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CIBC: Immigration will save the housing market


 

A senior economist at one of Canada’s major banks says a widely anticipated downturn in the housing market may not be as deep or as long-lasting as some fear.

Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets (TSX:CM), says demographic forces over the next decade will limit the damage.

Tal writes that there will be fewer Canadians under the age of 25 and between the ages of 45 and 54, but those groups account for a small portion of home buyers.

But Tal says the group aged between 25 and 34 — the age group that makes up the vast majority of first-time buyers — will continue to grow, and he says growth in the housing market could be even stronger due to immigration.

Overall, the CIBC economist says the next decade will see an annual population growth of 0.9 per cent, in line with growth seen in the past decade — a period of strong demand for residential real-estate and a sharp jump in housing prices.


 
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CIBC: Immigration will save the housing market

  1. How will this continue to happen when the Harper Government has made recent immigration policy changes?

    • The numbers have not gone down, at all.

      In fact, In 2010, Canada welcomed the highest number of legal immigrants in more than 50 years, at 280,636 permanent residents.

  2. Meanwhile, Canada keeps losing productive farm and grazing land to housing development (less than 5% of Canada is arable), construction accounts for HALF of non-recyclable waste going to landfills, and local water supplies, in areas like Southern Alberta, are already dangerously overtaxed. Not to mention the sociopolitical, cultural, actuarial (e.g., elderly family reunification cases), and public safety issues associated with mass immigration. It’s time to stop drinking the real estate-financial lobby’s Kool-Aid, with respect to mass immigration. The current, annual 250,000 permanent immigrant ‘target’ was the result of the banks, REITs, and developers lobbying the Mulroney government, in order to reinflate the housing bubble. This time, let’s say “F___ NO!” We need to slam the doors shut, and dismantle the completely unsustainable housing sector.

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