Go ahead, start being disappointed in the NDP now

by Colby Cosh

Okey-doke. Let’s think this NDP polling surge through. Tell you what: go ahead and pick some riding where the New Democrat is said to have a chance of knocking off a high-profile incumbent. We’ll take Justin Trudeau’s Papineau, which is thought to be in some danger from Laytonmania as its MP flits about stumping for Liberals elsewhere in the country. Visit the La Presse 2008 election map with me, select “Papineau” on the pulldown menu, and let’s see what the Little Prince’s victory there actually looked like…

In the constituency as a whole, remember, Trudeau got 41% of the vote. But try clicking on the dots that represent single-institution polls, mostly long-term care facilities. Trudeau ran at much, much better than 41% inside those buildings. At the Hôpital Jean-Talon, he got 45 of the 69 valid votes cast. At the Centre d’hébergement de soins de longue durée-Les Havres, he also got 45 of 69. He swept the Résidence St-Michel and the Résidence d’Iberville like a meth-crazed janitor.

Do you figure this pattern emerges because old folks love Justin Trudeau? I mean, I’m sure they do; he has a name they recognize. But vote totals like this also reflect the local knowledge of political professionals and their ability to devote resources to particular vote clusters—in short, “ground game” or “GOTV”. Seniors’ residences just happen to be where the effect of having a partisan machine—a network of operators who can pack buses, speak a second language, arrange targeted messaging, or, let’s face it, get a case of whisky to the right guy—is most visible. At every election, the same thing happens in workplaces, ethnic neighbourhoods, various kinds of drop-in and hang-out centre, condominiums and shopping malls. Votes come in bunches; it’s hard to gather them that way from a distance.

You’ll see the same telltale, heavily-weighted dots anywhere you look; Laurie Hawn hoovered them up in my Edmonton Centre riding in ’08. It’s awfully easy, you see, to conflate two distinct kinds of micro-scale analysis of the political landscape. The one that has received some attention is the regional scale: the NDP vote surge measured by the polls will be relatively efficient, voter for voter, in a place like B.C.’s Lower Mainland where the party is already strong, and will be relatively inefficient—at electing NDP candidates, that is—in Quebec ridings where the NDP might normally run below 2%. But at the even smaller scale, the building-by-building, neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood scale, the question is whether absentee, casual, or unfamiliar candidates will be able to deliver the level of vote share recorded by pollsters at all. This is Electoral Politics 101, but for a civilian observer outside a war room, looking at the La Presse maps impresses the truth upon one in a way that abstract knowledge doesn’t.

The NDP seems obviously poised to suffer a 2004-Democratic-Party-style letdown in which the bona fides of “youth” and “protest” and “internet” voters are questioned by those who overestimated their power, or pretended to, in the first place. Despite the last six days’ worth of polling, I am not, at this moment, convinced that the NDP is going to beat the Liberals either in seat total or national vote share. Wells’s First Rule still holds. And Lord knows the soul-searching I expect to see after the election qualifies as the “least exciting outcome”.




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Go ahead, start being disappointed in the NDP now

  1. If you are right, what are the consequences for how many seats the CPC gets. A majority? I'm worried that Harper doesn't seem too worried, because I do not want to see a Harper majority.

    • I rate the possibility of a Conservative majority higher than most would at this point. After all, it's hardly being discussed now. I still wouldn't bet on it at even money.

      • Hype is hype but a CPC majority is in the cards. Globe and Mail endorsement of Harper shows enough.

      • Hardly being discussed? I think it's being discussed constantly! The NDP surge is likely the only topic that's being discussed more.

        All a matter of perspective I guess.

        • Well, it's being discussed, but as a possibility that is no longer really on the cards, yeah?

          • Colby, are you really at -58?

          • I don't understand the question.

          • people on this site can give you a 'thumbs up/thumbs down', and it keeps a running total. It appears that you are at -56, which, to be honest, is the lowest number I have seen out here. You must be a s**t disturber. :)

    • Harper not being too worried could just be a sign of how out of touch and arrogant the man is. He doesn't believe the games of the House of Commons, the scandals or his contempt of Parliament will impact the way people vote. I have faith the people of the country will give him a wake-up call on May 2nd.

    • Of course let's continue to spend three to four hundred million every two years so you can vote twice as often. There is a reason why in democracies elections are held every four years, it's to give politicians a chance to do the right thing for the country instead of constantly buying votes to get reelected. I hope the NDP gets in you will be in for the shock of your life as did Ontarians when they elected Bob Ray. I supported the NDP for twenty years in the early days until I realized they could promise anything with everybody else's money.

  2. it would seem in this case that #1 and #3 contradict each other. Jack is sure smiling a lot. That is a scary thing.

  3. Colby, I'd normally agree, except when we consider the 2008 Quebec election. The ADQ was swept into official opposition.

    Can we compare 2011 NDP with 2008 ADQ?

    • I was thinking the exact same thing. Does anyone remember how the ADQ fared, compared to their last pre-election poll? Did people recoil at the last minute, or did ADQ suffer at the ballot box because they surprised themselves and didn't have the GOTV infrastructure in place? As I recall, late in the campaign people were talking about the possibility of Premier Dumont but my recollection is hazy, and I can't remember exactly how late it was.

        • Actually it looks like we meant to be talking about the 2007 Quebec election that swept the ADQ into opposition, not the 2008 election that decimated them. But thanks for the wiki link, the answer is there. The ADQ actually out-performed their polling numbers. No pre-election poll put them at higher than 30, except a single CROP poll at 31 two weeks before the election.

          Actual: PLQ 33%, ADQ 31%

          Angus Reid, 2 days before E-Day: PLQ 31%, ADQ 30%
          Leger, 2 days before E-Day: PLQ 35%, ADQ 26%

  4. I see a coalition in the works….

    Conservatives, and Liberals….

    Liberals would rather side with someone they hate, but knows how Government works, than pick Layton and his economic illiterates.

    • I mentioned this exact outcome to a couple of colleagues and got a look of disgust that you wouldn't believe.

      But it does seem like the path of least resistance. If the LPC allows themselves to be defined as a leftist party then they've lost the brand for good and the party will quickly become irrelevant. If they form a coalition with the CPC then they maintain a link to the right while proposing left social policy.

      The problem, of course, is the sheer institutional revulsion that the CPC has toward the LPC, and vice versa. It's like forcing two opposed magnets together.

      • I think it would be interesting if the Libs got so small they were absorbed by the CPC, but the CPC took their next leader and most policy from the pool of Liberals. Have that group square off against an NDP with support in cities, the West and Quebec.

        • I still like having at least three parties. It makes for really interesting outcomes, like this, and completely destroys the effectiveness of attack ads. At least, that's what I hope we learn this time. :)

      • Yep….can't see it happening until Iggy calls it quits and heads back to Harvard. He hates harper with a passion, and given his ego, would rather see Canada suffer under the NDP, than to help Harper remain the PM.

        After all…what stake does iggy have in Canada other than a birth certificate? He's heading back to his villa in France, or his home near Harvard. Let the great unwashed in Canada worry about the debt.

        • Ignatieff is going to be a problem, but his fate may not be up to him after this election. It would be a fitting end should he be pushed out, after the coup he organized against Dion. Not that Dion didn't have to go, but for all the talk about "respecting democracy", Ignatieff did assume his leader's position without the customary leadership race…

        • how do you know that he 'hates Harper with a passion'?

          If the Liberal elites hadn't hand picked him, and had he come to Canada on his own, he probably would be in the CPC camp right now.

    • If the Conservatives win a reduced minority, and the NDP get anywhere close to what the polls are indicating, a CPC/LPC coalition would sure look like a coalition of losers.

    • This is a pragmatic conclusion. Unfortunately these elections are rather like a poker game. Pragmatic solutions go to hell.

  5. It always comes down to the grassroots worker in each riding – case closed – this is the real gold in the CPC and is why Harper is always ready to aleinate large groups of voters to keep his base happy = by the way folks that's ME and a lot of other like me. Through the years I worked for the Federal Liberal Party, The Federal Conservative Party and Provincially the Liberal Party in BC …and I will let people in on a little secret – Harper is light years beyond any other leader I have dealt with and he responds to our local concerns – in point of fact he drops everytrhing when we worker bees get upset – remember the anthem idea … that night a bunch of us drones said NO WAY JOSE and let the office know – and the next morning POOF idea in trashcan – this has happened time and time again and compared to the invisible leadership in the Liberals it is WONDERFULL and motivates us to keep working away in our local riding which by the way I have more than 20 people lined up to drive to the polls already and more to come and each get a nice little vote CPC and have a good day :) – I wonder how many harper haters here on this forum do same for the LPT = hahahaha!

    • Yes, they have your vote. But to get a majority they need other people's votes. That's the thing Tories don't seem to get. Do you think a previous NDP or Liberal voter will read your post and think "That's a gang I want to throw my hat in with this time"?

    • It's called 'stroking'.

      Flatter the little guy, make him feel important and 'special', and he'll work his buns off for you. It costs nothing, and pays off big-time.

      If the need arises though, you'll be tossed under the bus without a second's hesitation.

      • Conservative Constitutional amendment

        All candidates will be required to have riding offices staffed with a sufficent number of sacrificial lambs, minimum required is one per day for duration of campaign.

      • Sounds like you know Jack and the NDP well………………..

        • I've never been anywhere near the NDP.

          I have, however, been PC and Reform/CA

          • You don't have the shibboleths that would make anyone believe you've ever been involved with the Reform Party. Stop lying about it, you aren't fooling anyone.

          • I am, as I have always been, 'socially progressive, fiscally conservative'.

            That used to be the PCs.

            Reform/CA is nothing like that….which is why I left after having been riding president.

          • You missed the point; Catcher was equating the NDP with the type of behaviour towards aids you were describing, not telling you how you've voted in the past.

          • Except the NDP isn't the party doing that.

          • Really? The NDP have never thrown some one under the bus in Layton's entire term as leader? That's a bit of a tough sell.

          • I have no idea, since I don't pay any attention to the NDP….but you might want to ask Patrick Muttart about the Cons.

          • All right here's the fallacy of your line of arguments. 1) You claim the Tories in a particular riding campaign office are preparing to throw their volunteers under the bus. With no really backing, besides from a dictionary definition of a term everyone already understands.
            2) You declare the NDP have never exhibited any of the behaviours you're equating to the Tories
            3) You admit you have no knowledge to back the above belief up with since you don't follow the NDP. Please let that sink in.
            and 4) you attempt to deflect that lack of knowledge with a "but the Tories (not Cons in this nation if one has any respect for hundreds of years of history) do it too."
            No one is saying the Conservatives have never thrown people who work for their party under the bus. Generally speaking those individuals are medium rank strategists or speech writers and not riding volunteers, so you got that bit wrong. However, it is not a Conservative thing to do so, it is not a Liberal thing and it is not an NDP thing. It's a politician thing. It's wrong, but it will continue to happen when we only zero in on it when it is done by a party one doesn't like, as it appears you are currently doing.

          • Don't bother with her.
            She is smarter than you, she knows more about economics, politics, geography, psychology, sports, religion, health, the environment, and I would guess sex, than you or anyone else who posts here. You will never prove her wrong, as she will just move the goalposts. She does well in the Liberal camp.

      • My god, could you be more condescending to the poster you're responding too?

        • My god, could you be less unaware of a standard public relations practice?

      • you are so smart to be able to see the obvious, that even the people who work there do not see. . .

    • yeah yeah yeah, your vote cacels out all'ours.

  6. Unless you are a long-time NDP`er, or a Utopian idealist, or just plain uninformed, it is going to be difficult to vote NDP on Monday.
    I don`t know how much thought those who claimed a voting intention of NDP in recent polls have put into the MP they are voting for. One NDP candidate in Oshawa went to Caribbean in the middle of the campaign, another in Quebec went to Vegas for a few days, another NDP candidate in her 70`s is unable to be found—Jeez, these guys seem like they would be better suited for the Senate !

    If there is a large vote for these weak, inexperienced NDP candidates, then it will confirm what I always suspected, but always seems to be denied around here. Voters, especially swing voters, vote for the Party and it`s leader, not the candidate whose name happens to appear on the ballot.

    • Voters, especially swing voters, vote for the Party and it`s leader, not the candidate whose name happens to appear on the ballot.

      I've never denied this, Blue, just bemoaned it. :)

    • Yeah, yeah, yeah. And Conservative candidates have been ducking the media, all candidates meetings and refusing to answer questionnaires from coast to coast for three elections now. Is there something magical about billboards that makes a "real" campaign?

  7. An intelligent analysis, finaly. Merci pour ça! I wonder however if GOTV might not in the future lose some of its importance. There could be other ways of doing things as demonstrated by the U of Guelph example recently, that being if you can't bring the voter to the polling station, then bring the polling station to the voter. In Saint-Boniface (Manitoba), the special poll provision was used I believe to allow the less-mobile institutionalized elderly to vote. A mobile polling station went from room to room and voter participation was quite high (and quite liberal, although the incumbent liberal candidate lost). I wonder if the Justin Trudeau numbers cited are from such mobile polls. If so, it also indicates the importance of having a Returning Officer who, while not openly sympathetic to a particular party, could have some influence in getting the numbers up by putting in place more special polls.

  8. So, here is the best post I've seen regarding the polling situation…. http://impolitical.blogspot.com/2011/04/memories-
    And it does support the views of Colby here,
    Time for some sobering perspective for everyone who is over-indulging in orange kool-aid….

  9. I appreciate your analysis, Colby, but we're starting to talk about a 15% differential between the BQ and NDP. This is to the point where the BQ ground game will almost start working against them, as they're just bringing NDP voters to the booth.

    • That's a really good point. At a certain point of separation between the two parties, the "ground game" becomes less important (after all, if the NDP were polling at 60% in Quebec and the BQ at 20% would we even talk about the BQ's more impressive ground game?). I don't know where the line is crossed, but at some point a party is too far ahead for even a party with a much superior infrastructure to keep up.

  10. I disagree – seat projection tools are all seriously underestimating the likely NDP haul of seats, because their models are full of old polls and old election results. Such tools have had an important framing effect on pundits, so that even if the NDP underperforms in the popular vote due to weak GOTV, they are almost certain to win more seats than "expected".

    • Couldn't that work the other way, too? Their current models might be overestimating the NDP seat count, couldn't they? After all, perhaps more than any other party, their vote tends to be scattered and thin. Right?

  11. But I don't expect the NDP to knock off Justin Trudeau. Honestly, I think only a very dreamy NDPer could envision a scenario like that.

    However, Peggy Nash will probably knock off Gerard Kennedy, Fantino will likely knock off Volpe, etc etc.

    I expect the NDP will make some gains this election. Which would be great — democratic change and voter mercury and dissatisfaction should keep our fearless leaders on their toes.

    • I don't think Fantino is running against Volpe. Pretty sure they are different ridings

  12. But I don't expect the NDP to knock off Justin Trudeau. Honestly, I think only a very dreamy NDPer could envision a scenario like that.

    But that's what Cosh's analysis is suggesting. The Liberal ground game, so to speak, in ridings like Trudeau's will probably save his bacon. Unless, of course, NDP support eats at Liberal support and the Bloc come up the middle, or some such predicament.

  13. GOTV is dead. Heck, the leader's tour is dead (see Rick Mercer's Maclean's column today: http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/28/is-stephen-har…. Campaigning is completely ephemeralized. Power goes to he who best exploits this ephemeralization. And who could possibly be more ephemeralized than Jack Layton? And I say this as someone who has always voted NDP, and will do so on Monday.

  14. Maybe just a lazy old foot soldier trying to come up with excuses why he hasn't lifted a finger in this campaign.

  15. "I am not, at this moment, convinced that the NDP is going to beat the Liberals either in seat total or national vote share."

    I agree that it is unlikely that NDP going to have more seats than Libs after election but I also well remember Rae/NDP/1990. So Libs will beat NDP, unless they don't.

    I would be delighted if NDP do better than Libs in seat total – freakin awesome – Lib voters are never going back.

    "And Lord knows the soul-searching I expect to see after the election qualifies as the “least exciting outcome”.

    Left wing types do peculiar soul searching. It is never them, never their policies. Always leader's fault or the electorate are to blame, too dense to see brilliance of leader.

  16. This comment was deleted.

    • CAPITALS make you LOOK like a CRAZY PERSON and do not HELP your CAUSE.

      • STOP trying to scare people into NOT VOTING FOR JACK by pointing out STUPID and IRRELEVANT things like CAPITALIZATION, you EVIL LYING NEOCON FASCIST SLAVE to BIG OIL corporations that RAPE our environment and sell our PRECIOUS BODILY FLUIDS to the AMERICANS!!!!!!!!!

        ;-)

  17. I don't think people pay close enough attention to domestic Canadian politics for us to take much of a hit even for some crazy NDP cabinet minister. After all, people still do business with Italy! LOL And I'd also point out again that I don't think anyone on the right is any more scared of an NDP government than NDP supporters were of a Tory government. I think it's actually the relative moderation of the Harper Tories in government that makes people as open as they may be to the NDP.

    • And I'd also point out again that I don't think anyone on the right is any more scared of an NDP government than NDP supporters were of a Tory government.

      That is probably true. Then again, the average tory voter probably has his life and his finances in order, and does not need government handouts, while the average NDP voter (pre-surge) probably sucks at the government teat, either directly on welfare or works at some dumb NGO that needs government funding to operate.

      There is also the fact that the average tory voter is a lot more realist and less hysterical and ideological then the pre-surge NDP voters.

      • I think your stereotypes of NDP voters may be much too broad. There are plenty of "champagne socialists" after all. There are actually rich and successful people out there who think that they should be paying more taxes, or who at the very least would be happy to pay more taxes to help out those less fortunate.

        • If that is true, they can donate to charity. Taking from others to give to others really should be called stealing. :)

  18. I am not entirely convinced by Cosh’s analysis here. For an example of an alternate analysis, take a look at the La Presse data for the riding of Ottawa Centre and Nepean. Paul Dewar-NDP won Ottawa Centre, with some comfort, over the Liberals. However, like in Papineau, when you take a close look at the map, there are little Blue dots scattered across it. What are these? Predominantly seniors residences. Does that mean the Conservatives had a better ground game in Ottawa Centre?

    A little bit to the south in Nepean, the riding went solidly Blue for John Baird, but there are a few Orange dots, where?… Algonquin College residences. Did the NDP have a better ground organization in a riding they lost?

    So, are these examples of organizational strength on the ground, or just natural clusters of like-minded people? Probably a bit of both – but I think it calls into question Cosh’s theory that organization on the ground is what makes the difference in collecting vote clusters.

    • Nepean went solidly blue for the gormless Pierre Poilievre. John Baird is one riding to the north, where the results have been colourfully mixed in every election in this century.

      • Sorry for the confusion about the riding. Algonquin College is in Ottawa West – Nepean: John Baird’s riding. Last election it was Blue with a good mix of red. The only real Orange standout is the Algonquin College residence. My original point vis-a-vis Cosh’s point still stands.

  19. stroke someone's ego

    Fig. to flatter and praise someone.' If you have trouble with him, just take a few minutes and stroke his ego. You'll soon have him eating out of your hand.'
    See also: ego, stroke
    McGraw-Hill Dictionary of American Idioms and Phrasal Verbs. © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

    • Again, I understand you know what stroking some one's ego implies. That's not what I took issue with. What I do take issue with is you're slapping that particular label on another posters experiences in a way that clearly attempted to belittle him. If you're wondering how you so attempted to be condescending check out the post you're responding to. As in actually read it instead of looking for the bits you want to get angry about.

  20. You said it much better than I could have, but that's precisely what I was driving at.

    Everything in moderation, including moderation.

  21. I suppose the difference would be that we've got empirical evidence that North American & European conservative social policies don't lead to dystopian societies envisioned by Atwood in "A Handmaid's Tale", whereas there's ample evidence that socialist economic policies actually do ruin economies. Despite years of rule by conservatives in North America, women continue to make gains in the workplace, gay marriage is legal in Canada, there is separation of church & state, and abortion remains legal and widely accessible. On the other hand, socialist economic policies have brought several European nations to the edge of bankruptcy and stunted economic growth in several Canadian provinces over the past couple of decades.

    • there's ample evidence that socialist economic policies actually do ruin economies

      Who's economic problems would you rather have right now, those faced by the United States of America, or those faced by Sweden?

      • the salient point is that those economic problems, american or swedish, were brought on by socialist policies.

        • I thought the salient point there was that the socialist Swedes don't really have many economic problems.

          Certainly not in comparison to the capitalist Americans!

          • ok sorry, greeks, portugese, italians, spaniards, …

          • Well, personally, I think maybe we shouldn't follow the socialists or the capitalists. If we want economic success, let's follow the communists! After all, they've recently purchased the world's largest capitalist economy. In fact, the only reason the Greeks, Portuguese, Italians and Spaniards are doing worse than the Americans is that the Chinese aren't bailing them out!

            LOL

          • alfanerd:
            Greece, Portugal,Italy and Spain are not 'socialist' countries. Certainly not to the same extent that Denmark/Sweden/Norway/Finland/Iceland are.

          • "capitalist Americans" spend more, per capita, on health care than we do. wouldn't that make them socialist?

          • LdKitchenersOwn: "I think your stereotypes of NDP voters may be much too broad. "

            LdKitchenersOwn one hour later : "Everything Sweden does is socialist! Everything America does it capitalist!"

      • What about Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, the UK, and France? Or California, Oregon, or New York State? Going a little further afield, how's Hugo Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution working out for Venezuela? In Canada, would you rather have BC's economy or Quebec's?

        • You think that New York, Oregon, California and the UK are run by socialists? Given your list, is there a government on the planet that ISN'T socialist???

          Also, I seem to remember most of those countries economies (the whole world economy actually) being thrown for a loop by the work of a bunch of capitalist bankers going nuts. I can't believe that we've forgiven Wall Street so fast for the mess they caused, but that we're actually now blaming the problems they caused on their natural enemies just floors me. Those guys at Goldman Sachs must be laughing SO HARD at us right now.

          • It was mostly causes by greed an stupidity. they need our money to be able to steal our money. We didn't have to give it too them. . .

          • The UK was governed by Labour until recently – their social democratic policies led to the current structural economic problems. California, Oregon, and New York State also have legislatures that've pushed the same type of social spending that has led to structural deficits. The capitalist banker issue only addresses issues related to revenue – governments don't really have much control over international finance in any case. What they do have control over is spending, and social democratic/socialist policies inevitably err on the side of expenditures exceeding revenues.

    • And on the flip-side, socialist policies hae greatly strengthened Canada economically and socially, while in other places conservative policies hae brought many nations to the edge of bankruptcy etc.

      Policies should not be weighed on which side of the political spectrum they originate from, or which words they are tagged by, but on their own merit. I don't agree with the NDP on most issues, but economically their platform will do no greater/less damage than any other.

      The only real difference between the three parties is fiscal management, not economic stability. Canada's economy will do just as well under all the parties, as there is little meaningful difference between them. The impact of fiscal management on the economy is negligible.

      The NDP is not a socialist party any longer. Trying to associate them with other goernments is just disengenious. Their platform is not good, but neither is any of the other parties, and all the other parties are just as bad at math.

      • I don't know how you can seriously claim that the NDP platform will not cause economic damage. They're anti-free trade, anti-oil industry, cater to protectionist labour lobbies, and constantly propose policies that ignore the effect of price signals on market behaviours. Just one example of problems with their economic policies: they want to double CPP benefits at the very time that a demographic shift is going to threaten the stability of the existing system. The only way that's going to work is to increase contributions by employees and businesses. In businesses like the tech sector, one of the major contributors to R&D expenses are wages. Adding another 4-8% to the cost of R&D is a heck of a way to enable a transition to a high tech economy of the future!

  22. Why come onto a site like this except to debate? Have an honest to god discusion? Which means I counter your points and you counter mine. Not, I counter your points and then you get snippity. If you're not willing to back up you're points then don't spew them out there in the first place.

  23. I think there is a limit to how much the ground game can make a difference. It can't make up for a 7 point difference in polling, IMO.

    • …and it CERTAINLY can't make up for a 15 or 20 point gap, imo!

      Nanos had the NDP at 42.5% popular support in Quebec today compared to 25.1% for the Bloc. Those numbers could be wrong, but if they're right then I think the Bloc's ground game would have to involve Jesus coming back for them to not get trashed by a party leading them by more than 15% in the polls.

      • Yes, they could be wrong, but we've seen a big NDP lead in multiple polls from multiple firms, so it's legit. I agree, as hard to believe as it is, the NDP lead is too big to not translate into a win in seats.

  24. I tend to agree at 20%. If there's really a gap of 20% in popular support between the NDP and the Bloc, then short of the Bloc sending JESUS to those retirement homes to whip up votes, I don't think there's anything that a "better ground game" can do for them.

  25. The Sherbrooke Declaration gives sovereignty supporters reason to switch. That's a lot of dots!!

    "NDP would recognize a majority decision (50% + 1) of the Quebec people in a referendum on the political status of Quebec. The right to self-determination implies that Assemble nationale is able to write a referendum question, the citizens of Quebec are able to answer it freely."

    This would gut the Clarity Act of 2000.
    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/27/ma….

  26. VCBC, click on her name and look over her posts. You are wasting your time trying to talk with her. She is kind of like those old guys in the Muppet show. Sitting on the sideline and ridiculing people. Best to ignore folk like this, and if yo live near them – move. lol

  27. We have no idea who sponsored the polls that "indicated" a huge swing to the NDP or drop in Liberal Support or Conservatives losing ground. Most media fail in their responsibility to identify the sponsors of polls — and that is crucially important to determining the validity of the so-called results. When an organization commissions a poll from researchers, it almost always is asked by the pollsters: "Tell us the results you want and we'll draft the questions."
    Polling is a business just like any other. Customer satisfaction is vitally important. Political polls are BS

  28. The vast MAJORITY of Canadians support the NDP and /or Liberal government . I'm all for a coalition , anything but harper.

    In a democracy , majority rules .

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