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A fearless election prediction


 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuL2SgVIegM

I finished dead last in the office election prediction pool in 2007, so take this with a grain of salt. Here goes nuthin’:

Liberals: 76

PQ: 43

ADQ: 6

If I’m right, or anywhere close, I think we’ve seen the end of Mario Dumont and the ADQ. Sure, they might putter around for a bit, but Dumont’s opening line as a bruised and battered boxer on Dieu Merci! should eventually serve as an epitaph for his political career: “I think I should have stuck with the lightweights.”

I should add that I’ll be blogging from my couch while I watch the results tonight. Drop by around 7:30 p.m.


 

A fearless election prediction

  1. So all the pissed of Quebecers I have been reading about for the past week are about to vote Lib, the federalist party?

  2. Great line !

  3. @jwl: I can’t quite wrap my head around it, either. Although, if there isn’t going to be a referendum and there isn’t going to be some other massive projet de société under a PQ government, then why bother voting Marois? She had a pretty tough sales job on her hands—and “Charest is arrogant” never seemed like the attack line that was going to make it any easier.

  4. I’m no fan of the Quebec Liberals and I ain’t a sovereignist, but I do love those ADQ numbers, bravo Mario.

  5. Philippe

    Do you have any idea why Marois/PQ didn’t stir up the separatist talk last week? If Marois was lacking a ‘narrative’ I wonder why she didn’t jump all over Harper/Cons/Anti-Quebec last week. Seems tailor made for the provincial sovereignist party, unless separatism is a non-starter in Quebec now.

    And I thought Marois was the arrogant one, not Charest.

  6. @jwl: I suspect the problem with the angry separatist routine is that it doesn’t contrast very well with a rival who’s campaigning on stability for the economy’s sake. Had she gone all righteous and annoyed, she was running a serious risk of looking petulant, too.

    That said, she’s probably going to lose, so it’s hard to argue she made the right decision. I’m just not sure there was a correct decision in this case, especially given how late in the game all that nonsense in Ottawa got going.

  7. “angry separatist routine is that it doesn’t contrast very well with a rival who’s campaigning on stability for the economy’s sake.”

    Thanks Philippe. I didn’t think of it that way, makes sense.

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