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Bumper-to-bumper Republican race drags on after Romney fails to take off on Super Tuesday


 

Even after securing six out of 10 victories on Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney continues to be a weakling front-runner. His wins yesterday were not as resounding as expected, giving hopes to his opponents that he might still be a beatable candidate.

There is no shaking off Romney’s image as the that-will-have-to-do candidate.

Here’s how the Globe put it:

Indeed, if Mr. Romney cannot win the nomination on the strength of his personality or policies, he aims to secure it through a mathematical war of attrition.

And here’s the New York Times’ take:

Mitt Romney won the delegates, but not necessarily the argument.

CNN:

Romney fails to attract conservative support.

The BBC’s Mark Mardel:

Mitt Romney has inched ahead. On paper, looking at the mathematics, he is obviously the winner. But the point is he’s failed to seal the deal. He has the best organisation and the most money but can’t deliver a knockout blow.

International Spanish-language newspaper El País:

And the winner is… Obama!

You get the picture.

 


 
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Bumper-to-bumper Republican race drags on after Romney fails to take off on Super Tuesday

  1. whoever walks away with the GOP nomination will have won a Pyrrhic victory at best.

    • Romney averages a 5.1 point deficit with Obama, part of which is the product of the divisions brought out during a primary race. That is hardly an insurmountable lead. At this time in 2008, McCain led Obama. At this time in 2004, Kerry led Bush in the polls. Obama’s re-election is hardly inevitable (it’s the most likely outcome, but it’s more like 60-40 than it is 90-10).

  2. As usual the “conventional” (as in pundits, but not people who know things about American politics) wisdom is dead wrong. Romney went in with a large lead in terms of delegates, and he extended that lead. Unfortunately the braindead narrative is about “state wins” – I can only imagine how much bloviating there would be if say, Romney won 13000 fewer votes in Ohio (an outcome that would have changed nothing materially).

    Here are the delegate counts from Super Tuesday states (a few delegates still have to be decided), drawn from the realclearpolitics site:
    Romney: 208
    Santorum: 84
    Gingrich: 68
    Paul: 21

    It doesn’t matter how many states you win – you need to account for the delegate allocation rules and the margin of victory. For instance, Romney won all 38 delegates in Massachusetts, 43 in Virginia, all 32 delegates in Idaho, etc. In contrast, where Santorum won, he didn’t win by much. In Oklahoma he got 14 delegates, Romney got 13. In North Dakota he got 11 to Romney’s 7. Even though Ohio was tied vote-wise, Romney won 35 delegates to Santorum’s 21.

    What I really don’t get is what benchmark you guys are comparing Romney to. He’s doing better than Obama did against Hillary. He’s arguably doing better than McCain (though McCain was helped by winner-take-all primaries and an accelerated primary calendar). Intrade has him at a 90% probability of winning the nomination, the Iowa markets have him higher. If you guys really believe that there is a chance he is going to lose, put your money where your mouth is.

    • Nice stats, it shows the road forward for Romney should be a smooth one.
       
      The author of this ‘article’ however, is just another lemming of the Main Stream Media trying to belittle Romney’s clear victory. I notice they didn’t comment on the Democraps Primary in Oklahoma where Obama won with 57% of the vote!
       
       
       
      Listen up People, he wasn’t running against anybody…….
       
      The solution is to pick your media source wisely; and Macleans certainly doesn’t qualify.

      • I think the media is biased, but they are biased in favour of the more interesting story and laziness. Hillary Clinton’s campaign was aided by a similar narrative (one I bought into at the time), although she had little chance after Super Tuesday. Plus it is easier to focus on state wins rather than delegate counts.

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