Pollster predicts Liberals' urban strongholds will turn NDP - Macleans.ca

Pollster predicts Liberals’ urban strongholds will turn NDP

Predictions include losses for Liberals Marc Garneau, Marlene Jennings and Gerard Kennedy


Figures from a new poll conducted by Forum Research and The Hill Times show large cracks in the former Liberal fortresses of downtown Toronto and Montreal. The survey of 3,150 Canadians puts the Conservatives at 34 per cent support, the NDP at 31 per cent and the Liberals down to just 22 per cent. In light of the poll, Forum Research’s Lorne Bozinoff projects a weakened Conservative minority of 137 seats, with 108 going to the NDP, 60 for the Liberals and just three for the Bloc Québécois. Among the Liberal incumbents projected to lose their seats are one-time leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy of Parkdale-High Park, former astronaut Marc Garneau of Westmount-Ville Marie and Marlene Jennings, who has held Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine for 14 years. The poll also predicts a loss for prominent Québec Conservative and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon.

The Hill Times

Filed under:

Pollster predicts Liberals’ urban strongholds will turn NDP

  1. "Among the Liberal incumbents projected to lose their seats are one-time leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy of Parkdale-High Park, former astronaut Marc Garneau of Westmount-Ville Marie and Marlene Jennings, who has held Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine for 14 years. The poll also predicts a loss for prominent Québec Conservative and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon."

    I wish we did UK style where candidates gather together and learn election results all at once on stage, live, in front of constituents. Would love to watch some of these big names lose, break down and cry on stage. Tremendous entertainment.

    • Tremendous entertainment….for sociopaths.

    • would luv to see Iggy and Ducceppe hugging each other full of tears, then suddenly they form a coalition and jack is PM? no

    • Looks like NDG is solidly in the hands of the Liberal Party and Marlene Jennings loyalty to her constitutes will keep her firmly seated in the house….

  2. Parkdale-High Park is hardly a Liberal fortress – the NDP won it in 2006, and holds it provincially.

    • Indeed, I think it is one of the places outside of my riding where I know the NDP candidate's name, Peggy Nash, who is challenging Kennedy due to the sea of orange signs I have seen in visiting family.

  3. Well.. if this prediction comes true, and Harper's actions have resulted in an NDP minority supported by the Liberals, I'm not sure Mr. Harper will be able to run fast enough to dodge the knives looking to get him out of the party entirely.

    Also a nice set-up for Rae to take over the Liberal party in a leadership review.

    • Rae is too old. The Liberals will go with someone younger, and likely more right-wing.

      • Absolutely. They'll spend a few years in purgatory and end up running right down the centre during the next election. At least that's what they'll plan to do. I have a feeling there will be a couple of elections before they reemerge as a serious contender. They need to do some soul-searching.

        Yay for crazy Canadian politics!

    • Putting Bob Rae in would be a bad move for the Liberals. Likable guy. Terrible fiscal record. When you got an NDP that's stronger than ever before, and a Conservative party that's trying to take credit for your prudent fiscal management, you need someone that's a perfect fiscal conservative and social Liberal.

  4. WOW! – like I said folks what a day to be a Tory and watch all of this might be worth it just to watch the demise of the once might natural governing party – you can smell the fear and terror in Liberals everywhere – the best part is that a good chunk of Liberals are more afraid of the NDP absorbing their party right now and want to setup ABN vote swapping = hahahahah!

    • Will you be laughing so hysterically when PM Jack shuts down the oil sands? Yikes!

      • He's not going to shut down the Oil Sands. Have you even read the platforms?

        • I haven't read the NDP environmental platform in detail. I wouldn't actually take their platform at face value anyway, as it is unimplementable. I mean, they're going to raise several billion dollars from a carbon cap and trade scheme in the new few months? Right!

          • Maybe they will stop subsidizing oil corporations. That would free up a lot of cash.

          • above the standard subsidization that all corporations get, can you please give me a dollar value on exactly how much cash that would free up?

            I will give you a hint, it is less than a quarter…

          • Right. So you haven’t read the platform but you know it can’t be implemented? Yet another “informed” Conservative voter.

          • what makes you say the he is a conservative?

        • He's not going to shut down the Oil Sands but he will shut down the Tar Sands.


          • He won't do either – he is not that big of a moron. (We can hope)

    • We may yet miss the Liberals. For one, we have been the beneficiaries of vote-splits on the left for the past few years. For another, Jack Layton may become the Prime Minister of Canada. For all his faults, Michael Ignatieff has a costed platform, a sensible position on Afghanistan, and comes from the party that tamed the deficit and launched many of the tax cuts Harper has continued to deliver. Are the Liberals crooks? Yeah, but we kind of are too.

      We really don't know what the NDP will look like in power. Their caucus is full of placeholders – some are separatists (and I suspect there are strong organizational links between the NDP and Quebec Solidaire), and at least one is a former candidate of the communist party. Their agenda of constitutional reform is incredibly dangerous to the survival of this country. Meech and Charlottetown raised expectations that could not be met – releasing the forces of regional angst. While Canada's finances are comparatively sound, the impact of the NDP in the finance department could be disastrous. The Canadian dollar is already weakening on the expectation of and NDP win. Look at their promise to fund new doctors and nurses – the real cost was something like 20 times greater than they claim. They're going to raise corporate taxes and use cap and trade as a piggy bank – and that's just to fund their lowballed spending estimates.

      If Canada elects a minority parliament, we'd better hope that there are a few Liberals left – either to prop us up, or at least to act as a brake on the NDP.

      • Well, this was a predictable consequence of the CPC strategy of putting the squeeze on the Liberals. I'd think the Conservatives would rather alternate holding power with the Libs than the NDP. Conservatives might be able to form government more than 30% of the time with the Liberal party out of the way, but for the time they are not in power they are going to howl with outrage. I'll be by turns amused and depressed.

      • Harper may well live to regret his constant campaign to destroy the Liberals. Could end up being the worst thing he ever did. Mind you, the Liberals really only have themselves to blame. They opted for lame-duck leaders twice in a row. Had they gone for a John Manley or a Frank McKenna instead of tools like Dion and Iggy, they wouldn't be in this mess. But the Liberals have moved so far to the left now, that a decent chap like Manley just has no chance, and even McKenna wouldn't touch the leadership of such a party with a ten foot poll. Harper merely gave them the rope they're currently hanging themselves with. He just underestimated how enthusiastically they'd set about doing it.

        • But the Liberals have moved so far to the left now, that a decent chap like Manley just has no chance

          The issue here is that somebody like Manley probably shares a lot more in common with Ignatieff than believed. The strongest narrative against Ignatieff by more left leaning and progressive voters is that he is not progressive enough. Progressive bloggers and voters, who not so coincidentally have slight NDP leanings, have laboured quite a bit at trying to document the ideological similarities between Ignateiff and Harper. This is, of course, self-serving, but I cannot doubt its effectiveness as I think the narrative that Ignatieff is indistinguishable from Harper has finally resulted in a bleeding of the more progressive constituency of the Liberal party to the NDP.

          But your opinion that the party is far more left of center now sort of illustrates the pincer-like situation with the Liberal party: For really right leaning people, Ignatieff is too left while to the progressives, he is not left enough. Ignatieff's foreign policy history seems to suggest to me that progressives have more of a case, especially when you consider that it is hard for the Liberal party to articulate an alternative to Harper much less defend against the claim that they were propping up the CPC all this time.

    • It's good to see you laughing through your CPC tears psiclone. What has me chuckling is how Kenny is going to dodge personal questions when he runs for the leader of the Opposition in 6 months.

      • For the same reasons Baird won't even run?

  5. Too bad Harper will be gone from the Conservative party after his hubris to bring on another election to chase the elusive majority. He's most certainly to face a leadership review, along with the certain ousting of Ignatief. Good riddance to both of them!

    • Don't forget May and Duceppe will both likely be dispatched as well.

  6. I don't think Rae will ever be a leader again. If it wasn't for the mess he made I think there would be many more people who would be supporting the new NDP. My parents for example will never vote NDP because of what took place last time. I feel that red and blue have both had more than enough tries at this and we continue to see the hidden scams and bad policies. Its time to give Jack his turn!

    • Yes, it's time for Jack's hidden scams and bad policies! Hooray!

      • Harrumph…you don't know Jack :-)

  7. Pretty hard to believe their seat projections. These look like the absolute rosiest picture one could paint for the NDP. I just can't imagine the Bloc being reduced to a couple of seats in one election…I have a hard time thinking the NDP can even match them in seat count…I guess we'll see.

    I'm still thinking very slim Conservative majority (by just a couple of seats) and the number of Liberal/NDP seats being very close together.

    • 1993. Never forget.

      • True enough, but the 1993 result was very much the direct result of two new parties stepping up and stealing/splitting away the PC vote: Reform in English Canada, and the BQ in Quebec. There isn't really a comparable or equivalent dynamic going on in this election. I agree there's a big shift in voter intention going on, particularly in Quebec. But comparing this to 1993, and expecting an equivalent result, is comparing apples to oranges.

        Having said that, the LPC braintrust was foolish to trigger this election, and I, like many others, was saying so at the time.

        • I think this is a small-scale 1993, where this only impacts Quebec at the expense of the BQ.

          At least, that's what I hope.

          And yes, I've always thought that the Liberals were silly for triggering this election, as was the CPC for engineering it.

    • It happened in 1993 when cons were left with 2 seats inOttawa.

  8. Y'see, the kids, they listen to the rap music, which gives them the brain damage.

  9. I live overseas and sent in my ballot by mail. I am an NDP supporter, I voted for the NDP like I did in the last two elections. But i have a really hard believing that the NDP is going to win 100+ seats and lead a minority government with Jack Layton as prime minister. I think on election day the NDP will do well but no where close to these new seat projections.

    Last year in the British general election the Liberal Democrats (UK closest version of the NDP) also surged in the poll late in the election, and many were predicting that they will over a 100 seats. On election day they lost 5 seats and now have 57 seats.

    I want the NDP to do well, but i won't believe it until i see it on election day.

    • I believe the British comparison is apt. The Liberal-Dem support seemed strong, and "surging", but never showed up at the voting both. Could well be the same for Jack, but who knows?

    • That's a good point about the British Liberal Democrats.

  10. Just like talk of a Conservative majority was able to talk the country back down to a minority in a prior election, I wonder if this will spook the country into backing down from its Layton-mania by Monday.

    Maybe Wells is gonna have to revise one of his rules…

    • Only if the media gets over its gushing love affair with Layton and starts giving him a hard time. Even conservative commentators were gleeful over Jack's surge up to this point. They may have reason to wish they hadn't embraced him quite to the extent that they did.

  11. Welcome to Canada's first minority NDP government, Don't let the door hit Harper on his way out.

    • By all means let it hit him, if it makes him leave faster.

  12. Why would any Canadian in their left mind vote NDP?!…

    A party who has forced MEDICARE on every CDN?, only people who can pay out of their own pockets wile bleeding to death in a ditch should be able to get medical treatment or too bad!…

    A party whose founder Tommy Douglas was voted the GREATEST CANADIAN in the history of our country!, who does he think he is?!…

    A party who cares about the people?!?!, forget the people!, what about the oil companies, banks & big corporations?!, their only making millions in profits!, crap I'm out of bread & water again…

    A leader who thinks the credit card companies are charging us to much interest?!, who cares if Canadians are drowning themselves in dept!, keep the government out of the billionaires business!…

    I mean geeze baaa! The other parties & media etc keep telling me not to vote NDP baaa! they say the SKY WILL FALL! baaa! you'd be crazy baaa! to think for yourself! baaa! you know you can TRUST what baaa! the other parties tell you to FEAR baaa!.


    • It's time for MacLeans/Intense Debate to start adding a Capcha Phrase requirement or something. I can't wait for Monday just so I don't have read this post on every bloody board here.

      • @DerekPearce

        You must be the ANTI-NDPer who reported my posts to have them removed?, what makes you so special that you cant just ignore views that don't match your own?.

        Not everyone like you reads each & every post on Macleans.

        Instead on spouting pointless babble I AT LEAST try to tell it like it is & get to as many misinformed viewers as possible, so shoot me DeceptaCON.

        I see a hellofa allot worse FEAR MONGERING comments posted on every post I post on LOL!.

        • I could be contented with an NDP government– it's more important to me that Harper be turfed out. But your constant posting of the exact same *identical* comment is not engaging in debate. It's basically spamming and it's rude.

  13. Beware the pollster folks..never heard of this latest group doing the poll which likely means their methodology is suspect at best. Follow the money is always the best case…who paid for the poll and what question was asked….I notice all that is lacking from this report.

  14. While some of the predictions seem rather outlandish this is one that could go either way as the Conservatives are not a factor at all.

  15. lT Stepford minds do tend to gather together in the cities.

  16. That only works if the Conservative numbers hold in the high thirties. Most polls, Nanos excepted, are showing the Tories in the mid-30s. Vote-splitting won't work for you if your not pulling in more than 1/3 of the vote. Chretien pulled off a majority with 37% in 1997. If the Tories can rebound to that level or higher, they might well get that majority. If they're sitting only a few points above the NDP on election night, they'll bet a thread bare minority and that's it.

    • The Tory vote is very inefficient, too, with millions of excess votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan landslides.

    • I think that depends.

      In 1988 there was only a three way split.

      Today we're looking at a five way split.

      And while the CPC has excess votes in the west that don't help their cause, the NDP always polls a lot higher than their actual turn out. And that's not mentioning the last minute conservative freak out vote that will result from the NDP being so high in the polls.

      So it seems to me that unless this wave is very large, you'll end up with no-shows, strategic voters and last minute reconsiderations that will ultimately undermine the poll results, while the CPC turn out will be exceptionally high.

      If both the LPC and NDP actual turn out is below 29% for each party and the CPC turn out is in excess of 35%, I can pretty much guarantee you a CPC majority, no matter how small.

  17. It will be Justin Trudeau to harness the newly awakened youth in Canada.

    • If the Liberals finish third, will Justin even want it? Even his old man wasn't interested in a third place party, dumping his natural NDP home for the Liberals.

  18. The ants are falling one by one, Hurrah, Hurrah. . .

  19. Has nobody thought of the obvious. If Harper doesn't get a majority, and the libs have enough seats, they could combine and run the country how they see fit. Not saying that they will, but it is a thought.

    • I think a Lib-CPC arrangement is much likelier than Lib-NDP with Libs as the junior partner. Libs are not mentally prepared for the latter scenario.

  20. Socialism spreads the poverty around and many Canadians see that as being the best solution to the envy they feel towards anyone who has worked harder than they were willing to work.

    Jack Layton has no accomplishments as a politician except for exploiting those feelings of entitlements and envy.

  21. Canadians, don't buy the FEAR…

    The New Democratic Party in the year 2011 are a CENTER-LEFT party, if you want to talk political spectrum. NOT an "EXTREME-LEFT", "FAR-LEFT", "SOCIALIST", 1902 un-democratic cut off your head if you don't comply, party…

    In the year 2011? in our DEMOCRATIC country? where the politicians are accountable to the PEOPLE?, NOT the other way around…(like Harper would have) The 1902 FEAR MONGERING catchphrases are just ridicules American style babble.

    The CENTER-left NDP will do whatever it takes to stay in power, no differently then ANY other political party, & WOW?! if they make mistakes? like EVERY other party in history?!, then VOTE them out. Back in the CONTEXT that these FEAR MONGERS are trying to use them in today?, they had NO VOTE.

    All I know is JACK is a SAINT compared to Harper. BY FAR the hardest working MP in Parliament for the PEOPLE, not to mention his team. The only thing any Canadian who cares about what's LEFT of Canada should FEAR is the Harper Regime.

    Anyone tells you different?, they are just trying to SCARE you into not voting for JACK, Boo!…