International panel's leaked report predicts more illness, war, disease with global warming -

International panel’s leaked report predicts more illness, war, disease with global warming


WASHINGTON – Starvation, poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease already lead to human tragedies. They’re likely to worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an international scientific report forecasts.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will issue a report next March on how global warming is already affecting the way people live and what will happen in the future, including a worldwide drop in income. A leaked copy of a draft of the summary of the report appeared online Friday on a climate skeptic’s website. Governments will spend the next few months making comments about the draft.

“We’ve seen a lot of impacts and they’ve had consequences,” Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who heads the report, told The Associated Press on Saturday. “And we will see more in the future.”

Cities, where most of the world now lives, have the highest vulnerability, as do the globe’s poorest people.

“Throughout the 21st century, climate change impacts will slow down economic growth and poverty reduction, further erode food security and trigger new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger,” the report says. “Climate change will exacerbate poverty in low- and lower-middle income countries and create new poverty pockets in upper-middle to high-income countries with increasing inequality.”

For people living in poverty, the report says, “climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden.”

The report says scientists have high confidence especially in what it calls certain “key risks”:

—People dying from warming- and sea rise-related flooding, especially in big cities.

—Famine because of temperature and rain changes, especially for poorer nations.

—Farmers going broke because of lack of water.

—Infrastructure failures because of extreme weather.

—Dangerous and deadly heat waves worsening.

—Certain land and marine ecosystems failing.

“Human interface with the climate system is occurring and climate change poses risks for human and natural systems,” the 29-page summary says.

None of the harms talked about in the report is solely due to global warming nor is climate change even the No. 1 cause, the scientists say. But a warmer world, with bursts of heavy rain and prolonged drought, will worsen some of these existing effects, they say.

For example, in disease, the report says until about 2050 “climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist” and then it will lead to worse health compared to a future with no futher warming.

If emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas continue at current trajectories, “the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year will compromise normal human activities including growing food or working outdoors,” the report says.

Scientists say the global economy may continue to grow, but once the global temperature hits about 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than now, it could lead to worldwide economic losses between 0.2 and 2.0 per cent of income.

One of the more controversial sections of the report involves climate change and war.

“Climate change indirectly increases risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks,” the report says.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn’t part of the international study team, told the AP that the report’s summary confirms what researchers have known for a long time: “Climate change threatens our health, land, food and water security.”

The summary went through each continent detailing risks and possible ways that countries can adapt to them.

For North America, the highest risks over the long term are from wildfires, heat waves and flooding. Water — too much and too little — and heat are the biggest risks for Europe, South America and Asia, with South America and Asia having to deal with drought-related food shortages. Africa gets those risks and more: starvation, pests and disease. Australia and New Zealand get the unique risk of losing their coral reef ecosystems, and small island nations have to be worried about being inundated by rising seas.

Field said experts paint a dramatic contrast of possible futures, but because countries can lessen some of the harms through reduced fossil fuel emissions and systems to cope with other changes, he said he doesn’t find working on the report depressing.

“The reason I’m not depressed is because I see the difference between a world in which we don’t do anything and a world in which we try hard to get our arms around the problem,” he said.


International panel’s leaked report predicts more illness, war, disease with global warming

  1. Yes, climate affects everything. Animals have been on the move for years. So have diseases.

  2. I call b.s. on the whole thing.

  3. Of course that’s what they’re saying. Nothing they’ve predicted in the past has happened, but why would they let that stop them from even bolder failed predictions?

    When will the propaganda end?

  4. “… countries can lessen some of the harms through reduced fossil fuel emissions…”

    Forced carbon strangulation of economies is the greatest risk we face, and the resultant fiscal stress would make it even more difficult to deal with whatever changes might occur, be they increasing temperatures (which have not been happening) or the more likely decreasing temperatures, which would follow from the decline in solar activity levels.

    • I would love to see some of those guys, actually any of those guys, survive the Canadian winter with no fossil fuels. I’ll bet none of them have ever split a cord of wood in their lives. They would never get their hands so dirty, too busy sipping their lattes.

  5. So, if or models are right, which they are not, then models based on the not right models are really scary. And if my granny had wheels she’d be bus.

    • Lol!

    • Gilles D? Is that you?

  6. A few months ago the IPCC somehow ‘leaked’ some sections of their upcoming AR5 report. When the actual report was released in September, its showed that the earlier leaked sections were not the same as those in the report. In other words, they were fake leaks, intentional leaks. The leaks were an attempt to test the water and to generate some media buzz for the upcoming report, but they learned that the news media was simply not interested anymore.

    This new leak is even more ignored by the MSM than before. Wow.

    The IPCC bureaucrats must be scrambling to save their jobs. Looks like the good old days of ‘martinis by the pool’ are over. Lol!

  7. Good thing it stopped 15 yrs ago then.

  8. Climate change is a total scam – this is another self-serving, politically motivated scaremonger. These guys have already been called out for fabricating data and they’re at it again. Shame on them for peddling these unsettling lies.

  9. OK, you mercenary Koch roaches…get busy! Army of flying monkey deniers…attaaack!!