3

Is Obama the winner so far of the GOP nomination race?

Even the Republicans don’t like their candidates


 

Once again, a new anybody-but-Mitt-Romney candidate has surged in the Republican polls. This time, it is former Speaker Newt Gingrich. After surviving onslaughts from Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, you would think Mitt Romney might start seeing some daylight and begin to build the support he’ll need to capture the nomination. He is the candidate with the best match-up numbers against Obama, so you would expect the Republican base to begin to see the advantages of Romney as the nominee. Instead, it is becoming evident that while Romney’s support may be steady, his candidacy is not catching fire. He remains the unloved frontrunner.

As with the others before him, Gingrich will now enter the phase of close scrutiny. Can he survive and emerge as the permanent anybody-but-Romney candidate? Or will he fail, as the others did before him, to maintain his momentum? 

The rise of Gingrich is surprising because his candidacy was written off as early as last spring. He is a polarizing figure, prone to controversial and often contradictory statements. He has been known to apply standards of conduct to others that he doesn’t follow himself. Just ask Bill Clinton. More recently, reports surfaced that Gingrich received over $1 million from Freddie Mac, a favorite target of his on the campaign trail. The Obama people would love to run against him, but it seems unlikely his bid for the nomination will survive a close inspection.

In addition to its inability to field a compelling roster of candidates, the GOP brain trust has chosen to conduct an overabundance of debates that have done little to define positions or make the candidates appear serious. In 2008, the Democrats had a group of attractive candidates that captured the attention of their base and the rest of the electorate on basis of their personas and their visions. This is not happening with today’s GOP field.

Perry has proven to be a inept debater, generally looks out of his depth, and has failed to define himself on a position that could make him a serious candidate come primary season. It may be too late for him already. Both Bachmann and Cain had promising early starts, but have been inconsequential of late because they do not appear ready for primetime on the issues. No one really believes either can win anyway. As for Gingrich, there is no evidence he can go beyond the recent surge despite his steady debate performances.

Republican strategists are predicting the race will drag on because candidates can accumulate delegates throughout the primary season rather than concede early. This will not be helpful. With an underwhelming field and the debates failing to ignite interest in any policy initiative (9-9-9 does not do it!),  it is beginning to appear that the main beneficiary of the Republican race may very well be Barack Obama.

Obama is vulnerable in 2012 and there is little expectation that the economy will pick up enough to give him enough of a bounce to ensure a second term. The president, however, still has the bully pulpit and has been looking more presidential since last summer’s debt ceiling debacle. Moreover, the Republican campaigns haven’t done much to attract voters, with the actual candidates score lower in the polls than the “generic Republican” when matched against Obama.

The approval rating for Congress, meanwhile, is approaching single-digit territory, making it a good target for Obama in 2012. Americans will not change for change’s sake when it come to choosing a president, and it is likely no one factor will sway the voter if the GOP nominee fails to present a viable alternative or generate some enthusiasm. Romney should ultimately win his party’s nomination, but unlike Obama in 2008 who defeated the formidable Hillary Clinton in the primaries, he is facing a less than stellar challenge from within his own party. This prospect usually benefits the incumbent in re-election.


 

Is Obama the winner so far of the GOP nomination race?

  1. Obama is not the “winner of the GOP primary”. Romney is the prohibitive favourite (Intrade pegs his chance of winning at about 70%). He has been able to win, moreover, without committing himself to the crazy positions of the tea party. Moreover, few Romney donors have been tapped during the primary race, leaving them free to throw money his way after he wins the nomination. While Obama still leads Romney in national polling, you have to remember that most of the US is not in election mode. When you look at Romney vs. Obama polls conducted in early states (where the campaign is under way), Romney fares quite well. 

    According to the latest polls (gleaned from RCP) Romney…
    leads Obama by 8-11 points in New Hampshire (a state Obama won by 9.5 points)
    leads Obama by 3-4 in Florida (a state Obama won by 3 points)
    leads Obama by 5 in Michigan (a state Obama won by 16 points)
    ties Obama in Nevada (a state Obama won by 12.5 points)trails Obama by 1.3 in Iowa (a state Obama won by 9.5 points)None of Romney’s rivals in the nomination race can muster the key combination of:
    1. strong fundraising/organizational prowess
    2. credibility as a commander in chief
    3. acceptability to the GOP base

    Gingrich has 2 and 3, but lacks much of an organization. As of the last report, Gingrich had barely raised 2 million dollars, and was a million in debt. Romney raised over 32 million, with 14.5 million on hand. 

    Rick Perry has 1, but his “oops” moment, and his rare departures from the GOP line on illegal immigration have cost him the nomination.

    Herman Cain has 3 (though woman numbers 1-5 may undermine that), but lacks much of an organization (only raised 5 million). His fumbling statements on foreign policy mean he lacks 2 as well.

    Ron Paul has 1, but his foreign policy views are so far from the GOP base, that he has been stuck with a ceiling of 10% of the vote. 

    If you could combine Rick Perry’s organization with a candidate like Newt Gingrich (but with less baggage), you might have a challenger to Romney. But we don’t. 

  2. Gingrich has been described as: “What stupid people think a smart person sounds like.”

    The man is a hypocritical lizard.

    • Regardless of Krugman’s opinion, I don’t think Gingrich is stupid, nor do I think his supporters are stupid. But you’re not far off the mark calling him a hypocritical lizard. That pretty much describes all politicians, lobbyists and activists. Call me stupid, just don’t call me late for dinner.

Sign in to comment.