274.5? 315? A U.S. election apéritif

Colby Cosh works to extract a signal from the noise while offering a lesson from the Alberta election

by Colby Cosh

New York magazine’s Adam Pasick has put together a charming collection of electoral vote forecasts from American political notables. Because most of these people have some known prior commitment to one side or the other, the table makes for an interesting diorama of America’s political camps: the Republicans and conservatives are all over the map, with as many predicting massive triumph for Mitt Romney as there are imagining disaster, and the Democrats and liberals/leftists are united behind a party line of certain victory, though nobody thinks it will be too impressive. Most of the latter are in a band between 285 Obama electoral votes and 305—keeping in mind that the president got 365 last time out. The most pessimistic Romney backer of the bunch, who I guess would have to be Buzz Bissinger, has a higher number for Obama than any of the overt Obama voters I can identify. Granted, he’s called Buzz for a reason (and that reason is that he is approximately three-quarters crazy on a good day).

If you throw out Jim Cramer’s prediction, which he made explicitly to set himself apart from the crowd and give himself a longshot chance of looking like a lone genius 24 hours from now (good luck with that), the mean of all guesses is 274½ electoral votes for Obama. The Republicans are running about 20 below that on average, the Democrats about 20 above. It may be noteworthy that absolutely none of the Democrats and liberals is willing to place Obama as high as FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver, whose mean EV estimate for the incumbent at this hour is 315 and rising.

Screening Pasick’s “pundits” for general cool-headedness, insider knowledge, or just having strong incentives to get the call right doesn’t seem to help extract a signal from the noise. Bowtied eminence George F. Will, who is a conservative but hardly the model of a death-or-glory demagogue, submitted exactly the same numbers as Glenn Beck. Slate’s Dave Weigel, perhaps the only person on the list who has officially declared He Is Not Voting For Either Of These Bozos, is predicting a narrow 276-262 Romney win.

In lieu of a prediction, because I am short on insights into this particular election and there’s no reason you should care either way, I would offer one warning from this spring’s Alberta vote: it is dangerous to attempt to infer the true state of a political race from the last-minute behaviour of the candidates. The Progressive Conservatives, widely perceived to be behind on the final weekend, appeared to be defending what ought to have been relatively safe ridings in Calgary and the province’s northeast. Although I was cautious and emerged from the election only lightly bespattered with facial egg, watching Premier Redford move about encouraged me to think the PCs really were in serious danger.

In fact, if you think about it, the ridings—or states—where a candidate can do the most marginal good with a late appearance are not necessarily the ones closest to parity or 50-50 overall. If a candidate is blitzing a state with TV ads, that may just mean the TV audience in that state is especially promising in some respect. If a candidate is visiting in person, he may be forsaking a closer but less tractable state race for one in which a weak organization needs the personal touch, or the youth vote has an unusual quantity of undecideds, or… well, you can imagine an infinity of scenarios yourself.

It is tempting to regard late candidate activity as a form of revealed preference, a Fool Killer that smashes through verbiage to the truth. Sometimes, though, it is not telling you what you might think. In this election, a late rush by both sides toward Pennsylvania, a vote-rich state that Obama won by 10 points in 2008, has people wondering if Romney really might be ahead nationally and putting the president on the ropes. Well, for all I know he might be. But the real signal is probably simpler than that: “Hey, Pennsylvania doesn’t have early voting.

274.5? 315? A U.S. election apéritif

  1. I’ve bet an entire $5 with my partner on Romney win and she takes Obama but neither one of likes either candidate. I pine for Mitch Daniels. It is sad day because I love American presidential elections and now it is almost over for another two and a half years.

    It is ever so fascinating because Dems treat Nate Silver like lodestar while Repubs are all fired up and ready to vote today and think polls are rigged in Obama’s favour. Lots of Repubs seem to have plans to vote today and then watch msnbc internally combust later this evening.

    • And then they’re all moving to Canada…liberals and conservatives both, when their candidate loses. I never had so much fun in my life explaining to my “Don’t Tread On Me” conservative neighbours why moving to Canada after the ACA passed was not really an option.

      • We have more than enough liberals in Canada but I would be delighted if you lied to your don’t tread on me neighbours and sent them up our way.

        Are you allowed to vote in American elections San Diego Dave? Happy voting if you are.

        • I’ve actually been told I CAN vote even though I’m not a citizen- which I find weird. Morally and ethically though, I cannot bring myself to do it- it’s just wrong.

          • I didn’t vote in Britain elections when I lived there, even tho I was allowed, because I didn’t think it was right for me to influence Parliament when I had no intention of staying in UK long term.

    • I bet $5 you and your partner have a joint bank account.

      • You lose, my partner and I inordinately kooky about our independence and there are no joint bank accounts.

        • Tony, you’re too smart – you win the $5.

          Post your ABM card number and PIN and I’ll access your account.

          • hahahaha, that’s funny. I was going to try and convince you I was poor beggar who actually needs that $5 and would you please supply your bank info.

    • You should just give her the $5 and get it over with.
      There’s essentially no chance Mittens will win.
      Honestly.

      • Peter Baker Twitter ~ Last time three presidents in a row won a 2nd term? Jefferson, Madison and Monroe.

        • It’s only happened once, until it happens again.

          • Indeed.

  2. What does Maclean’s legendary bear, Jasper http://www.waymarking.com/gallery/image.aspx?f=1&guid=edc3d73c-8549-4b50-96d7-3bfe1fa43cd3&gid=3
    predict for the outcome of this election? Local legend has it that on election day, if this yogi of yogis sees his shadow, it is four more years of incumbency. No shadow – then he foretells a period of indeterminate darkness.

    Unable to make it to down to town until after the polls close, my tongue currently stuck to a Whistlers mountain out of bounds frosted fence with a hastily scratched warning sign by a local “Danger, do not lick”, I have had a friend channel the weather forecast from Al Slick, the Hippy Dippy Weatherman who fearlessly predicts: “”Weather tonight: dark. Turning partly light by morning. p.s. God has no sense of humour”

    Dang. looks like I’ll have to wait for the final results to come in, the old fashioned way. Or until the warming rays of the sun release me from this funk.

  3. I find myself wondering if it will be similar in another way, namely that the polls turned out to be poor predictors of the final result. Most of the polls predicted some sort of Wild Rose win, but Redford surprised everyone. Maybe this one won’t be as close as predicted, whoever takes it.

  4. Out of curiosity, Mr. Cosh, what does crow taste like?

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