At DMA, tomorrow’s polls today (AKA good news for the Charest Liberals)


Que Elxn PLQ 200702027 TOPIX

“Smells like… victory.” (CP photo)

A little birdy told me some news. It seems there is a new poll coming out tomorrow, and it looks good for Jean Charest’s Liberals come election night on December 8th. Read it first after this here break…

According to a CROP poll set for release tomorrow, the Liberals are at 45 percent, the PQ has 29 and the ADQ is at 15. Charest’s Libs are at exactly the same level as the last CROP poll of November 25, while the PQ has lost three percentage points and the ADQ has gained two.

Plug these numbers into HKDP’s handy magic seat predictor machine, and here’s what you get: 82 Liberal seats, 41 Péquiste, and two ADQ.

(For the sake of balancing the numbers I gave a few more points to Québec Solidaire and to the Green Party.)

A couple of things.

1) The ADQ has traditionally polled lower than their actual vote. It’s why they surprised the bejesus out of everyone last year. Were I a betting man, which I am, I’d venture to say they might be able to eek out a couple more seats. In any event, it seems Mario Dumont’s party is in for a good, old fashioned spanking on Monday night.

2) These numbers explain why Charest himself has been so sanguine as of late, batting away reporters’ questions like a bored pussycat. (Read Boisvert’s “The Crowning of a Leader” for more on this.)

3) It indicates why Marois has seemingly given up any pretense of forming a government. “I hope it isn’t going to be a Charest majority,” she told Bernard Derome last night.

4) All of this is hooey if some easily excitable yahoo decides to stomp on a Quebec flag, or some such thing, at the large, partisan rallies being held across the country this weekend. Like, say, this one.


At DMA, tomorrow’s polls today (AKA good news for the Charest Liberals)

  1. Wow, that’s wonderful news!

    I can hardly believe that Jean Charest, who for some reason I still of as Mulroney’s curly-hared young Minister for Sport, is about to win his third election as Premier. You wake up one morning and he’s like Bourassa.

  2. I’m surprised that Harper’s metaphoric flag stomping during the last week hasn’t had more effect. Any ideas why not?

  3. Sorry, make that “curly-haired.” Though he does somewhat resemble a curly hare, come to think of it.

  4. Yes, interesting, eh, Sean? Esp. since I thought Marois was beating the big humiliation drum for all she was worth. Long live la province raisonnable.

  5. Harper almost had me sending a large donation to the BQ and PQ this week. And I’m a federalist living in Ontario.

  6. I know the feeling. Man, I’ve spent most of my adult life loathing the Bloc (that is, I’ve loathed the Bloc for most of my adult life), but compared to the Harperite venom they now seem like sweet reason itself. Very weird.

    I’m starting to think the country is doomed, by inches. This whole mess has resulted from Harper’s hubris, truly enough, but more deeply from the presence of the Bloc in Parliament and what that does to majority/minority math. I just don’t think it’s feasible to govern this country in a perpetual minority situation — that’s not what the Westminster system was made for, anyway — and yet if 25% of the seats are automatically off the table you’ve got endless minorities. This week is just a foretaste of hell.

  7. With two polls out today showing the Conservatives ahead with 44% and 46% we may not have to worry about the Bloc influence much longer.

    A Charest majority will be good for Canada and good for Harper.

  8. Martin Patriquin or anyone else for that matter

    What is Dumont’s future? Is he going to keep ADQ going forever or is he going to pack it in one day, get a proper job and let his party disappear?

    And I too am interested to hear why Charest is doing so well after all the stories the past few days of how Quebecers are not feeling the love from ROC.

  9. Now that the focus will be off of the coalition (DION!) and some MUCH needed attention spent on Harper’s autocratic ways, me thinks those rosy numbers Harper sees today will vanish.

    If Charest wins a majority, will there be an opening for him to suceed Harper, considering Harper’s prospects in Quebec are pretty slim now?

  10. “considering Harper’s prospects in Quebec are pretty slim now?”

    Why not have a federal election and find out for sure whose prospects are better throughout the whole country?

    I’d like the left to advise me here…

    Are we Canadians not supposed to oppose Quebec separatists?

  11. Alright Jim, I take it back, after the last election when Quebec voters rejected Tin Pot Harper’s quest for a majority, they are ready to embrace him after this goofy stunt.

    I look forward to the next federal election.

  12. Blues Chair: You didn’t understand my point or my question.

  13. Of course Canadians should oppose separatists (who are Canadians). Tin Pot Harper is strong that way… unless he needs their votes to pass a budget.

  14. “Crowning” of a leader?

  15. Charest is doing well because he beats the humiliation drum(love that expression) with the best of them. Wasn’t that Charest who whined about some budgetary cuts to street performance artists , suggesting that it was cultural genocide?

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