Tories and NDP neck and neck on election eve - Macleans.ca
 

Tories and NDP neck and neck on election eve

Either party could form a minority on election day: poll


 

A new poll conducted by Forum Research shows the Tories and NDP in a virtual dead heat, with the possibility of either party forming a minority government, the Hill Times reports. Poll results suggest that if the Conservative party is unable to form a majority government, the NDP and the Liberals could form a sustainable coalition without the support of the Bloc Québécois, or find another arrangement that could undermine a minority Conservative government should Harper lose another confidence motion. The survey, conducted on Sunday, shows the Conservatives at 35 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, with the NDP at 33 per cent, and the Liberals at a 19 per cent. Seat projections based on the poll results have the Conservatives at approximately 147 seats, only four more than the number the Tories won in the 2008 election. “Voting realignment like this comes only once in a generation,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.

The Hill Times


 
Filed under:

Tories and NDP neck and neck on election eve

  1. You may want to correct the sub-title.

    • Much better.

      • What did it used to be?

        • had "majority" instead of "minority"

  2. Incredible!

  3. If the poll projects 147 seats for the Tories, and we assume the Bloc gets at least 15 to 20 seats, could the Libs and NDP really form a “sustainable coalition without the support of the Bloc”?

    • Who says the Bloc will get 10-15 seats, though? Quebecois have a strong record of voting for the party they think will best represent their interests and priorities in Parliament, and with the surety of the Bloc being significantly weakened, it may no longer be able to do that effectively. In which case the only people voting for it will be die-hard separatists, who have been looking increasing anachronistic for the last decade.

      Also, a "sustainable coalition" would be a government with more seats than the Conservatives – so if the Conservatives got 147, the NDP + Liberals got 148 seats, and the Bloc got 13 seats, that would be an (albeit very tenuous) sustainable coalition. Not that I expect any such thing to happen – I'll be happy if we can only avoid a Harper majority, and shocked if the NDP get over 100 seats.

      • Also, the 147 seats for the Conservatives seems highly doubtful if they only get 35% and 2% better than the NDP. This seems to be based on uniform swing, so it is heavily benefiting the Conservatives at the expense of the NDP.

  4. I predict there will be a lot of sad socialists come Tuesday morning.

    • considering the numbers are what they are now (and I too take poll numbers with a heap of salt), upon what factors are you forming your opinion?

      • On my belief that the Conservatives will be forming a majority government. Unless that prospect makes socialists happy.

        • The anarchists might find that a step in the right direction, since before you can make things better, things must get worse.

    • The NDP is social democratic, not socialist. That said, why would New Democrats be sad? Even in a worst-case scenario, we're likely to do better than we ever have before.

      I'll certainly be unhappy if Harper wins a majority, but I've known throughout this campaign that it was a possibility.

      • Well, their platform sure sounds socialist.

        They'd do very well in Greece, Spain, Portugal, or any other number of bankrupted European states.

        • Socialism is generally used to describe support for government ownership of industry, which the NDP does not support. Support for a regulated free market, and strong government support for education, health care and social programs, funded by progressive tax rates, is better described as social democracy.

      • Hey Katherine, if the NDP is not socialist, then why is the NDP a proud member of Socialist International? I would be fascinated to hear your explanation.

        • When we say that NDP is not "socialist" we're just responding to the stereotyped idea that most Canadians (including, evidently, Turd) have in mind when they use that word.

          The NDP's policies are social democratic and are similar to the policies of many northern European social democratic parties. The NDP would be considered quite conventional in countries like Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway etc.

          Recently people seem to love to cite Greece as a way to malign the NDP. First of all, how come you never point to Norway (which has oil and other natural resources just like Canada) or Germany? Those countries are doing very well, and even when governed by Conservative parties they have still maintained the kind of social and environmental policies that the NDP wants to bring to Canada.

          Secondly, if you're so interested in the problems of Greece, then consider that a major factor that crippled the Greek economy was the state's long-standing failure to collect tax revenues from so many of its wealthier tax-evading citizens.

          I think, Turk, that you only mention countries of southern Europe because they are "recently bankrupted" and perhaps you harbour some stereotypes of southern Europeans as well (otherwise, why pick on just them?) Greece, Spain, and Portugal do have in common a relatively recent history of dictatorship and civil war. Again, if you want to make analogies to Europe, from Canada, it is more sensible to look to northern Europe.

          And on that southern European kick, you fail to mention Italy. Not doing much better, there, despite years and years and years of right-wing governments (with a very brief centre-left interlude). The best governed part of Italy is the municipality of Bologna which until recently was governed by… wait for it… the Communist Party of Italy. The municipal government has changed, but for a very long time, that was the best city in Italy in terms of quality of life and responsible government (including fiscally responsible, by Italian standards at least). The Communist Party got a lot of its support from… guess who? Small business owners. It was friendly to small business.

          So it is not such a simple world after all in which you can so easily peg parties or movements as "socialist" this or "commie" that and then think you know what they are and dismiss them. Please try to approach these topics with a more open mind.

          • Aces.

    • Compas is predicting a Tory majority…people might 'like' Jack, but that's a whole lot different from wanting him to run the country.

      • And people might 'hate' Harper, but . . . actually, that's not the same as wanting him to run the country, either.

        • Well, I 'hate' Jack 'Tug' Layton…and I don't want him to run anything let alone the country.

      • You should read the fine-print of the COMPAS prediction. Specifically, examine the sample size.

        They are the upper bound; an outlier, if you will.

        • That COMPAS poll looks just whacked. It seems they've massaged (sorry, couldn't resist) the numbers in a certain way to try to account for predicted voter turnout. Which is a mug's game at best.

          • It definitely looked odd, and not simply because I disagree with the result. I prefer to think of it as a probable outcome if all of chet's prognostications turn out to be true: if young voters don't turn out, if advance polling skews the result, if nano's 2008 error percentage holds for 2011 (I'm kidding), etc etc. Definitely a best case scenario for the CPC.

            But they also put the NDP possible spread at 27-36%; that's quite a range as well. I think it provides useful information, but others have the spread much closer.

    • i predict your right. lol.

  5. .
    The new WikiLeaks cables on Harper and Ignatieff are strkingly more useful than the polls; and wincingly accurate assesments.

    Harper as control freak that nobody, even in his own party, really understands.
    Ignatieff as an aimless bumbler, interested in no advice other than his wife's.

    Layton: leader of a 'mouse of a party'; among the lions. (But moving up from former marginalization.

    Ha!
    Roar Jack!
    .

    • It's always fun having our little dithering dramas put into perspective by other countries.

    • They are actually new releases of old cables … and read as though they could have been
      written from your standard news clipping service.

  6. This is music to my ears …GO JACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!__

    • A candidate.

    • The best candidate in my riding. Only fools vote for parties, because we can only control whether the candidate gets fired, not the party.

  7. To quote Halo Override:

    3a. Commentors who reach 100 posts will float up toward the ceiling and explode, which will be considered a great honor and the natural culmination of their life as citizens.

    Now seems like a good time.

    To the white hats: best of luck in the election
    To the black hats: don't let the door hit you on the way out

    Black and white; it sounds like a wedge issue – and life has too many shades of gray to make it that simple

    Cheers to all,

    BOOM!

    • Nooooooooo! I'll miss your comments and great sense of humour, Danby.

    • Hey, I just dinged a day or two ago as well, congratulations!

      Old-timey men with hats in the hizzouse!

      (Boom.)

        • Aw, I'm sad now, he actually left. His name was still on his post when I replied. I feel bad about setting out that landmine. (Even though I'm secretly gratified at being quoted form so long ago…)

          Danby, ye shall be missed.

          Myself, I'll be sticking around.

  8. Ekos – Cons 35 and NDP 31
    Forum – Cons 35 and NDP 33
    Harris/Decima – Cons 36 and NDP 31
    Nanos – Cons 37 and NDP 31
    Compas – Cons 46 and NDP 26

    Which one looks like the outlier? – even at the outermost reaches of their margin of error, COmpas and Nanos (the two closest) cannot be reconciled.

    Ekos is in the field today and will offer an update at 10PM, but only Compas is predicting even the possibility of a Conservative majority.

    • Forgot one!

      Angus Reid – Cons 37 and NDP 33

  9. Compas and Ekos look like the outliers. All the other polls are somewhere between the two. Compass in particular looks whacked. Nanos was the most accurate by far in both 2004 and 2006 (not sure how they did in 2008).

    • Just saw the Angus Reid (internet poll) with a massive 3200 sample shows 36/33. They try and weight it, but internet polling is still in its infancy.

      • outliers because that is what you are fervently praying for loser,

        • Check out the sample sizes, DPT. Compas is on their own, and it's almost certainly a result of their small sample size.

        • So you believe the COMPAS poll that puts the Tories at well over 40%? You're free to believe what you like, but I'm calling it an outlier. Ditto for Ekos, which comes in below the others. By the way, I fervently pray for nothing, save that you might someday discover literacy, grammar and punctuation. Loser.

    • Looks more like Compas and Forum are the outliers – Compas quite clearly, but Forum has the NDP a couple points higher and the race slightly tighter than the others.
      Still wondering about the ability to get out the vote. I suspect it may cost the NDP a point or two, and add one or two for the Tories, but not enough for a majority.
      The other strange thing – Forum has it 35-33, but has the Conservatives winning four more seats. I understand the splitting, but I don't see that.

  10. Velvet Touch – A Community Clinic – Who Knew????
    Olivia Chow was quick to release a written statement, that husband Jack Layton indeed did attend a "registered massage clinic" and she was well aware of it and he "needed a massage" late in the evening.
    Jack Layton, later at a rally in Burnaby, was quick to point out and clarify Olivia's comment, that in fact it was a "community clinic" (Velvet Touch -good name) where he obtained his services. In trying to protect his political career, and in tune with the NDP philosophy, he felt it very important to stress it was a "community clinic" not to be confused with a private clinic. It was essential in the middle of this election, to inform Canadians, in order to solicit their support, he wouldn't be caught dead at a private clinic, a for profit health care facility, where illegal, underage, Asian sex workers, would be employed by rip off artists, in the Canadian health care field – it would have to be a community clinic he patronizes – there should be no confusion. The reason that it was late at night that he was there, we would also assume was that he didn't jump the queue, but waited his turn. A good leader leads by example.
    I wonder if Canadians becoming more aware of the fine details of the NDP health care platform and of Layton's expansion of health care services to include these "community clinics", help explain the surge in support for the NDP in this current election. Does anybody in the main street media have a better explanation for the NDP surge and why are they reluctant to discuss this NDP expansion of Canada's health services?
    Why and how could the Toronto city police confuse a community clinic with a bawdy house?

    • You are a sad little person.

  11. I know I have caused some discomfort on this site with my statements since the election. I have also made people think about the controlling billionares that are trying to steal our country and control our wealth. I must say this; Our country is at a crossroads right now and our vote has never meant as much as it means today. We must rid ourselves of the Harper dictatorship once and for all and tomorrow we can do that as a united country. The Conservative party of today is not the conservative party of our fathers and grandfathers and it is Harper that is responsivble for that. He must go because we are Canadian and not american and we resent being treated as such. We are not Fox news north nor will we ever be. We live in a country with hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of natural resources and they belong to us, Canadians. Our economy will not suffer under an alternative government other that of the controlling tories. Vote to save Canada on May 2. Vote ABC. God bless Canada!!!

    • You've just totally won me over. Yes, that was sarcasm. You've done nothing but push conspiracy theories from the opening whistle. That makes any "impassioned plea for your country" laughable.

      • Thank you for your reply even though it is sarcasm. It means that I have been able to grab your attention and warrent your responce to my posts. I believe you truly love Canada and that you are speaking from your heart. I also believe you are wrong and that is my right as a Canadian to believe that. It is what makes Canada , Canada! However, our country must be saved from your tyrant leader and you too must be rid of his controlling ideology. On May 2nd vote for Canada, vote ABC.
        Much Love,
        Proud Canadian

  12. Sounds great to me! At least we are assured no Conservative Majority; that is what counts this time around.

    These are scary times however; the Conservatives have the organization and contacts to turn out the vote. This is usually in the form of Employers after their their few points of tax break telling their staff to they have to vote today and vote Conservative or face some dire strate, usually invented.

    The NDs on the other hand don't have the high paid organization. Only one day to wait and as I have said before, momentum being what it is——-

    • It's all about voter turnout, like it always is. Except this time I think turnout will be high.

    • Employers coerce their employees into voting Conservative? I've never heard of such a thing. I have definitely heard of unions brow-beating their members to vote against the Conservatives. Several of my past unions have implored me to do just that. That is legal for unions to do, but illegal for employers.

      • Merci again.

      • Is it illegal for employers to campaign for a candidate? I know of several employers who sent out emails instructing folks how to vote.

  13. Ekos was still out in the field this afternoon and is going to update any minute. I doubt there will be a huge shift, but it's excellent that they're running it to the wire.

    EDIT: at 10:35 Graves said we could expect his last summary "momentarily".

  14. Ekos has NDP'ers with a higher certainty of voting (88%) than Tories (85%), although a lower likelihood of changing their mind (NDP: 66% vs. CPC: 77%). This does not look good for team Harper.

    • Thank you for your reply even though it is sarcasm. It means that I have been able to grab your attention and warrent your responce to my posts. I believe you truly love Canada and that you are speaking from your heart. I also believe you are wrong and that is my right as a Canadian to believe that. It is what makes Canada , Canada! However, our country must be saved from your tyrant leader and you too must be rid of his controlling ideology. On May 2nd vote for Canada, vote ABC.
      Much Love,
      Proud Canadia

      • Huh?

  15. http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/our

    [OTTAWA – May 1, 2011] As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgement, a few final comments are in order. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls it now appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has now become a point of consensus. The final estimates of party support including today's final sample are 33.9 points for the Conservatives, 31.2 for the NDP, 21.0 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 6.0 for the Green Party.

    When we adjust this based on an index which predicts the most likely to vote we arrive at 34.0 points for the Conservatives, 31.6 for the NDP, 20.8 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 5.9 for the Green Party.

    As shocking as those numbers would have seemed just a few weeks ago, they are now more or less stable and undoubtedly accurate. The only real question remaining, and frankly this is more a matter of anecdotal curiosity at this stage, is how these translate into the new seat distribution in Canada's next parliament. Recognising the vagaries of sampling error, vote splitting and other factors, we are going to provide an estimate at the national level which is couched around a somewhat arbitrary band of uncertainty.

    After the ballots are counted tomorrow, we expect to see the following:
    1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats
    2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats
    3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats
    4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats
    5) GP: 1 seat
    http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/fi

    • Given the lopsided surplus support that the Tories enjoy in the Prairies would this mean that in the ROC the NDP actually have more support then the Cons? Considering that's where more seats are located could that mean that we'll be looking at a flat out NDP minority Gov't tommorow?

      • The Tory support is lopsided between urban and rural support, not necessarily prairie and non-prairie. It's just that more rural areas are in the prairies.

        Since the NDP isn't really taking away rural support, and rural votes generally count for more than urban votes given our seat distribution, I doubt the NDP will take too much from the CPC. However, it all depends on how many people get out to vote.

  16. One thing that will be interesting to see is going to be the impact of advanced polling. About 1 in 5 people already voted, and did so back when the Orange surge was only embryonic in English Canada. How do polls reflect this? How do people that have already voted respond to polls?

    Nanos' most recent poll has the race as:
    CPC: 38
    NDP: 31
    LPC: 21

    As a thought experiment, how different would that look if 20% of voters had the profile of the Nanos poll on April 22nd?
    CPC: 37.8
    NDP: 30
    LPC: 21.6

    The impact on the Tory-NDP margin could be something like 1%, which is not chump change (we focus too much on numbers, and too little on margins when we discuss who is going to win a majority, etc.).

  17. I wonder if Prime Minister Layton will remember his commitment to proportional representation after his party starts to benefit from our screwed up voting system.

    • If I were taking odds I'd guess that PR won't happen. The Bloc and Tories will oppose it for sure. At least some NDP MP's would be jeopardizing their jobs by implementing PR. Also, the Liberals may still harbour ambitions of being Canada's natural governing party once again.

    • I think the NDP would move quickly to get legislation for proportional representation passed through the house, but it is important to remember they will not have a majority gov't and will require the cooperation of the other parties in the house.

  18. Merci

  19. I just have to mention. With all this talk about Harper, Layton, and Ignatieff, does anyone really stop and think about who they are electing locally? While Jack has charisma, and is very personable, I wish people would take a hard look at the folks he has running for the NDP in certain areas. He has got quite a few loons. Do we really want certifiable people in positions of power?

    • We have survived these past 5 years.

  20. Between Stephen, Dmitri Soudas, Guy Giorno and others of the infamous PMO pressure-pushers, I think we already have some … (certifiable people in positions of power, that is …)

  21. Scary that so many Canadians seem to be supporting a radical socialist party…

    • "radical socialist"? I don't think you understand what either of those two words mean. No matter how one feels about the relative merit of their policies, objectively, there is very little "to the roots" about the NDP's platform, particularly when it comes to the ownership and command of the means of production, which is the core of socialism.

    • Theyr'e all socialist parties, f4hq. I've been waiting for a conservative party to show up for the past five years.

  22. A few loons? I would say that is not a bad average. Where would you place Stockwell Day -on the sidelines now, in your loony meter?

  23. lol

  24. My 19 times out ot 20 prediction:

    Green 0
    CPC 144
    LPC 64
    NDP 70
    BQ 30

    My dark-horse (the 1 time out of 20) prediction:

    Green 1
    CPC 133
    LPC 70
    NDP 84
    BQ 20

  25. Me bastard!