The final polling numbers are in and statistician Nate Silver predicts that there is a pretty substantial chance of President Barack Obama winning a second term.
Shortly after appearing on the Colbert Report Monday night, Silver tweeted: “A few more polls to add. But Obama at 91% to win Electoral College based on today’s data so far.”
In his final post at New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight Monday morning, Silver gives Obama a 91.6 per cent chance of winning. Silver writes: “Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.”
But, Silver said on Twitter Monday morning, it will still be close. “IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we’re predicting a landslide. We expect a close election.”
Predicting such a whopping victory for the president has lead to much controversy, and even personal attacks, as pundits question how useful Silver’s polling methods are and what will happen to Silver’s reputation, should his predictions be wrong.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012