There’s the Bloc, and then there’s everyone else

Léger Marketing released the results of its latest poll into the political leanings of Quebecers yesterday. Here’s where the federal parties stand (the numbers in parentheses represent the change since Nov. 27):

Bloc: 40% (+3)

Liberals: 23% (+3)

Conservatives: 17% (-3)

NDP: 15% (-2)

Whatever it is that’s ailing the Conservatives elsewhere (prorogation? Afghanistan? widespread grumpiness?) appears to be hurting them in Quebec as well, with their votes fleeing to the usual places—to Mononc’ Gilles and Professor Ignatieff. With no election on the horizon, it may not mean much. But the Liberals, Tories and NDP have to be hoping one of them can definitively pull ahead as the mainstay federalist option in the province to avoid splitting the vote and handing 55 seats over to the Bloc.

One of the things I like about Léger’s polls is the regional breakdown. Of course, the usual disclaimers about very small sample sizes apply, but here’s where everyone stands in Montreal/Quebec City/the rest of Quebec (i.e., les régions):

Bloc: 36 / 30 / 48 (-2 / +4 / +10)

Liberals: 27 / 14 / 20 (+4 / +2 / –)

Conservatives: 12 / 30 / 18 (-3 / -8 / -2)

NDP: 18 / 20 / 10 (+2 / +1 / -8)

A few things stand out:

-The NDP is considerably more popular than the Liberals in Quebec City. Huh.

-The Conservatives appear to have lost some ground everywhere, but are likely most worried about losing a good chunk of their base in and around Quebec City. They’re simply not competitive enough in Montreal to be able to afford that kind of collapse.

-The Liberals remain a force in Montreal. Of course, given the linguistic divide in the city, it’s hard to imagine this not being the case. But it’s still noteworthy.

-Whatever support bled out from the Bloc to the Tories and the NDP, especially in the rural areas, appears to have gone back to Duceppe and the gang.




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There’s the Bloc, and then there’s everyone else

  1. If Bloc supporters really wanted to harm Canada, they'd switch their support to Harper en masse when he pulls stunts like pro-roguing.

    • Fortunately for Canada, the Bloc's goal isn't to harm Canada.

      • the Bloc is not a separatist party, it is a federalist party run by separatists. Its members have a vested interest in keeping Quebec in Canada, wouldn't you want to keep your inflation indexed federal pension for life that most of its MPs have earned ?

        the paradox is that the Bloc garners just over a third of votes in Quebec yet manages to sell itself as the guardian
        of Quebec “values“, no other federal party has been anywhere near as successful as the Bloc in leveraging relatively small numbers of ballots into large numbers of seats.

        • The Bloc is disproportionately rewarded by our first-past-the-post electoral system. With proportional representation, the actual will of Quebecers would be reflected in election results.

  2. Heh,

    NDP drop two points and the talk is of their "popularity".

    CPC drop three points and the talk is of their "collapse".

    • take another look at the regional breakdown and half of your beef will be explained biff:
      - A big drop 'dans les régions' is no big for the NDP – they're never going to win seats there anyway, and all it might cost is a reduction in the per-vote subsidy;
      - But, gaining support in MTL, where they precariously hold one riding, and have been competitive in others, matters a great deal in the party (and particularly Jack Layton)'s future prospects.

    • Quite frankly, I had just never imagined the NDP could maintain any popularity in Quebec City. It wasn't a hopeful or dreadful observation; I was just surprised.

  3. The BLOC may not be thought of as a party in Canada`s best interests, however they were not the ones that sold us out.

    Canadian Political Leaders taking us down the garden path

    Back in the late 1980`s Canada began accepting tax revenues that were not theirs to receive.

    It was actually a simple task, with Canadian organizations searching for contract positions for work in the US. These Canadian organizations however created tax records for the thousands that were hired, to indicate that work positions were in Canada. Following thru that illegality all funds were to be paid to the Canadian Revenue department.

    With Canada now receiving over a Billion dollars in illegal revenues, it seemed that we were the beneficiary of funds not rightfully ours, BUT:

    What if the other country was aware of these funds? Do you not believe that this other country would expect to have services provided for this compensation?

    Canadians citizens must know the truth. They are really the ones to decide which path to go down, and whose footsteps to follow.

  4. Why doesn't BLOC run candidates all around Canada? I am pretty sure BLOC would form a majority government and we would finally get rid of Quebec.

    • That's so ridiculous it would make a cat laugh!

  5. Not so. I have never been able to figure out why the BLOC can be involved in federal politics when they don't exist outside of Quebec. Perhaps if we all could vote for or against them, we could either get rid of the BLOC or get rid of Quebec.
    But then, the Reform party (now the government) started in the West … and are now kissing the ass of the US of A.
    Bring on the Greens!

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