Poll: Tories and Liberals deadlocked - Macleans.ca

Poll: Tories and Liberals deadlocked

NDP recorded highest level of support in more than two years


The federal Conservatives and Liberals are deadlocked in the latest EKOS poll. Neither party was able to secure more than 30 per cent support from the Canadian electorate, with 29.4 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, while 28.6 per cent saying they would support the Liberals. With 19.3 per cent support, the NDP recorded its highest level of support in more than two years of polling. The survey also suggests that Canadians have a more optimistic view about the long-term implications of their financial situation. Around 28 per cent said that over the next year or so, their short-term personal financial situation would be worse than it is today, compared with 31 per cent who said it would be better. Even better, 45 per cent said their long-term financial outlook would improve, compared to just 20 per cent who said it would be worse.

CBC News

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Poll: Tories and Liberals deadlocked

  1. Sure, just like Smitherman and Rob Ford were in a "dead heat", eh EKOS?

    • Ekos are the worst polls. It's not surprising they're biased – they're the ones typically commissioned by the CBC, and the pollster Graves is an unabashed liberal.

      • In the interest of fairness,

        from the last EKOS poll on the Toronto mayor's race

        Over the final three-day roll, Mr. Ford enjoyed a near 15-point lead over Mr. Smitherman (48% to 33%). Mr. Ford has a huge lead with older voters. Mr Smitherman does very well with the most educated voters, but this will not be a large enough advantage to surpass Mr. Ford's overall advantage. Education and age will be the key fault lines remaining after the winner is declared. If only the university educated voted, Mr. Smitherman would win handily. If the ballots were restricted to older votes or those without a university education, Mr. Ford would receive a crushing landslide victory.
        As it is, this campaign will vividly reveal the potency of the populist, conservative wave evident in upper North American politics, and the continued woes of more progressive politics. Barring some sort of dramatic and frankly unlikely shift in the electorate, Rob Ford will emerge as the next mayor of Canada's largest city on Monday.

        Mr. Ford won by 11 points, capturing 47 per cent of the vote to Mr. Smitherman's 36 per cent

        • Boy, that Ekos is sure liberal biased.

          I'll not hold my breath waiting for scf to issue an apology.

          • Apology? Are you kidding me?

            You're one sensitive individual.

        • Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

  2. The polls are always the same year after year and Iggy going too win the next election….as if!

  3. Same old, same old. I think if the Liberal party were to get someone more dynamic, it would be a cakewalk for them to be elected. The NDP is gaining because so many Liberals are disheartened with the static position of the party under Ignatieff, so are looking at the NDP. At the same time, Harper's going nowhere – just treading water with his same old base – the ROC just hasn't and will not be taking to him. We've seen his true colours and he just doesn't represent even slightly anything near the majority of Canadians and never will.

    • If one were to take the racist, Separatist voters out of the mix, with regards to how the electorate voted, than PM Harper would have garnered 55% of the vote in the so-called ROC.

      • "IF" – a small word that can mean so much. As my grandpappy used to say "IF the dog hadn't stopped to pee, he would have caught the rabbit".

        IF Harper appealed to more people, he might get a majority. IF the ROC loved Harper, he might get a majority. IF Harper didn't continually come across as such a mean-spirited, cold and vindictive little tool, he might get a majority. IF Ignatieff were more forceful and on track, he might get a majority….IF ….IF…..IF …….. just meaningless speculation.

        All Canadians have the right (and duty!) to vote, regardless of what someone chooses to label them. I just wish we could emulate Australia and make voting mandatory. At least then, we'd have a pretty accurate indication of who is really representing the majority. As it stands now, whoever is elected is just representing the most votes garnered from an apathetic and generally older "light-turn-out" electorate – not a very reliable test for most representative of the actual majority of eligible voters when so few bother to vote.

  4. Wait until Green Party leader Elizabeth May unleashes her vocal chords and party platform in the next federal election.
    By that time the world will be locked in a devastating trade and currency war, and people will be ready for something new and well thought out, like the Green Party platform.
    When the final results come in, the Green Party will have several seats, perhaps even be the Official Opposition, and force the new minority government to act in ways past governments should have been acting for decades.
    The Green Party of Canada will surprise the pundits.

    • Hahaha. You're funny! Green Party as the official opposition went a little too far in hilarity. Thinking that the Green party can get a seat is the right amount of humor though. Elisabeth May can't even win in Sannich/Gulf Islands. She is splitting the left vote of an already conservative riding. The Green Party is a joke and it probably always will be. It will certainly be a joke as long as Elisabeth May is at the helm.

      Good luck with your fantasies and drug inspired hallucinations.

      • Remember the old Reform Party — and where it is today, albeit under a new name and a guy named Harper.
        And there was no global trade and currency war brewing at that time — a war that will rocket the Green Party into popularity because of its thought-out platform.
        Teeves, even you will consider the Green Party when economics dictate the need for something new.

    • Yeah, they might get 2 seats! 2!!!

  5. <yawn>

  6. Polls are nice filler and give a snapshot as to how the electorate feels at a given point in time. As TJ2010 points out, they don't always serve as good indicators of what will happen when the polls open.

    What I'd really like to see, though, is a complete ban on publication of polling results during the election period The parties can use them internally, but no numbers to appear in the media.

    This would force the electorate (and the media) to actually pay attention to the actual platforms and candidates, rather than on who is out front, and vote according to convictions rather than on who is leading. We would have a better-informed electorate – and we might see more people actually get out and vote, because they won't be sure if their preferred party is in the lead.

    • I completely agree! The concept that someone is "leading" an election is false. How can that be? This is not a race that can be viewed, such as a 400 metre race. There, we can see how people are doing. In voting, it is a complex process that lies behind the decision at the voting booth. When polls are published, we want "our" preferred candidate to be seen as leading. And we'd have less "strategic" voting and more informed and honest choices on who we want to represent our respective ridings. I agree that numbers should not be published – but it'll never happen…

  7. What else is new? The reason for the so-called deadlock is simply that the 2 old line parties have really the same ideology and when in power pick up a few new and sensible planks from the NDP to show that they are progressive but in the end we end up with the same old policies. When will we learn?

  8. the tories are up to their usual propaganda B.S. i haven't seen any polls. besides, harper is the most useless piece of s— since mulroney. everything he touches turns to garbage. everything out of his yap IS s—. and another thing; HARPER DOESN'T DO A DAMN THING !!! canadians have a bumbling bafoon as a prime minister. what a effing joke.

  9. Iggy and the liberals with a majority in 2011!!!

    • I noticed you didn't say a majority of what.

      Its much more likely that by the end of 2011 Iggy will be out of politics altogether, back to his ivory tower.

  10. I take it "oxy" is an abbreviation for Oxygen –which is what Ms. May is in today's politics; you know — oxygen, essential to life and which is involved in combustion.
    Thanks for noticing.

  11. "Liberal" pollster Frank (Gravy) Graves is a funny guy. Tell us another one Gravy. The only useful purpose for a poll at this time is for the media to continue to manipulate and speculate, all sound and fury, signifying nothing.

  12. I wonder how long the electorate will be fooled by the likes of Harper,,Baird,Flaherty and company.The biggest liars ever to sit in parliament(excludind Mulroney that is). Wake up Canada!!!!

    • So then what do you have to say about the last two Liberal leaders we had? You know, the ones that were involved in the sponsorship scandal as well as tax evasion.

  13. vote liberal party vote dynamic

  14. With Ekos polling(with Graves behind it), results will always be questionable. It has lost its credibility quite a while back.

  15. A poll a couple of weeks ago showed the Tories well out in front. Of course, it wasn't an EKOS/Liberal bagman poll, so Macleans didn't mention that.

  16. I do not think the public is in love with Harper but the liberals are not an effective opposition party.I also think many people are looking at the ndp although they have not commited to the ndp.