New poll has NDP tied with Liberals for second place - Macleans.ca
 

New poll has NDP tied with Liberals for second place

But survey shows surge of support for New Democrats could drop off by election day


 

Four weeks into the election campaign, the NDP are tied with the Liberals for second place in a new Angus Reid survey. The poll shows both the NDP and the Liberals sitting even at 25 per cent support nationally, while the Conservatives continue to enjoy a comfortable 11-point lead at 36 per cent. The Bloc Québécois are at 9 per cent support, and the Greens trail with 5 per cent. There is some doubt as to whether the NDP can maintain that support come election day, as 41 per cent of respondents who supported the NDP also said they may change their minds and vote strategically in a bid to prevent a Tory majority. “Jack Layton did quite well in that debate and he’s attracting the attention of a lot of people, but he hasn’t really locked down their votes yet,” says Angus Reid Public Opinion vice-president Jaideep Mukerji.

Toronto Star


 
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New poll has NDP tied with Liberals for second place

  1. The NDP have played their cards brilliantly this time as compared to the previous race and jack's timing for attacking Iggy was absolutley text book perfect. Out here in BC the race is between the NDP and the CPC with the Liberals running the rick of being wiped off the face of the poltical map completely – the election may jst come down to BC being the difference between a CPC majority or a minority and who knows maybe jack become the leader of the official opposition. Both Harper and jack are slicing and dicing Iggy and the lib's are scared you can almost smell the fear in all of the latest rants by Iggy who is quite obvious desparate in gasping the last of his political breath – I almost feel sorry for the Liberals it is not going to be pretty come the day after the polls close.

  2. The NDP have played their cards brilliantly this time as compared to the previous race and jack's timing for attacking Iggy was absolutley text book perfect. Out here in BC the race is between the NDP and the CPC with the Liberals running the rick of being wiped off the face of the poltical map completely – the election may jst come down to BC being the difference between a CPC majority or a minority and who knows maybe jack become the leader of the official opposition. Both Harper and jack are slicing and dicing Iggy and the lib's are scared you can almost smell the fear in all of the latest rants by Iggy who is quite obvious desparate in gasping the last of his political breath – I almost feel sorry for the Liberals it is not going to be pretty come the day after the polls close.

    • Nic say no.

  3. This differs significantly from the Nanos poll cited by CTV today: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNe

    I heard on the drive in that there is a third poll out this morning with yet different results, but haven't had a chance to track it down yet.

    Guess we'll have to wait a bit to see who is closest to the mark…

  4. This differs significantly from the Nanos poll cited by CTV today: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNe

    I heard on the drive in that there is a third poll out this morning with yet different results, but haven't had a chance to track it down yet.

    Guess we'll have to wait a bit to see who is closest to the mark…

    • The Nanos polls ask the following question:

      "For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?" (Committed voters only – First Preference)

      This phrasing of the question benefits Liberals who are typically 2nd choice for many Conservative and NDP supporters. Not many Conservatives consider NDP as second choice or vice versa. What is important is who people intend to vote for; not the 2 parties they would vote for if they were told to rank their top two choices.

    • Leger was in-between Nanos (most accurate in 2004 and 2006) and Angus-Reid (most accurate in 2008), with a prediction of 22% for the NDP.

  5. The Nanos polls ask the following question:

    "For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?" (Committed voters only – First Preference)

    This phrasing of the question benefits Liberals who are typically 2nd choice for many Conservative and NDP supporters. Not many Conservatives consider NDP as second choice or vice versa. What is important is who people intend to vote for; not the 2 parties they would vote for if they were told to rank their top two choices.

  6. It may be that Ignatieff's (or maybe Donolo's) plan of morphing the Lib's into the NDP during the campaign is now back firing on them.

    If you're attracted to the NDP-esque Liberals…why not just vote for the real deal NDP?

    The interesting part is whether the NDP can hold these votes which traditionally scurry back to the Liberals come election day. Mind you…with Ignatieff being (by far) the least liked federal party leader…maybe this time the swing to the NDP might just stick?

  7. It may be that Ignatieff's (or maybe Donolo's) plan of morphing the Lib's into the NDP during the campaign is now back firing on them.

    If you're attracted to the NDP-esque Liberals…why not just vote for the real deal NDP?

    The interesting part is whether the NDP can hold these votes which traditionally scurry back to the Liberals come election day. Mind you…with Ignatieff being (by far) the least liked federal party leader…maybe this time the swing to the NDP might just stick?

    • huh?

    • That'd be an interesting look for Canada to have the NDP with the second most # of seats in the house. Depending on how things fall, it could be that the NDP is able to work their way into a minority government. It'll be an interesting next couple of weeks!

      With Love and Gratitude,

      Jeremiah

      • Well…if they did happen to get the second most # of seats in a minority Conservative situation…it opens up an even more interesting scenario.

        Prime Minister Jack Layton.

  8. Why wouldn't support for Jack go up?

    Why would Ignatieff, the newcomer, expect to take over the NDP platform and then be able to push Layton under the bus?

    Layton has worked most of his lifetime defending the leftist cause, and good for him. The intelligent voter understands who deserves to defend the leftist platform and it ain't the Liberals.

    The Liberals go from being right to being left. The Liberals will do anything to secure power. Layton isn't that shallow and the voters know it.

  9. Why wouldn't support for Jack go up?

    Why would Ignatieff, the newcomer, expect to take over the NDP platform and then be able to push Layton under the bus?

    Layton has worked most of his lifetime defending the leftist cause, and good for him. The intelligent voter understands who deserves to defend the leftist platform and it ain't the Liberals.

    The Liberals go from being right to being left. The Liberals will do anything to secure power. Layton isn't that shallow and the voters know it.

    • Phoniness is the least of Layton's faults, but the best defamation-option for the evidence-challenged.

      When someone with Layton's persuasions spend years fielding academic questions from young people, and meetings with labour folk, the phoniness is just burned out of you.

      When the NDP establishes, or shifts, a platform, even where Layton might disagree, he appropriates the consensus as his own and runs with it. Like any politician, he's not perfect at it.

      But compared to Ignatieff's morph-artist, flavour-of-the-week, it's as sincere as you can get.

      On the other hand, Harper is completely sincere. He will run this place like a Beijing politburo machine. Or a mega-mall. Everyone knows that, and his supporters want that. That's why they want him to win. Don't look for 'hidden agendas'. Vote for Harper and get complete sincerity.
      .

  10. Leger was in-between Nanos (most accurate in 2004 and 2006) and Angus-Reid (most accurate in 2008), with a prediction of 22% for the NDP.

  11. Nic say no.

  12. So, will those in the Liberal party who have called for strategic voting for years put their vote where the mouth is and vote NDP this election?

  13. So, will those in the Liberal party who have called for strategic voting for years put their vote where the mouth is and vote NDP this election?

    • Any Liberal with respect for democracy and Liberty will vote NDP, IMHO.

  14. RISE UP!! RISE UP CANADA!! With Mr. Dithers looking on in the background we will all fondly remember this moment as the point in the election campaign where Iggy finally "jumped the shark"! At least it will be over soon and we can all move forward.

  15. RISE UP!! RISE UP CANADA!! With Mr. Dithers looking on in the background we will all fondly remember this moment as the point in the election campaign where Iggy finally "jumped the shark"! At least it will be over soon and we can all move forward.

    • Stay tuned…Chretien is about to make his photo-op with Iggy.

  16. "But survey shows surge of support for New Democrats could drop off by election day" say very nervous Liberals who hope to God this is a blip and not a trend because that would put them in 3rd place! Conservative majority and a NDP opposition, a good formula for Canada I would say. Away with the Liberals, their day is done!

  17. "But survey shows surge of support for New Democrats could drop off by election day" say very nervous Liberals who hope to God this is a blip and not a trend because that would put them in 3rd place! Conservative majority and a NDP opposition, a good formula for Canada I would say. Away with the Liberals, their day is done!

    • now THAT would be a better representation of how Canadians actually think and feel.

    • It is nauseating watching their appointed "leader" speak about democracy, nothing democratic in any PP with Party loyalty, that is value I associate with Mr. Adolf and Uncle Joe.

  18. How does that song go… "We want power…. we want freedom…" but power is first though, for the Liberals!

  19. How does that song go… "We want power…. we want freedom…" but power is first though, for the Liberals!

  20. Polls are controlled by conservative businesses. The reason the NDP are 'suddenly' catching the liberals is because the right wing controlled polsters see a liberal surge so they have to tell Canadians that the NDP are tied with the liberals. They want to give false hope to the NDP, that were thinking of supporting the liberals, to split the vote. The right wing polsters will play this new poll over and over to split the vote. Dont believe them. Vote Liberal and defeat Harper. RISE UP CANADA and rid our country of this dangerous FOX NEWS lovin, Republican.

  21. just curious – why does every single story that is bad news for the Liberals always have some caveat?

  22. Polls are controlled by conservative businesses. The reason the NDP are 'suddenly' catching the liberals is because the right wing controlled polsters see a liberal surge so they have to tell Canadians that the NDP are tied with the liberals. They want to give false hope to the NDP, that were thinking of supporting the liberals, to split the vote. The right wing polsters will play this new poll over and over to split the vote. Dont believe them. Vote Liberal and defeat Harper. RISE UP CANADA and rid our country of this dangerous FOX NEWS lovin, Republican.

    • Do you really belwive what you just wrote? Really?

  23. just curious – why does every single story that is bad news for the Liberals always have some caveat?

    • i think that is self-evident, no? the Liberals can't fight for themselves and the press wants a horserace.

      it's pathetic, and it artificially inflates the Liberals real support, but it's just the way she goes.

  24. now THAT would be a better representation of how Canadians actually think and feel.

  25. RISE Up NDP stand up and vote for your party !!! some of you may have drank of the liberal koolaid and think that ABC is an option BUT think again why should tyou help the liberal party get any power .. only to watch them turn around and stab you in the back .. and rest assured they would at the very first opportunity in whatever coalition or arrangment you had set up !!! BETTER idea – Rise Up for your own party and votye for what you believe in – who knows maybe it would be you as the official oppostion and the CPC in the House battling it out and the Liberals in the background wasting space :)

  26. RISE Up NDP stand up and vote for your party !!! some of you may have drank of the liberal koolaid and think that ABC is an option BUT think again why should tyou help the liberal party get any power .. only to watch them turn around and stab you in the back .. and rest assured they would at the very first opportunity in whatever coalition or arrangment you had set up !!! BETTER idea – Rise Up for your own party and votye for what you believe in – who knows maybe it would be you as the official oppostion and the CPC in the House battling it out and the Liberals in the background wasting space :)

  27. i think that is self-evident, no? the Liberals can't fight for themselves and the press wants a horserace.

    it's pathetic, and it artificially inflates the Liberals real support, but it's just the way she goes.

  28. huh?

  29. Layton is a great speaker but he's a complete jerk when you meet him in person. I used to a high opinion of the NDP until I had the displeasure of meeting Mr Layton.

  30. Layton is a great speaker but he's a complete jerk when you meet him in person. I used to a high opinion of the NDP until I had the displeasure of meeting Mr Layton.

    • I don't think you have to meet him in person to see that he's a jerk. He farts higher than his ass– that's obvious. It all comes down to who you would want as PM if somebody bombed the CN Tower.

      • WTF would who we have as PM have to do with a CN Tower bombing? You do realize that it would be the city who would have to deal with most of the problem, followed by the province, right? What would our PM do, besides use it as an opportunity to grandstand? It's not like we have the military capability to foolishly invade a country or something.

    • I wouldn"t buy a car from him.

  31. Layton has always been a two bit camera loving phony. Iggy has always been for Harper. His goal was , A pension, good health care, and move closer to the United States. All on track. We already have the best PM in years, and would win an easy majority, except for his stupid french speaking in America, embarrassment. No President has time to listen to what Canada has to say., TWICE! Nor does any progressive successful Country! Even France uses the English language for progressing!

  32. .

    Polls. Whatever.

    Harper, the pleasant-faced Bashar al-Assad shows he’s a good Tea Party Republican,

    and da Hahvahd Bruiser shows he’s a good Democrat.

    I will vote for whoever is being most CANADIAN.

    .

  33. .
    Polls. Whatever.

    Harper, the pleasant-faced Bashar al-Assad shows he’s a good Tea Party Republican,

    and da Hahvahd Bruiser shows he’s a good Democrat.

    I will vote for whoever is being most CANADIAN.
    .

  34. .
    I don't want a pleasant-faced Bashar Assad mentality who will run this country like the combination of manager of a mega-mall and Beijing Politburo.

    Or an apologist for American exceptionalism and extraordinary rendering, who votes most of the time with the above (whenever he shows up).

    Sorry to sound patriotic and parochial, but I'm voting for a CANADIAN.
    .

  35. .
    I don't want a pleasant-faced Bashar Assad mentality who will run this country like the combination of manager of a mega-mall and Beijing Politburo.

    Or an apologist for American exceptionalism and extraordinary rendering, who votes most of the time with the above (whenever he shows up).

    Sorry to sound patriotic and parochial, but I'm voting for a CANADIAN.
    .

    • WTF are you talking about? When you read back your posts, do they actually make any sense to you?

  36. Phoniness is the least of Layton's faults, but the best defamation-option for the evidence-challenged.

    When someone with Layton's persuasions spend years fielding academic questions from young people, and meetings with labour folk, the phoniness is just burned out of you.

    When the NDP establishes, or shifts, a platform, even where Layton might disagree, he appropriates the consensus as his own and runs with it. Like any politician, he's not perfect at it.

    But compared to Ignatieff's morph-artist, flavour-of-the-week, it's as sincere as you can get.

    On the other hand, Harper is completely sincere. He will run this place like a Beijing politburo machine. Or a mega-mall. Everyone knows that, and his supporters want that. That's why they want him to win. Don't look for 'hidden agendas'. Vote for Harper and get complete sincerity.
    .

  37. LAYTON MANIA!!! :-)

  38. At the beginning of the campaign it seemed that the Liberals and the NDP were in a race to the bottom. Well' it looks like the NDP have pulled out and have conceded victory to the liberals.

  39. At the beginning of the campaign it seemed that the Liberals and the NDP were in a race to the bottom. Well' it looks like the NDP have pulled out and have conceded victory to the liberals.

  40. The day will come when the NDP will be the official opposition and the day will come when the NDP hold power in Canada. It happened here in Nova Scotia after many long years in the wilderness. Lets review Tommy Douglas quote about the government of the mice.
    First the mice voted for the black cats. Then some mice started to disappear, and eventually the mice got rid of the black cats. Then the mice voted for the white cats. Much better for a while, then the mice started disappearing again. Finally the mice voted for a government of the mice, by the mice and for the mice which is why Canadians should vote NDP- vintage Tommy Douglas, but still true today:)

  41. The day will come when the NDP will be the official opposition and the day will come when the NDP hold power in Canada. It happened here in Nova Scotia after many long years in the wilderness. Lets review Tommy Douglas quote about the government of the mice.
    First the mice voted for the black cats. Then some mice started to disappear, and eventually the mice got rid of the black cats. Then the mice voted for the white cats. Much better for a while, then the mice started disappearing again. Finally the mice voted for a government of the mice, by the mice and for the mice which is why Canadians should vote NDP- vintage Tommy Douglas, but still true today:)

    • I think Jack Layton probably understands the working man and woman better than any other candidate, Annette, but those expensive suits kind of lose me. Jack Layton is no Tommy Douglas.

      • Jack and the misses' will retire from "public service" as multi- millionaires. They have about as much in common with the common man as Donald Trump, for Pete's sake. And Annette, I live in Nova Scotia, my parents were hardcore NDPers. Dexter will be going the way of Bob Rae, one and out. Ask the people of Ontario if they are going to elect another provincial NDP government anytime soon. Not gonna happen.

  42. If any of the parties want a majority in the next elections, they will have to choose new leaders. Fat chance of the Tories dumping Stephen Harper, unless their projected plurality blows away like dust in the wind.

  43. If any of the parties want a majority in the next elections, they will have to choose new leaders. Fat chance of the Tories dumping Stephen Harper, unless their projected plurality blows away like dust in the wind.

  44. I think Jack Layton probably understands the working man and woman better than any other candidate, Annette, but those expensive suits kind of lose me. Jack Layton is no Tommy Douglas.

  45. I don't think you have to meet him in person to see that he's a jerk. He farts higher than his ass– that's obvious. It all comes down to who you would want as PM if somebody bombed the CN Tower.

  46. That'd be an interesting look for Canada to have the NDP with the second most # of seats in the house. Depending on how things fall, it could be that the NDP is able to work their way into a minority government. It'll be an interesting next couple of weeks!

    With Love and Gratitude,

    Jeremiah

  47. As a Quebecois my vote goes to either Block or NDP, can't give my vote to someone who was appointed "leader" by Party Bosses and members of that Party are silent.

  48. As a Quebecois my vote goes to either Block or NDP, can't give my vote to someone who was appointed "leader" by Party Bosses and members of that Party are silent.

  49. It is nauseating watching their appointed "leader" speak about democracy, nothing democratic in any PP with Party loyalty, that is value I associate with Mr. Adolf and Uncle Joe.

  50. Any Liberal with respect for democracy and Liberty will vote NDP, IMHO.

  51. Is it against the rules to vote Block or NDP?
    Please give me the approved PP to vote for.
    TIA

  52. Is it against the rules to vote Block or NDP?
    Please give me the approved PP to vote for.
    TIA

  53. Well…if they did happen to get the second most # of seats in a minority Conservative situation…it opens up an even more interesting scenario.

    Prime Minister Jack Layton.

  54. Stay tuned…Chretien is about to make his photo-op with Iggy.

  55. WTF would who we have as PM have to do with a CN Tower bombing? You do realize that it would be the city who would have to deal with most of the problem, followed by the province, right? What would our PM do, besides use it as an opportunity to grandstand? It's not like we have the military capability to foolishly invade a country or something.

  56. WTF are you talking about? When you read back your posts, do they actually make any sense to you?

  57. Well folks as of 3pm April 19: I just looked at a graph of all the polling done the last few days. It has consistently shown the Liberals with about a 10/12 point lead over the NDP and the Conservatives with a 10/12 point lead over the Liberals. The one case where it showed a tie was likely a statistical anomaly, likely explained by the ridiculously small sample they take in each region of the country. Other than trying to attract attention to the magazine I find the headlines screaming that Jack is overtaking Iggie as totally disingenuous. But then it seems that most media in this country have their own agenda and accurate reporting is at the bottom of the list. Cheers.

  58. Well folks as of 3pm April 19: I just looked at a graph of all the polling done the last few days. It has consistently shown the Liberals with about a 10/12 point lead over the NDP and the Conservatives with a 10/12 point lead over the Liberals. The one case where it showed a tie was likely a statistical anomaly, likely explained by the ridiculously small sample they take in each region of the country. Other than trying to attract attention to the magazine I find the headlines screaming that Jack is overtaking Iggie as totally disingenuous. But then it seems that most media in this country have their own agenda and accurate reporting is at the bottom of the list. Cheers.

  59. Jack and the misses' will retire from "public service" as multi- millionaires. They have about as much in common with the common man as Donald Trump, for Pete's sake. And Annette, I live in Nova Scotia, my parents were hardcore NDPers. Dexter will be going the way of Bob Rae, one and out. Ask the people of Ontario if they are going to elect another provincial NDP government anytime soon. Not gonna happen.

  60. Jack won the debates for me, no other leader can touch Jack as an average Joe Canadian you can TRUST.

    I was considering voting Liberal(ABHarperRegime), but when Jack mentioned the Liberal leaders lack of attendance it really hit a nerve for me, as I've always thought to myself that I just cant picture Iggy sitting their in opposition if he looses the leadership?, I think he'll be long gone back to his American home.

  61. Jack won the debates for me, no other leader can touch Jack as an average Joe Canadian you can TRUST.

    I was considering voting Liberal(ABHarperRegime), but when Jack mentioned the Liberal leaders lack of attendance it really hit a nerve for me, as I've always thought to myself that I just cant picture Iggy sitting their in opposition if he looses the leadership?, I think he'll be long gone back to his American home.

  62. My respect for Canadians is slowly increasing after these latest polls, keep up the NDP support. Jack Layton is the only one I find trustworthy out of the 4 major parties (he is by far the most consistant). His goal of decriminalizing marijuana will help stop all this horrible gang violence in BC. Maijuana is a soft drug (has no addictive chemicals) and it is very sad that people are dying over something less harmful than alcohol. Stop the violence, Bill s-10 will lead to more violence (look how it's worked in the US). VOTE NDP = SAVE CANADA, VOTE Liberal = NO CHANGE, VOTE CONSERVATIVE = SELL CANADA, VOTE GREEN PARTY = WASTED VOTE

  63. My respect for Canadians is slowly increasing after these latest polls, keep up the NDP support. Jack Layton is the only one I find trustworthy out of the 4 major parties (he is by far the most consistant). His goal of decriminalizing marijuana will help stop all this horrible gang violence in BC. Maijuana is a soft drug (has no addictive chemicals) and it is very sad that people are dying over something less harmful than alcohol. Stop the violence, Bill s-10 will lead to more violence (look how it's worked in the US). VOTE NDP = SAVE CANADA, VOTE Liberal = NO CHANGE, VOTE CONSERVATIVE = SELL CANADA, VOTE GREEN PARTY = WASTED VOTE

  64. I wouldn"t buy a car from him.

  65. Do you really belwive what you just wrote? Really?

  66. i would like to know where you live paa. I would honestly like to know where NDP is getting all this money to raise everything and give provinces money(Quebec 25million ). Raising corp. taxes will do two things, companies will simply pass on the tax to the consumers or downsize. I don't agree with lowering the corp. tax either but I rather lower it then be paying more for things in the expensive place we call Canada.