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Patapouf is large and in charge


 

Just to back up what that other maudit anglais wrote about the (supposedly) upcoming election, here are some figures from a Léger poll released on Monday:

  • Liberals: 42%
  • PQ: 34%
  • ADQ: 14%

Of course, Charest hasn’t actually called the election yet. And while La Presse‘s Denis Lessard insists the premier’s been planning one for a long time, Le Devoir‘s Antoine Robitaille reports no decision had been made until the opposition parties’ weekend pow-wows.

Either way, Pauline Marois apparently wants no part of an election and, if I’m Mario Dumont, I’m praying she succeeds in delaying it. The ADQ is heading into the race with no momentum whatsoever—even its own members aren’t too fond of the party right now. As for the PQ’s chances, unless it catches lightning in a bottle like the ADQ did in 2007, they’ll probably pick up enough seats to become official opposition, but it doesn’t look like Quebecers are about to elect their first-ever female premier.

All of which begs the question: How, exactly, did Jean Charest go from being the most widely mocked lame-duck premier in modern history to being all but assured of a third consecutive mandate?


 

Patapouf is large and in charge

  1. Does Quebec have a fixed election law? One with teeth, I mean . . .

  2. So, assuming the ADQ is roadkill, how do their former supporters break?

  3. Wait, since the answer to my question above is literally staring me in the face (the poll), what I mean is, in terms of ridings what does the drop in ADQ support mean?

  4. No, Quebec doesn’t have a fixed-date election law. As for which way ADQ supporters break, well, that’s the $100,000 question.

    I would think geography is a good way of looking at it. The Liberals might pick up a few extra seats in Quebec City, Montreal’s north shore, and Eastern Quebec. The PQ will likely benefit in the Saguenay, Cote-Nord, parts of the Laurentians, and Montreal’s south shore. But this is really nothing more than a stab in the dark; I’m basing it on where the ADQ managed to infiltrate the traditional party strongholds and assuming those votes are going to go back where they came from. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2003 election repeat itself, only with the ADQ keeping more than 4 seats.

  5. Thanks, Philippe, I look forward to following the election.

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