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Conservative lead shrinks overnight

New poll shows Liberals closing in on Tories


 

A new Nanos Research poll shows support for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives has increased from 38.4 percent to 39.1 per cent, but the Liberals are nonetheless closing in. The rolling three-day survey that ended Wednesday evening showed the Tory lead over the Grits had shrunk from 10 to 6 points. The Liberals, who went form 28.7 per cent to 32.7 per cent, appear to be successfully siphoning off support from Jack Layton’s NDP, who dropped nearly 4 points from 19.6 per cent to 15.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the Bloc hold steady at 8.7 per cent support, while Elizabeth May’s Green Party dropped from 3.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent. Still, a hefty 21.7 per cent of Canadians say they remain “undecided.”

The Globe and Mail


 
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Conservative lead shrinks overnight

  1. so here we go folks hahahaha ! just as I said it would – go ahead thumb me down all you want BUT as I have said repeatedly exactly what is happening here and will happen – the real fight here is Iggy vs Jack and make no mistake about it – in the meantime every week CPC up a notch and next week we will be at 40 – the magic number people – I love the attempt at spin that somehow this is bad news for us Tories – ROFL too funny try again folks – next stop world domination

  2. so here we go folks hahahaha ! just as I said it would – go ahead thumb me down all you want BUT as I have said repeatedly exactly what is happening here and will happen – the real fight here is Iggy vs Jack and make no mistake about it – in the meantime every week CPC up a notch and next week we will be at 40 – the magic number people – I love the attempt at spin that somehow this is bad news for us Tories – ROFL too funny try again folks – next stop world domination

    • 40% is only important when the the third place party does well and the gap between first and second is widening, not shrinking Wayne. Not neccessarly bad news for the cons, not good news either. In any case we need to watch for the trends…that's where the gold is. Too early yet.

    • 40 is not a magic number. The gap between parties is a far better determinant of outcomes in terms of seats than absolute levels of support. If Harper were at 40%, but Ignatieff was at say, 36%, Harper would win fewer seats than he did in 2008.

  3. How do you DROP from 3.7 to 4.1? does gravity work differently for MacLeans or is that some sort of 'new math' ?

  4. How do you DROP from 3.7 to 4.1? does gravity work differently for MacLeans or is that some sort of 'new math' ?

    • It's the new green economics.

      • would certainly like to have seen the polling question and how it was couched. I just can't get my mind wrapped around what sort of question could have produced such bizarre overall results

  5. It's the new green economics.

  6. The problem is that the Liberals could successfully siphon off virtually all of the NDP votes…and seats…and still come up way short of forming even a minority government.

    I suppose it might be a good strategy if you're focused solely on weakening the NDP…but in terms of allowing Liberals to form the government…you're going to "top out" way before that can happen.

  7. The problem is that the Liberals could successfully siphon off virtually all of the NDP votes…and seats…and still come up way short of forming even a minority government.

    I suppose it might be a good strategy if you're focused solely on weakening the NDP…but in terms of allowing Liberals to form the government…you're going to "top out" way before that can happen.

    • You may want to rethink that prediction. Look at how many ridings that the Conservatives won because the vote was split between the Libs and the Dippers.

      The ONLY way that the Liberals will form the next government is if the NDP votes collapses, and, although it is early in the campaign, this is the trend line that is starting to form.

      Faced with the alternative of a Harper majority government, most on the left of the spectrum will likely plug their nose and give a nod to the Liberals.

      Harper's shot @ a majority was in 2008 – and he blew it. That window has now closed.

      • Not necessarily true.

        Splitting the vote let's the Conservatives come up the middle, and that is a problem. But if the riding has a strong NDP candidate, it is the Liberal vote that needs to collapse–in that riding.

        And I'm a Liberal.

    • I don't think it's their only strategy. There are certainly some loose CPC votes out there as well, and Liberals that stayed home last time.

  8. You may want to rethink that prediction. Look at how many ridings that the Conservatives won because the vote was split between the Libs and the Dippers.

    The ONLY way that the Liberals will form the next government is if the NDP votes collapses, and, although it is early in the campaign, this is the trend line that is starting to form.

    Faced with the alternative of a Harper majority government, most on the left of the spectrum will likely plug their nose and give a nod to the Liberals.

    Harper's shot @ a majority was in 2008 – and he blew it. That window has now closed.

  9. Nanos had the CPC and Libs very close, and at times nearly neck and neck last time out, and suddenly adjusted a large spread at the very end.

    Always be wary of single polls.

    Particularly if they're outliers,

    And even moreso if it's Nanos and he grabbing headlines weeks out before the vote.

    Watch for the shift in spread at the end.

    You saw it called here first.

  10. Nanos had the CPC and Libs very close, and at times nearly neck and neck last time out, and suddenly adjusted a large spread at the very end.

    Always be wary of single polls.

    Particularly if they're outliers,

    And even moreso if it's Nanos and he grabbing headlines weeks out before the vote.

    Watch for the shift in spread at the end.

    You saw it called here first.

    • On the other hand, I think it's a precursor.

      People are used to seeing CPC attack ads; by now, they probably tune them out. The attacks on Harper, though, are novel, so they get people listening… and suddenly, paying attention to what's been happening in Ottawa.

      Add to that the muddying of the "coalition" waters; Harper backing off from his 1:1 debate challenge; and Harper appearing to be in hiding from the public & press – and suddenly people are seeing another side. And they aren't liking it.

      And then there's Iggy, rising to every challenge, answering questions, looking confident.

      Hold on tight, chet: the Liberal wave is about to wash over the bow of the SS Harper.

  11. I don't think it's their only strategy. There are certainly some loose CPC votes out there as well, and Liberals that stayed home last time.

  12. would certainly like to have seen the polling question and how it was couched. I just can't get my mind wrapped around what sort of question could have produced such bizarre overall results

  13. "next stop world domination" … if that isn't a good reason to revive Danny Williams' ABC nation-wide, I don't know what is …

  14. I know it is not my place to comment on the Canadian election but please excuse me for doing so. Canadians must remember that the Republican party will probably take the Presidency in 2012 and a majority Conservative government in Canada is our preference. North America needs to work together to share our resources and ensure our prosperity. Liberal bleeding hearts are against big business and banks and let's face it, the 'people', for the most part, do not know what's good for them. We in the United States are cheering for Mr. Harper to win a majority so we can get down to business with your abundant natural resources specifically your oil and fresh water reserves. Something we greatly need in the United States.

  15. I know it is not my place to comment on the Canadian election but please excuse me for doing so. Canadians must remember that the Republican party will probably take the Presidency in 2012 and a majority Conservative government in Canada is our preference. North America needs to work together to share our resources and ensure our prosperity. Liberal bleeding hearts are against big business and banks and let's face it, the 'people', for the most part, do not know what's good for them. We in the United States are cheering for Mr. Harper to win a majority so we can get down to business with your abundant natural resources specifically your oil and fresh water reserves. Something we greatly need in the United States.

    • You can change your handle but not your nature, no matter how often you shift shape. You'll still be a troll.

    • Dear America, I know its not my place to comment, but that ain't going to stop me from doing so. Please don't elect a bunch of yahoos in 2012.

      We'd kind of like to see you return to a path towards fiscal sustainability, albeit preferably after you have recovered from the present recession. However, half of you don't seem to realize that getting there will require spending cuts, while the other half thinks it can do so while reducing revenues. Maybe blue and red America can have a chat and get on the same page?

      Also, we'd appreciate it if you made sure your financial regulations are in order. I mean, sure it was really hard to predict that securitized mortgage loans to people that couldn't afford them, insured by overleveraged third parties, would ever cause problems, but it kind of did some damage last time.

      Also, you might want to rethink your approach to wars… I mean you guys have been beaten by Canada, North Vietnam, are stuck in a quagmire in Afghanistan, and it took you nearly a decade to finish up in Iraq. Frankly, we're embarrassed for you over losing in 1812. Maybe you could develop a few ground rules like, only one war at a time, or only wars over vital national interests.

      Oh and, I know China is now the number 1 C02 emitter, but many of us vacation in Florida and would rather not have it sink into the ocean (especially if the ocean is covered with a massive oil slick). Um and you could maybe be nicer to gay people. Other than that, I think we're cool.

    • Harper's values are farther left than Obama's. Although he may have been resistant in the past Harper now openly accepts gay-marriage and abortion.

      • I think the word you were looking for is "tolerates"

    • Obvious Troll is Obvious

  16. It's all lies all the time now. Nobody tells the truth anymore just spin. Elections are essentially engineered by the press. Unfortunately in this country its all liberal all the time.

  17. It's all lies all the time now. Nobody tells the truth anymore just spin. Elections are essentially engineered by the press. Unfortunately in this country its all liberal all the time.

    • Yes, you are right, those damn liberals who work at the National Post and QMI. What about the political talk shows in Canada – really wouldn't define either Lowell Green or Charles Alder as raging Liberals.

      And what about BellGlobeMedia? I am 100% certain that Harper would not have appointed both Duffy and Wallin to the Senators if there was any "red" in their bones. Nor, do I think that that the G & M's editorial board would have endorsed the Conservatives in the last two federal elections if they were a bunch of Libs.

      Even if you look at the CBC / SRC, you would note that it was one of their reporters who broke the story of the HRSDC boondoggle, and the same CBC that broadcasted ALL of the testimony from the Gomery Commission

      But, please, provide some substantive evidence of a liberal bias in the media.

  18. Yes, you are right, those damn liberals who work at the National Post and QMI. What about the political talk shows in Canada – really wouldn't define either Lowell Green or Charles Alder as raging Liberals.

    And what about BellGlobeMedia? I am 100% certain that Harper would not have appointed both Duffy and Wallin to the Senators if there was any "red" in their bones. Nor, do I think that that the G & M's editorial board would have endorsed the Conservatives in the last two federal elections if they were a bunch of Libs.

    Even if you look at the CBC / SRC, you would note that it was one of their reporters who broke the story of the HRSDC boondoggle, and the same CBC that broadcasted ALL of the testimony from the Gomery Commission

    But, please, provide some substantive evidence of a liberal bias in the media.

  19. 40% is only important when the the third place party does well and the gap between first and second is widening, not shrinking Wayne. Not neccessarly bad news for the cons, not good news either. In any case we need to watch for the trends…that's where the gold is. Too early yet.

  20. The press is owned by conservative billionaires! everyone knows that!

  21. You can change your handle but not your nature, no matter how often you shift shape. You'll still be a troll.

  22. The press is owned by conservative billionaires! everyone knows that!

  23. This Nanos poll is rather suspect for several reasons. Given that it is a tracking poll over 3 nights, it's a bit suspicious to see the Liberals move 4 points up and NDP move 4 down after a single night, that must be averaged by the previous 2 nights. Mathematically, it doesn't make much sense. Moreover, the massive shifts are happening in regions where the nightly tracking has an MOE of 6-10%. For example, the Libs gained 6 points in Atlantic Can (n=99 respondents), 10 points in the prairies (n=195 respondents), 4 points in BC (n=141). Those numbers look too good to be true. See for yourself <a href="http:// (http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110330-BallotE.pdf)” target=”_blank”> <a href="http://(http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110330-BallotE.pdf)” target=”_blank”>(http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110330-BallotE.pdf).

    Moreover, the Liberals should also view this with some caution, since it shows the Cons have a growing, now 15 points, lead over the Libs in Ontario, and 10 points in BC.

  24. This Nanos poll is rather suspect for several reasons. Given that it is a tracking poll over 3 nights, it's a bit suspicious to see the Liberals move 4 points up and NDP move 4 down after a single night, that must be averaged by the previous 2 nights. Mathematically, it doesn't make much sense. Moreover, the massive shifts are happening in regions where the nightly tracking has an MOE of 6-10%. For example, the Libs gained 6 points in Atlantic Can (n=99 respondents), 10 points in the prairies (n=195 respondents), 4 points in BC (n=141). Those numbers look too good to be true. See for yourself (http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110330-BallotE.pdf).

    Moreover, the Liberals should also view this with some caution, since it shows the Cons have a growing, now 15 points, lead over the Libs in Ontario, and 10 points in BC.

    • You present sound arguments. I too believe that these 'massive gains/losses' are within the margin of error. I'll reserve my judgement until some long term trends can be presented.

  25. Why don't you repost the spam you were pushing yesterday, instead of feeling sorry for yourself? Buck up, it's early days. There's still lots of time and opportunity for Ignatieff to do a face plant. Gotta say he's surprising so far though.

  26. Dear America, I know its not my place to comment, but that ain't going to stop me from doing so. Please don't elect a bunch of yahoos in 2012.

    We'd kind of like to see you return to a path towards fiscal sustainability, albeit preferably after you have recovered from the present recession. However, half of you don't seem to realize that getting there will require spending cuts, while the other half thinks it can do so while reducing revenues. Maybe blue and red America can have a chat and get on the same page?

    Also, we'd appreciate it if you made sure your financial regulations are in order. I mean, sure it was really hard to predict that securitized mortgage loans to people that couldn't afford them, insured by overleveraged third parties, would ever cause problems, but it kind of did some damage last time.

    Also, you might want to rethink your approach to wars… I mean you guys have been beaten by Canada, North Vietnam, are stuck in a quagmire in Afghanistan, and it took you nearly a decade to finish up in Iraq. Frankly, we're embarrassed for you over losing in 1812. Maybe you could develop a few ground rules like, only one war at a time, or only wars over vital national interests.

    Oh and, I know China is now the number 1 C02 emitter, but many of us vacation in Florida and would rather not have it sink into the ocean (especially if the ocean is covered with a massive oil slick). Um and you could maybe be nicer to gay people. Other than that, I think we're cool.

  27. This is always ridiculous when the media writes about a single surprising poll. We won't know if the poll shows something real, or is simply an outlier poll (the 1 in 20 poll that has a large margin of error), until we see at least one more poll. Reporting this as a story is premature.

  28. 40 is not a magic number. The gap between parties is a far better determinant of outcomes in terms of seats than absolute levels of support. If Harper were at 40%, but Ignatieff was at say, 36%, Harper would win fewer seats than he did in 2008.

  29. This is always ridiculous when the media writes about a single surprising poll. We won't know if the poll shows something real, or is simply an outlier poll (the 1 in 20 poll that has a large margin of error), until we see at least one more poll. Reporting this as a story is premature.

  30. Harper's values are farther left than Obama's. Although he may have been resistant in the past Harper now openly accepts gay-marriage and abortion.

  31. You present sound arguments. I too believe that these 'massive gains/losses' are within the margin of error. I'll reserve my judgement until some long term trends can be presented.

  32. Harper is a girlie man for his chickening out of a debate with Iggy. Watch the polls fly. Canadians do not like cowards. Yes Harper we are calling you out.

  33. Harper is a girlie man for his chickening out of a debate with Iggy. Watch the polls fly. Canadians do not like cowards. Yes Harper we are calling you out.

    • are you sure you're crediting Canadians with enough intelligence? I'd prefer to believe that Harper is losing support for his autocratic leadership and reckless spending rather than an isolated incident when he displayed himself as a "girly man".

  34. Not necessarily true.

    Splitting the vote let's the Conservatives come up the middle, and that is a problem. But if the riding has a strong NDP candidate, it is the Liberal vote that needs to collapse–in that riding.

    And I'm a Liberal.

  35. Well, seeing as the Liberals, Separatists, NDP and the media are running as a coalition, it should be no surprise that the NDP vote is syphoning off to the media championed Liberals. The coalition party's are not campaigning against each other and Jack Layton is selling out NDP support for what he hopes is a Conservative minority Government that will be taken down at the first opportunity, led by the corrupt Liberals who will then turn around and reward Layton with a cabinet seat in the Liberal/Separatist coalition. Layton can justify selling out the NDP supporters for a chance at an unelected cabinet post. The bad news for the Liberal party activist media is the Conservative numbers are still strong and rising.

  36. Well, seeing as the Liberals, Separatists, NDP and the media are running as a coalition, it should be no surprise that the NDP vote is syphoning off to the media championed Liberals. The coalition party's are not campaigning against each other and Jack Layton is selling out NDP support for what he hopes is a Conservative minority Government that will be taken down at the first opportunity, led by the corrupt Liberals who will then turn around and reward Layton with a cabinet seat in the Liberal/Separatist coalition. Layton can justify selling out the NDP supporters for a chance at an unelected cabinet post. The bad news for the Liberal party activist media is the Conservative numbers are still strong and rising.

  37. On the other hand, I think it's a precursor.

    People are used to seeing CPC attack ads; by now, they probably tune them out. The attacks on Harper, though, are novel, so they get people listening… and suddenly, paying attention to what's been happening in Ottawa.

    Add to that the muddying of the "coalition" waters; Harper backing off from his 1:1 debate challenge; and Harper appearing to be in hiding from the public & press – and suddenly people are seeing another side. And they aren't liking it.

    And then there's Iggy, rising to every challenge, answering questions, looking confident.

    Hold on tight, chet: the Liberal wave is about to wash over the bow of the SS Harper.

  38. I think the word you were looking for is "tolerates"

  39. are you sure you're crediting Canadians with enough intelligence? I'd prefer to believe that Harper is losing support for his autocratic leadership and reckless spending rather than an isolated incident when he displayed himself as a "girly man".

  40. Time for the CPC to bolster the NDP.

  41. Time for the CPC to bolster the NDP.

  42. Obvious Troll is Obvious

  43. Reminds me of polling results published before Rob Ford was elected as Mayor. I wonder…

  44. Reminds me of polling results published before Rob Ford was elected as Mayor. I wonder…

  45. This is one of the reasons why media who does not have the right pulse of the people are declining in sales and viewership. If they continue with their bias, sales will decline even further. Might be time for them to change profession, like blogging?

  46. This is one of the reasons why media who does not have the right pulse of the people are declining in sales and viewership. If they continue with their bias, sales will decline even further. Might be time for them to change profession, like blogging?

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