The Sword of Nanoscles is right above our heads (33/29/20/7/10)


Or – wait, I can’t tell – is that actually Foucault’s pendulum? Hopefully, the regional breakdowns will help.

Conservatives: 33 (-)

Liberals: 29 (-)

NDP: 20 (-)

Greens: 7 (-)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-1)

Undecided: 14 (-1)

Bonus interestingness:

A tasty little appetizer on why we vote the way we do, which finds that 27% of Canadians say they’re voting for “the party that can best manage the economy”, closely followed by 26% who choose a party “with views like me”, 16% who are voting “to stop the Conservatives from getting elected”, 13% for the “strongest party leader” and just 11% who “always vote for the same party.” Oh, and 6% who are “unsure”.  

UPDATE: Since it’s all status quo-y, a few notes on what has changed in the regional breakdowns:  

  • The zany moodswings amongst Atlanteans continue to rage through the numbers – Tories down six from yesterday, Liberals up and NDP down eight – and the Greens up four. (Watch out, Defence Minister, she’s coming for you!) 
  • Over in Quebec, the Conservatives are back in the teens at 19 – down one point from yesterday – as are the Liberals, who plummeted two whole points, and are now tied with the Tories. Meanwhile, the NDP is nipping at their collective heels, with 17 – four points up from yesterday – and the Bloc slides to 42 from 45. The Greens, on the other hand, don’t seem to be making much headway, boasting a modest one point rise from two to three.  
  • In Ontario, the Tories are in stable but critical condition at 28, 11 points behind the Liberals, who are down one from yesterday at 39, and the NDP soars to 23 from … 22. (Work with me here, people.)  Oh, and the Greens? Up one and sitting at 11. Double digits! Whoo! 
  • Finally, in Western Canada, the Tories now command an impressive 50% level of support – oh, Alberta, you’ll always be true – with the Liberals in second place at 26%, and the NDP at 18, and the Greens are down three points to six. 



The Sword of Nanoscles is right above our heads (33/29/20/7/10)

  1. I wonder how the people in prisons vote??

    Does anyone know which party a prisoner is likely to support??

    thanks in advance

  2. Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
    (turn and face the strain)
    Oh, look out you rock n rollers
    (turn and face the strain)
    Pretty soon now youre gonna get a little older
    Time may change me
    But I can’t trace time
    I said that time may change me
    But I can’t trace time

  3. Of course they’re voting for the party that ‘best manages the economy’

    which is why the fact that Canada’s ranked the best in the world in its banking system is nowhere to be found on the Globe’s, CBC’s, Google News’ main pages.

    It’s also the reason why the press isn’t really reporting any other of the indicators which show Canada’s preeminent position in the world.

    Parroting Dion’s attacks, oh yeah, they’ll do that.

  4. For people who supposedly like freedom, conservatives sure do want to control a whole hell of a lot. Not only do they get pissed if the media doesn’t talk about what they want them to, but they have to do it ON THE MAIN PAGE. Sorry about the allcaps. Been reading Coyne.

  5. In case you missed it,

    Andrew C. (and Kate at SDA) got this hugely important news of the moment what every concerned Canadian would want to hear right now (being in the middle of a N. American Banking crises),

    from AUSTRAILIAN Reuters.

  6. Fantastic : this election is an out and out horse race with the Conservatives leading by a nose. I can’t wait for Tuesday! there are going to be a lot of surprises this time.

  7. John D.

    Yes, only conservatives would want to know that our banking system is the soundest in the world in the middle of a banking crisis. (sarc)

    In fact, the reverse is true:

    only a purely partisan Liberal would not want people to know that Canada has the soundest banking system in the world right now.

    Politics at its worst,

    and the media are knee deep into it.

  8. which is why the fact that Canada’s ranked the best in the world in its banking system is nowhere to be found on the Globe’s, CBC’s, Google News’ main pages.

    Haha, Google is in on the conspiracy now, eh kody? The enemy surrounds us, and attacks from the four corners of the Earth…

  9. Darn – that uptick with the “guys” saved Harper’s bacon – for now!
    Dion’s numbers really jumped in Atlantic Canada – I wonder whether they were taken before or after that rousing speech in Halifax?
    Interesting leaderships number though..all Harper’s Teflon seems to be on the seat of his pants…as he slides down those graphs…Weeeeee!

  10. These numbers are familiar… federal election 08 could be remembered by historians as the big nothing.

  11. Again:

    Anyone know if federal prisoners support a particular party in plurality??

    thanks in advance

  12. Oh – and it’s neither the Sword of Nanoscles nor Foucault’s pendulum – Kady..

    Harper is poised above Nanosccam’s Razor…and the simple explanation is…when you live by the Leadership criteria – you will die by the Leadership Criteria…

  13. Olaf,

    no, Google just rounds it up.

    The fact that its not listed means its not “important” news of the day to the Canadian media.

    Hey, I’m sure partisan Liberals here are completely fine with this (though I suspect some may actually put partisanship aside and be concerned by the fact that THIS isn’t headline grabbing in the circumstances, but a Cartoon bird was),

    but the average Canadian,

    who just wants the important facts (not just for the election but to placate real fears that they have),

    I suspect they won’t be too pleased.

  14. Kody – I have a question for you – how much is CPC paying the MSM not to breath a word about the EU-FTA?

  15. Hi, I’m an ordinary Canadian, I don’t know nuthin unless it’s on the front page of every single canadian news website. hyuck.

  16. Ok, good. I thought you were being irrational there for a moment. Needless to say, I was shocked.

  17. What are you even talking about? It’s on the front of both the CBC news page and the main page.

  18. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought the frontpages for the news sites (at least CBC) put the articles that are viewed the most on the front (as opposed to putting them on the front so they will be viewed the most). So if Canadians are interested in the story like you say, it should automatically be on the front page (which it actually seems to be)

  19. Bob Ward:

    It’s generally assumed, if not shown, that prisoners support Liberals in droves. Not surprising, given how soft they are on crime. Here’s one story from 2006: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060112/elxn_prisoners_vote_060111/20060113?s_name=election2006&no_ads.

    CTV.ca News Staff

    Friday was voting day for prisoners across Canada. About 35,000 were eligible to vote, and many seemed to be voting Liberal in order to protect privileges that Conservatives threaten to take away.

    “We’re all voting for the Liberals, just because we want to keep our vote,” Jeff Power, an inmate at Manitoba’s Stony Mountain facility told CTV Winnipeg. “We don’t want to lose rights like our TVs, stuff like that.”

    There’s no question, Harper supports harsher policies for those who break the law. The Liberals are also promising tougher sentences for criminals, especially for violent and gun-related crimes. But the Tory platform — and Harper’s position against allowing prisoners to vote — is what seems to have struck fear in inmates’ hearts.

    “No, I don’t agree with prisoner voting,” Harper has stated plainly.

    At least one of his opponents feels differently.

    “The courts don’t sentence by taking away citizenship, and citizens have a right to vote in this country,” said New Democrat Leader Jack Layton.

  20. Toby:

    You are incorrect. It has nothing to do with page views. If it did, how would “new” stories show up at all?

  21. “I wonder how the people in prisons vote??”

    I asked Conrad Black, but he wouldn’t tell me.

  22. Kady, much as I love your hilarity & insightfulness, as a student of statistics I must correct your entire update portion with the following:

    ‘No change whatsoever’.

  23. thanks Jobu
    I was just curious to see how prisoners were voting.

    Not surprised they support the Liberals.

    I guess liberals must be proud to know they share the same vales and dreams as..er…rapist…murders, drug dealers, child perpetrators…..

    Its all makin sense now

  24. If you look at the materials submitted with the SCC case, I think you’ll find that prisoners tend to support the Cons.

  25. bob ward, please go somewhere far away and keep that kind of crap off the boards

  26. Condrad Black

    He stole his own money away from those Rich elite business men……..he must be stopped I say…er …well…um ….ah……thats what the Liberals say!

    good day

  27. Matt;

    If prisoners supported the CPC, which I HIGHLY DOUBT and find laughable, the more nobler of Harper to be strongly in favour of using the notwithstanding clause to take away that right to vote.

    The Liberals and NDP on the other hand, either welcome votes from anyone or can sympathize for the need of criminals to have TVs, or both.

  28. “I guess liberals must be proud to know they share the same vales and dreams as..er…rapist…murders, drug dealers, child perpetrators…..”

    Well, I know I for one also would like a nice chianti.

  29. So Our Leader is going to throw more kids in prison to ….. increase the Liberal vote ??

  30. So if the Conservatives lose, it’ll be the media and prisoners fault.

    Is that the new talking point over at SDA? Yeesh.

  31. Sisyphus,

    In case you didn’t know, 14-16 year olds can’t vote.

  32. Another nail in bub’s coffin…
    just watched Sheila Copps being interviewed on CBC Newsworld
    she mentioned that Jean Cretien would be out on the stump for Dion tomorrow and she will be campaigning with Dion in Brmapton on Saturday..
    since he had Paul Martin out at the beginning of this week – we have seen both sides of the Liberal scism out there supporting Dion in these last days…
    Harper’s visions of the knives coming out already as the putative leaders hone them up for their leadership campaigns is becoming as unlikely as Harper stopping his own – Weeee – leadership slide between now and the election…

  33. They will when they get to voting age, if Harper tries to throw them in there for life in prison.

    Not that he’ll get to. The Supreme Court which has already ruled on age and anonymity would find this measure unconstitutional within minutes of it being challenged.

  34. Jean Chretien’s wife just had heart surgery, otherwise he likely would have been out campaiging.

  35. WW,

    That’s Ruby Dhalla’s seat. A rather popular MP if I recall correctly. One whom you wouldn’t think would need Dion to personally stop by to help her.

    If Dion is campaigning to hold onto Dhalla’s seat in the final 2 days of the campaign, and needs to pull in Sheila Copps to do it, then I question how that can possibly be interpreted as good news for the Liberals.

  36. I’m betting on Seabiscuit.

  37. Please, Scott. Don’t let sober facts get in the way of mindless garbage. That’s not what these blogs are for doin’.

  38. Whoa whoa whoa. Is Scott sober? Because I really feel like that gives him an unfair advantage here…

  39. Well, there went the level of political discourse on this board

  40. Do prisoners who vote overwhelmingly vote liberal, vote for their local MP or do the prisoners who vote for the liberals(by a vast majority) vote for the liberal candidate in their home riding??

  41. Can we all agree not to feed the troll?

  42. Ah, the good ol’ Nanos numbers for the Atlantic.

    I think this is the first time that the Greens have shown a percentage higher than the margin of error for the region though.

    Either that, or we’ve all been off our Prozac again.

  43. bob ward- wow! I never saw that one coming! You mean your innocent and totally genuine question (for which we were all thanked in advance) actually led to the revelation that prisoners like the Liberals?! Wow! Who would have guessed! And it means SO MUCH!!! Just so I have this straight are the Liberals are now to be equated with murderers and rapists since these people MAY vote for them? If so does that mean that the 30(ish)% of Canadians who seem to support the Liberals are no better than criminals too? When you are stooping to this kind of pathetic mud slinging things must be VERY bad for the Tories.

  44. sorry John D, you are right. I’ll stop throwing bread crumbs.

  45. ok John D

    I agree with ya Johnny, but what troll are you talkin bou??

    I have not seen/heard from Mr. Wells since he embarrassed himself a couple days ago on this blog.

  46. Kady: If the Conservatives continue the decline, here’s a suggestion for the headline:

    “The Unbearable Nanosity of Being… Stephen Harper.”

  47. Are you saying it’s Liberals cutting their own brake lines and carving up their paint jobs? Why those dastardly liberal criminal sympathizers, trying to increase their own ranks. I guess that would also suggest that people in hospitals tend to skew liberal, too, right Bob?
    But then again, more of you hold the guns…

  48. John G, there’s more than one seat in Brampton.

  49. Excellent articke in the Post by Kelly

    The sudden unravelling of the polls is throwing off all the calculations that seemed relatively safe as recently as a week ago.

    The most recent Ekos poll, out on Wednesday, shows the Tories back up to 35% support, 11 points ahead of the Liberals, who are barely holding their own against the NDP. This after days of erosion in Conservative numbers.

    Harris/Decima shows the Conservatives at 31%, the lowest of any pollster, four points up on the Liberals, who are seven points ahead of the NDP. Nanos has the Liberals just four points behind the Tories, and nine ahead of Jack Layton’s wild and crazy socialists.

    I have no idea where this is going, but here are a few scenarios, which could all be redundant by this time tomorrow:

    Chances of a Conservative majority:
    I’d say they’re Long Gone Johnny. The only possibility is if Canadians realize their fears of a domestic meltdown are overblown and back away from the Liberals, worrying that the edge of a recession is not the time to experiment with Mr. Dion’s Green Shift carbon tax proposal. If the rebound is as overdone as the fall, the Conservatives might bounce back to 37%-38%. But I’d say Sarah Palin has a better chance for the Nobel prize for literature.

    Chances of a Conservative minority:
    The most likely scenario at the moment, though the size of the margin is still an issue. If it’s much bigger than before, Mr. Dion will be history and the Liberals could spend the next two years picking a new leader and letting him/her rebuild the party the way it should have been after the last election. That could give Mr. Harper an extended period or relative calm to implement the Hidden Agenda. If it’s a reduced minority, Mr. Dion will still likely be toast but the next leader might feel a little bolder about testing the waters with yet another election.

    Chances of a Liberal minority:
    It’s not impossible. Unless there’s a cataclysmic swing in voter intentions, though, it will be sliver-thin and highly unstable. Mr. Dion would need regular support from Jack Layton, who would likely demand a hefty price. How many Liberal MPs would be comfortable sharing their government with Jack, who hates the Green Shift and wants to revoke corporate tax cuts? And how deep would Prime Minister Dion’s support run within his own caucus, many of whom can’t wait to get rid of him? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

    Chances of the Green Shift becoming law:
    About the same as the chances of a Liberal majority. Because unless Mr. Dion gets a majority he would need support from the opposition parties, and it’s hard to see either the Conservatives or NDP going along with it. Which would leave us with a Liberal government elected largely on a single plank, but unable to implement that plank.

    Chances of Mr. Harper resigning:
    It seems to be taken for granted that the Prime Minister would stalk away in a huff, leaving his blue sweater behind, if he loses the election. I’m not convinced. Faced with an unstable Liberal minority, Mr. Harper would have every chance of an early rematch with Mr. Dion, which he might relish. Meanwhile he could spend a few relaxed months in the House making life miserable for the Liberal leader, a prospect Mr. Harper could find entirely enjoyable.

    Chances of yet another election, way too soon:
    Who knows? But I wouldn’t throw away the lawn signs.

    National Post

  50. Whew! I missed the opening line of Wayne’s post, and thought I was agreeing with HIM! Thank you, Wayne, for writing National Post at the bottom. I guess I am agreeing with you since you posted it as an excellent article, and I should have realized you didn’t write it since it had punctuation sprinkled throughout.

    Love ya, Wayne.

  51. ha ha Wayne gets owned by Jenn due to his primary school grammar skills! I love it

  52. John G – Sheila wasn’t specific – so I can’t answer your question – there are indeed 2 ridings that include Brampton…
    the interesting think is – Ruby – as far as I can categorize her – is a Martinite – so – if Sheila and / or Jean Cretien is campaigning for her – then that is just another sign – that despite Warren Kinsella’s singing la la la and sticking his fingers in his ears – the Liberal party is re-uniting under Dion.

  53. So I see Harper was right on the money when he said weeks ago that Ms May would -> This week in an interview with the Globe and Mail, Ms. May suggested there are some close ridings where Green supporters should cast their ballots for another party to stop the Conservatives.

    “I just think Canadians need to take a long hard look at the potential here to get rid of the government of Stephen Harper and all that it represents,” said Ms. May. “For the vast majority of ridings in this country, there aren’t tight races, and for the vast majority of ridings in this country, advice to vote strategically – suggesting one should somehow jump away from the Green Party – is very bad advice indeed. There are a handful of close races, and other third parties are analyzing that.”

    Oh what a tangled web we weave Lizzie

  54. Bob Ward if you are basing you decision on who to vote for on the assumed way that prisoners vote then I wonder if you are smart enough to know how to mark a ballot.

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