Over at the always interesting Intrade predictions market (where people can buy contracts to bet on the outcomes of things like political races), Stephen Harper and the Conservatives’ stock has been sinking over the past week. The site once put Harper’s chances of winning at almost 98 per cent. Yesterday, it was down to 85 percent. Still, a very healthy lead over the Liberals, who have a 15 per cent chance of winning, according to the site.
More interesting, perhaps, is the value of contracts being bet on the likelihood of a minority government. They’re soaring. A week ago, the odds were under 60 per cent. Today, they’re at 80 per cent.