Can Obama escape those unemployment numbers?

The latest U.S. job creation numbers are disappointing, as unemployment hit 9.1% with only 54,000 new jobs created in May. They’re especially discouraging when contrasted with the 244,000 new jobs that emerged in April. President Obama had trouble hiding his disappointment when he talked about ‘bumps in the road,’ while visiting a Chrysler auto plant last week to highlight the domestic auto-manufacturing comeback following its bailout. His spokespeople emphasized that over 2 million private sector jobs were created in the past 15 months. Yet, it’s hard to overlook the fact that 13.9 million Americans are still out of work and 45% have been unemployed for more than six months.

Republican presidential candidates and critics have labeled Obama’s efforts on the economy a failure. His supporters counter by pointing to the belief by many economists that the 2009 stimulus saved nearly 2 to 3 million jobs and the TARP program brought back financial stability.

Obama’s administration has also argued that it has, admittedly with the GOP’s help, produced other ‘stimulus’ measures by reducing payroll taxes, signing free trade agreements (ratification to come) and establishing a task force to reduce business related regulations. It is becoming obvious, however, that the GOP wants to make the next general election a referendum on Obama’s economic policies.

With polls showing a majority disapproving of Obama’s handling of the economy, Republican candidates—such as potential frontrunner Mitt Romney—see a bone to gnaw at and will use it as a way to pin the economic woes of the nation on Obama. Will it work? Can the Republicans extend their midterm success in capturing the House of Representatives to one of winning the presidency?

If the unemployment numbers inch up towards 10%, they may have a point. Even prominent Democrats like Howard Dean admit that the economy could be the deciding factor. Already, pundits refer to the figure of 7.2% unemployment as a ceiling: no incumbent has ever been re-elected when the figure was higher. And the way thing are going, it’s unlikely that the current recovery will result in a figure in the vicinity of 7.2% by election time. That means if Obama wins, it will be with the highest unemployment figure in history.

So, is the economy the only issue that will determine how voters will choose in 2012? True, the economy may have led Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush to becoming one-term presidents, but that would be ignoring other factors that contributed to their defeats. Carter had over 400 hostages in Iranian hands for over a year and seemed helpless in asserting U.S. power. And Bush lost in large part because Ross Perot earned 19% of the popular vote as an independent candidate (Clinton won the 1992 election with only 42%).

Candidates are scrutinized for how they handle their ‘hard’ power responsibilities (the economy and national security) and their ‘soft’ power duties (Can he be trusted? Will he keep us safe? Does he have his priorities straight?). So far, polls are indicating that Obama is very competitive on ‘hard’ power issues and the current deficit and debt battle indicate he has some advantages regarding taxing the top 1% of earners and preserving Medicare from being a voucher-directed program a la Paul Ryan. The killing of Osama Bin Laden was also a boon to his national security credentials.

On the ‘soft ‘power front, Obama’s personal favourables remain high. People like the man and his family. They seem to acknowledge his intelligence and find his coolness under pressure reassuring. They also understand that he inherited two wars, not of his making, and the worst economy since the Great Depression. Finally, Americans remain proud of choosing the first African American president, they want him to succeed, and a majority currently wish him to be reelected.

It is obviously too early to predict the outcome of the next campaign. Suffice it to say that unless there is a second recession in 4 years, Obama may have a chance to be evaluated beyond issues of the economy.




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Can Obama escape those unemployment numbers?

  1. No, no more than we can…or anyone else. It’s happening all over the world.

  2. “Republican presidential candidates and critics have labeled Obama’s efforts on the economy a failure. His supporters counter by pointing to the belief by many economists that the 2009 stimulus saved nearly 2 to 3 million jobs and the TARP program brought back financial stability.”

    And now it starts all over again. 

    Obama is in big trouble if he is arguing “Yes, but other conditions deteriorated faster than anticipated …” in one year’s time. Which Obama will  be because no way economy is turning around that fast. Proof is in pudding, people are not impressed with argument that it would have been worse without me. 

    Will be curious to see who Repub nominee will be. Romney is leader at moment but he’s not that great a fit for party. Many evangelical Repubs do not like Mormons and Romney introduced public health care in Massachusetts and that will dilute Repub’s message that ObamaCare is bad, bad, bad. 

    I was hoping Daniels would get in race but no joy. I hope Palin gets in now, she is making msm look very bad at moment and Tea Party people are laughing with her. I would be delighted if Palin won nomination. It is time for ordinary person to be President, enough with Ivy League.
    —-
    “In early 2009, the United States was engaged in an intense public debate over a proposed $800 billion stimulus bill designed to boost economic activity through government borrowing and spending. James Buchanan, Edward Prescott, Vernon Smith, and Gary Becker, all Nobel laureates in economics, argued that while the stimulus might be an important emergency measure, it would fail to improve economic performance. 

    Nobel laureates Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, on the other hand, argued that the stimulus would improve the economy and indeed that it should be bigger. Fierce debates can be found in frontier areas of all the sciences, of course, but this was as if, on the night before the Apollo moon launch, half of the world’s Nobel laureates in physics were asserting that rockets couldn’t reach the moon and the other half were saying that they could. Prior to the launch of the stimulus program, the only thing that anyone could conclude with high confidence was that several Nobelists would be wrong about it.

    But the situation was even worse: it was clear that we wouldn’t know which economists were right even after the fact. Suppose that on February 1, 2009, Famous Economist X had predicted: “In two years, unemployment will be about 8 percent if we pass the stimulus bill, but about 10 percent if we don’t.” 

    What do you think would happen when 2011 rolled around and unemployment was still at 10 percent, despite the passage of the bill? It’s a safe bet that Professor X would say something like: “Yes, but other conditions deteriorated faster than anticipated, so if we hadn’t passed the stimulus bill, unemployment would have been more like 12 percent. So I was right: the bill reduced unemployment by about 2 percent.”

    http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_3_social-science.html

    • Yeah but when that Paul Revere rode through the town and then he kept those banks from forclosin’ on John Adams house so he warned the French that the Americans would stop them British which is why we love our freedom. 

      Nice and simple response there to you big eastern hoity-toity establishment type there eh?

      You betcha!

      • I think Palin is picking obscure knowledge about Tea Party/Independence and saying vague things and then msm, and others, go crazy and she is correct.

        That is twice now Palin has done this – she made some comment about 1773 and Tea Party, msm went nuts and she was correct.  

        Paul Revere:

        I observed a Wood at a Small distance, & made for that. When I got there, out Started Six officers, on Horse back,and orderd me to dismount;-one of them, who appeared to have the command, examined me, where I came from,& what my Name Was? I told him. it was Revere, he asked if it was Paul? I told him yes He asked me if I was an express? 

        I answered in the afirmative. He demanded what time I left Boston? I told him; and aded, that their troops had catched aground in passing the River, and that There would be five hundred Americans there in a short time, for I had alarmed the Country all the way up. 

        He imediately rode towards those who stoppd us, when all five of them came down upon a full gallop; one of them, whom I afterwards found to be Major Mitchel, of the 5th Regiment, Clapped his pistol to my head, called me by name, & told me he was going to ask me some questions, & if I did not give him true answers, he would blow my brains out. He then asked me similar questions to those above. He then orderd me to mount my Horse, after searching me for arms

        —-

        The Redcoats had set temporary roadblocks as a security measure and on their way to Concord they encountered British soldiers. Prescott managed to escape; Revere was captured and Dawes tried to run away but was arrested shortly thereafter. The British held Revere and interrogated him with a pistol on his chest. He was asked about the plans of the militia and where they kept their ammunition. When asked where the Patriots were hiding he told them the truth and replied that they had 500 militiamen in Concord protecting them and 1500 coming. As they rode towards Concord he was told that if he tried to escape he would be shot.

        http://www.paul-revere-heritage.com/midnight-ride.html

  3. Here is an evaluation of Obamas Presidency beyond……. Canadians are enjoying the
    effect on our dollar for now, but Canadas elevated trade with the U.S. in the not too distant future will be destroyed if Obama isn’t removed from office. America is at @$61.6 trillion in obligations/$534,000 per household.Morals and ethics in DC/govt, combined with greed/corruption/inefficiency, is the reason Obama hasn’t been indicted. Obama is destroying American businesses, ruining their ability to compete for jobs by undermining innovation, education and their ability to build. And global competition for business/jobs is paramount to save America, but impossible with Obama and company sabotaging the effort through his appointees.

    America must ASAP remove Obama, czars and appointees to restore interstate competition to make America good for Americans to do business again. And removing Obama will end the job killing moratorium on exploration/drilling for offshore oil, domestic energy production, and that result will increase national security. Congress allows this leftist, Jew hating, Christ hating, Capitalism hating man the Whitehouse. And elected officials have not stopped Obama from bypassing the legislative, reshaping policies, abusing executive power, and abusing the constitution. The people need to step up efforts because the GOP are not taking the people, the midterm message seriously. Both Democrat/Republican campaigns get politicians elected and in spite of who wins its always business as usual, election after election, America’s debt and undermining of the Constitution a bit worse off each election, until Obama arrived put this backward trend in Overdrive. Obama has to be removed to address the challenge they can no longer afford to endure….America being worse off each election cycle from meaningless elections where the progressives and RINOs are destroying Americas chance to rebuild wealth by the average citizen. The only productive thing the Obama Presidency will ever provide for America is his Presidency along side Hitler, Stalin and FDRwill be used to teach history.

    Replacing Obama is unfortunately only one step to subdue the NWO elites, so the people can start to force government to obey their Constitution/Rule of law. As of now the Constitution is abandoned in Washington. Americans must understand the Communist, radical, extremist ties to Obama now, before he flips the internet kill switch! There is no hope for change with so many traitors in power in D.C. making the rules to decide the consequences for disobeying their own oath.  Americans need to create the collective for a Grass-Roots Movement that hopefully will induce the creation of a 2012 platform supported by that majority, only then can they reclaim what  Govt has destroyed and or stolen.

    Jeff Toronto

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