What will he get? The Predictions

The experts place their bets on Conrad Black's fate

Macleans.ca staff | Dec 6, 2007 | 18:54:59

Macleans.ca asked a wide range of journalists, pundits and legal experts who have covered the trial to predict Conrad Black's sentence—and, more tellingly, to hand down their own sentence for the disgraced media tycoon.

Douglas Bell, columnist and blogger, Toronto Life
What he'll get: Eleven-and-a-half years
What he should get: Pass

Tom Bower, Black biographer and columnist
What he'll get: Ten years
What he should get: Ten years

Andrew Clark, reporter, The Guardian
What he'll get: Seven years
What he should get: Pass

John Coffee, law professor, Columbia University
What he'll get: Four years, or slightly more because he can't "keep his mouth shut"
What he should get: Three-to-five years

Rosie DiManno, columnist, Toronto Star
What he'll get: Six-to-eight years
What he should get: Two years less a day

Ruth Dudley Edwards, columnist, The Irish Independent
What he'll get: Seven-to-ten years
What he should get: Community service

Peter Henning, law professor, Wayne State University
What he'll get: Eight years, four months
What he should get: Whatever the judge decides

George Jonas, author and National Post columnist
What he'll get: Pass
What he should get: "Unconditional discharge"

Continued Below

Roger Martin, Dean, Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto
What he'll get: Eight-to-ten years
What he should get: Two-to-four years

James Morton, President, Ontario Bar Association
What he'll get: Approximately seven years
What he should get: Opinion withheld pending appeal

Peter C. Newman, author and columnist, Maclean's and Toronto Life
What he'll get: Just under ten years
What he should get: Less than that

Steven Skurka, lawyer and CTV legal analyst
What he'll get: Five-and-a-half years
What he should get: He'd get three years in Canada

Andrew Stoltmann, lawyer and investor advocate
What he'll get: Six years
What he should get: Fifteen years

Hugh Totten, lawyer, Perkins Coie
What he'll get: Seven-to-ten years
What he should get: Less than five years

Joe Warmington, columnist, Toronto Sun
What he'll get: No less than seven years, and as many as nine "because of his mouth"
What he should get: No more than four years

Rick Westhead, reporter, Toronto Star
What he'll get: Seven-to-ten years
What he should get: Pass

Peter Worthington, columnist, Toronto Sun
What he'll get: Seven years
What he should get: No jail time