Tories build up double-digit lead -

Tories build up double-digit lead

New poll suggests a snap election would return nearly identical Parliament


The federal Conservatives have built up a 10-point lead over their Liberal party challengers thanks in part to a 3-point jump in the last month alone. The latest survey by Ipsos Reid Public Affairs has the Conservatives in a comfortable lead at 37 per cent to the Liberals’ 27 per cent. While the Liberals lost one point since March, the NDP dropped three to land at 15 per cent support. The Greens and the Bloc were tied for fourth at 10 per cent. The results are largely identical to those of the last election, says Ipsos president and CEO Darrell Bricker, “and we already know the results of that.”

Montreal Gazette

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Tories build up double-digit lead

  1. As noted in another thread, has this been replicated over the same time period, and more importantly, what will the numbers be after this whole Guergis news cycle?

    • Guergis won't make an impact. Every party has it's unwholesome members. It's not as if the Liberals can claim the high road.

    • Yeh you libs always have an excuse for your disaster of a leader Iggy! You keep telling your self that till then next election then it'll be "must have been vote fraud".

      • and what do you tell yourself each time Harper doesn't get a majority? Don't worry, I know it'll be fun in years from now when I can gloat to you that the Libs have again won govt and you can simultaneously gloat to me that it's only a minority. No party will be in majority territory for another generation.

  2. I guess the last election wasn't all Stephane Dion's fault after all.

    • Don't interrupt the excuses!
      Blame CTV, meanie Harpo, and nasty TV ads.

      The loss of Catholic votes, visible minorities continue to affect the Liberals.

      • I was lead to believe that the entire Canadian media are simply pawns to be used as the Liberals see fit. What's this about CTV?

  3. Imagine, the sweaty masses of the Canadian electorate weren't mesmerized by the Liberal's "Thinkers Convention"!

    Canadians continue to grow weary of the games that are being played with their futures by both Parties. It's time the leaders made an honest effort to understand what Canadians really want and need.

    • Are you suggesting the NDP and Bloc are doing a great job?

      • Not in the least. The chance that either Party will ever be official opposition is next to nil so I pretty much ignore them. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

    • Canadians continue to grow weary of the games that are being played with their futures by both Parties. It's time the leaders made an honest effort to understand what Canadians really want and need.

      Which is…?

      I'm fairly certain that they know perfectly well what we want. That's what they have polls for.

  4. This poll was commissioned by Canwest News who would very much like the Harper Party to look good, so they hired Ipsos-Reid to prove it. They conveniently neglected to make public the details of the survey like the questions, demographics etc, which most reliable polls do. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Dimitri Soudas wrote the questions and gave the surveyors a list of folks to call. It is irresponsible to publish survey "results" in this manner.

    • Would you like to see Iffy force an election on your theory if you think it is right?The Liberal party and their supporters are in the worst shape of any political party in the last few years .I suspect when an election is called if Iffy is still the leader the NDP will end up as official opposition.After the big Thinkers conference I think they should replace the TH with an S

        • Let's go for Elizabeth May and the Greens as official opposition.

          Are you planning on holding an election and counting actual votes? Because if you are, I see a flaw with your suggestion.

          • Only if you use the first past the post system, which has worked well to keep the LPC and CPC exclusivity for the last hundred years.

            Come on proportional representation!

      • So your comment on the professionalism of the poll is?

        • I was surprised to see that there were only 7% undecided voters. I would have thought there was more. Unfortunately, Ipsos Reid won't let you access the actual questions and raw data so it is really hard to ascertain the professionalism of the poll.

    • I do not recall you insisting on an audit of the last poll results which indicated that the Libs & Tories were neck & neck. Could it be that you have a hard time accepting that Canadians have a very narrow focus when it comes to expectations of government – economy, economy, economy? For all the libs carrying on about proguing govt., Afghan detainies, bad behavior of Mp's etc., most Canadians are just really more concerned about the global recession and if we will get out of it with our a roof over our heads.

      • The last poll was commissioned by a news agency and survey company who together made the details of the survey public information, unlike this latest one. Certainly I realize that the Canadians who support the Harper government have a very narrow focus, usually on themselves, on that we can agree. The most vision they can come up with is that taxes should be low; for them. Everybody else can do without a roof over their head.

        • So everybody who votes tory is evil and selfish. Everyone who votes for another party is good and altruistic.

          Thanks for comin' out and dispensing these shining nuggets of insight.

        • So everybody who votes tory is evil and selfish. Everyone who votes for another party is good and altruistic.

          Thanks for comin' out and dispensing these shining nuggets of insight.

  5. Those are your words not mine. It's pretty clear you know your subject.

    • Yes, I know ridiculously simplistic, black-and-white thinking when I see it. Your post is a shining example of that.

      • Shining example of leftist stupidity that is!

  6. If I'm a Liberal, I'm getting a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach.

    Whenever Stephane Dion was in the media, Liberal numbers would decline.

    And so it is with the new leader Michael Ignatieff. The more Canadians are exposed to him, the more they are turned off by the Liberals as a political option.

  7. Doesn't look like the whole Jaffer/Guergis fiasco will change much of anything. Those who blame the "Evil Harper"….will continue to blame the "Evil Harper"…for everything. Most everyone else will just say good riddance to these two self absorbed nitwits and six months from now no one will remember who they were. Apart from the chattering classes at Starbucks pretending to be doing something important on their laptops, people for the most part have tuned this nonsense out. Iggie and Jack will stand in the Commons and feign moral outrage and everyone will hit the remote to find a play off game.

    • Kudos on your last sentence there. Perfectly put.

    • Hey, I'm a con and I go to Starbucks all the time with my Macbook Pro. And I do serious work there! You telling me I should be at Timmy's with a PC lap top!

      • does timmy's even have wireless? can one even lounge at tim horton's?

        • Yes you can but best to come in a pickup and ballcap. Laptop optional.

  8. This poll describes voter ignorance. Those who favour conseratives think spending is responsible when it isn’t. The other factor working for the CPC is the spending on advertising. Taken in by the messaging, ignorant of the fatal flaw of the conserative party -reckless spending – yet perceiving that the left would do worse – and you see the movement of votes from the far left to right and stability for the liberals. The pro-israel message is also reflected in this poll, moving NDP votes right.

    • This post describes Karen's ignorance of her fellow Canadians

    • You're funny.

      • KK's post, parsed: whenever poll results favour the Tories, it means the Canadian people are ignorant. Whenever poll results favour the Liberals or the NDP, it means the Canadian people are not ignorant.

        Sometimes I think the only reason I check this site out is for the high level of poli-sci analysis on offer.

        • Couldn't have said it better. Basically KK is saying if only those ignorant masses were as smart as I and could see the shady dealings of the "Evil Harper", shady characters in league with "Big Oil", right wing propagandists in charge of every newspaper in the country…bla…bla..bla

  9. It's one poll, but the remarkable thing is that the Cons are ahead, period.

    We just came thru the great recession,
    world leaders have taken a dive in their polls.
    but our government has the same pre-recession support,
    which is remarkable to say the least.

    Oh, and LibDippers following every media generated scandal,
    has made them look petty and frankly, insignificant.

  10. Remember when all you Liberals were saying:

    "just wait till the Liberals get a leader like Iggy. He'll cream Harper. Harper is doing well because Dion is a weak leader. Things will be different under Iggy's leadership".

    Well we are still waiting for the boy wonder to show up Harper.

    When are you Liberals going to admit Iggy is a disaster, and get rid of him!

    • When are you ConBots going to admit that Harper will NEVER give you a majority, and get rid of him! We could continue in this unproductive tit for tat all day and night…

  11. Back in 1993, the Liberal Party of Canada promised — as one of the key planks in its Red Book campaign platform — not that it would merely reduce the GST, but that it would eliminate it altogether. The Liberals subsequently won a smashing electoral victory, reducing the Tories to a mere two parliamentary seats.

    So I guess SunshineCoaster's inevitable conclusion from that must be that Liberal voters are the most narrowly focused and selfish of all . . .

  12. Good news.

  13. Good. The liberals are like the information tape used on Mission Impossible-destructing in five seconds. They are dead in the water in Quebec-the Bloc owns most of the province, due to the failure of Meech ( Trudeau). They are dead in the wast due to the national energy program limiting western profit to 85%-Trudeau. Most liberals are elderly, exhausted and either baron or close to it, due to a liberal life style-no fault divorce, abortion on demand-Trudeau.

  14. Same could be said of Harper.

    No matter what useless, incompetent Liberal leader he faces he still can't get a majority. No one wants Harper to really lead the country because they don't like him and don't trust him (with reason!). IF the Liberals got a real leader, Harper would be a soon forgotten blip on electoral history.

    • No one wants Harper to really lead the country because…

      Anyone care to quote the poll that shows ZERO percent of Canadians who believe that Mr. Harper would make the best Prime Minister from among available candidates? Barton, perhaps?

    • Well buddy it's taking an awfully long time for that white knight to show up. If absolutely no one wants him, why do people still vote for him and polls still show him more popular than anyone else? And this is during "tough times". When was the last time a PM was ahead in the polls during a recession? He should be taking a drubbing. The reason he can't get a majority is that with the federal reality being what it is, I don't think anyone can. There are five parties to vote for! When Cretian's majorities occurred he did it with numbers minisculely ahead of where Harper is now. Cretian's main accomplishment was to revive sepratism when it was dead as a doornail and set the tables for endless minority governments for a generation, Con or Liberal.

  15. "IF the Liberals got a real leader,…"

    Paul Martin 2004-2006 RIP

    Stephane Dion 2006-2008 RIP

    Michael Ignatieff 2008-201? RIP

    The Liberal leaders have been hapless, Barton, you're quite right. On the other hand, Harper continues to be underestimated. He's smart, and sure he makes mistakes, but because he's smart, he learns from them and doesn't make the same mistake twice.

  16. Yeah, that's all the Liberals need — the magic leader who comes in on a white steed and miraculously makes all their problems vanish. Just like that. No need for policies, strategies, and all that bunk, and no need whatsoever to address alleged weaknesses in benighted regions such as Virtually All of Canada West of Greater Toronto, or Most of Quebec . . .

    • Hey, I'm not saying it right but these days the leaders likeabilty seems to define who gets elected. Harper is not particularly liked, smart as he may be. Cretien, as someone pointed out earlier promised to eliminate the GST and renaged on his promise, did little really while in power, and won 3 huge majorities. People loved him for some reason.

      I too wish policy meant something, but it rarely does.

    • What exactly is the CPC platform? Is it a conservative platform, or a moderate one? Does it support 'traditional values'?

      Or, is it just watered down centrism, carefully crafted to keep the CPC in power?

  17. People (particularly wistful Liberals) look back at Chretien with slightly rose-coloured glasses these days. I agree that Chretien was a talented politician and a brilliant practitioner of the Black Arts of retail politics. He at least had a feel for how Joe or Jane Main Street thinks, despite his spending virtually his entire adult life in Ottawa.

    But I was actively involved in federal politics when Chretien was in power, and while Chretien was loved in some quarters, he was probably loathed in more. There is no way on earth that Chretien would have won those three majorities against a united right. No way. Even a rudimentary look at the numbers in '93, '96 and 2000 tells you that.

  18. Well let's see, what's been in the news regarding the CPC and the LPC in the last month:
    – afghan detainee issue
    – Guergis / Jaffer
    – abortion funding in foreign aid
    – the budget, painted as a wild exercise in conservative budget-tightening by our generally clueless media

    Of those I have trouble seeing how (1) and (2) reflect well on the CPC. That means it's due to (3) and/or (4).

    I'll let people draw their own conclusions.

  19. Michael Ignatieff, (with apologies to Julius Caesar):

    I came, I thought and I stunk out the joint.

  20. Whether or not the Guergis scandal will cause an impact the real question should be whether it has a long-term impact. Scandals of the day may drive ups and downs, but in the long run, the polls seem to settle somewhere around 2006-2008esque numbers for Harper.

  21. rational thinking and common sense: 1

    left leaning media overhyping every issue to get the dastardly CPC out, in a fashion that would make the Soviet propadanists blush: 0

  22. So, 37% of the people that bother to vote- hmmm, lets see…
    thats about , what 15% of the country. About the same percentage that belive Elvis is alive, fairies exist, angels watch over us, humans walked with dinosaurs, gays are evil, women belong in the kitchen and pregnant, family planning is not on, Afghanistan is a just cause and winnable….oh- wait a minute… I just described Harper, his gang and those dumb enough to vote for them.

    These anal retentive goofs are beginning to smell.

    • You neglected to mention that Tories and their supporters drink the blood of children that they have sacrificed in secret satanic rituals.

      I suspect you're a conbot troll for overlooking that obvious point.

  23. Ah yes Bill, the "Evil Harper" is responsible for everything wrong in the world, at least as you see it. Never mind it was the Liberals who committed our troops to Afghanistan in the first place, Chretien single handedly revived sepratism from the dead in Quebec and set the tables for endless minority governments. I could go on but don't bother to let facts get in the way of your knee jerk rant about the afore mentioned "Evil Harper". Cheers.

    • To be fair, a number of Canadians actually do believe the things that he mentioned. And, fair number of them would vote either CPC or CHP. Certainly it is a little over the top to lump all CPC supporters in that camp, and they don't add up to 37% (polls don't usually only take your opinion if you vote), but the people he is talking about are a part of the CPC base.

      It would actually be incredibly interesting to see a poll to see how much of the dino-deniers are actually part of each party. Not to mention just how many of those people actually exist in Canada. Someone do a poll.

  24. This poll was taken before the Jaffer story hit the Toronto Star, and before Harper booted Guergis out of Cabinet and party caucus and before potental influence allegations were made public.

    Just who do these pollsters poll? Only Conservatives?
    If you contact 1,000 people knowing that 90% are conservative voters you are likely to get favourable results.

    • Translation: if a poll shows the Tories in the lead, there must be something wrong with the poll.

      By that logic, I guess you must think there was massive voter fraud during our last federal election.

  25. I think the general public is tired of the scandal a day from the opposition and the fact the main stream media is running around like the house is on fire. What do we have? An Afghan detainee affair (a five year old story that has been discussed before and probably implicates the Liberals); Abortion funding within a UN Millenium project (who cares as long as aid gets to people), Khadr and Abdelrazik both stranded by a previous Liberal government, Helena Guergis and her private citizen husband who may or may not have done something wrong and who have every right to sue if this turns out to be a tempest in a teapot. Last but not least is the Kairos and Rights and Democracy fiasco. The Globe and Mail itself published a column critical of the way aid is handled in the Congo –… meanwhile bashing away at any critics of Kairos and Rights and Democracy. Must be nice to have a split personality. The trouble is, most of the outrage these "scandals" have caused are only within the Liberal/NDP circle and the main stream media. The general public doesn't see anything that outrageous. I suspect that the general public is tired of the constant panic. They've just gone through a bad recession that very nearly brought the economy to a halt. All the finger pointing going on in the House right now seems very insignificant.

  26. To Bill
    "So, 37% of the people that bother to vote- hmmm, lets see…
    thats about , what 15% of the country. About the same percentage that belive Elvis is alive, fairies exist, angels watch over us, humans walked with dinosaurs, gays are evil, women belong in the kitchen and pregnant, family planning is not on, Afghanistan is a just cause and winnable….oh- wait a minute… I just described Harper, his gang and those dumb enough to vote for them.

    These anal retentive goofs are beginning to smell. "

    Apparently the "stench" has pickled your pee-brain considering Chretien won a MAJORITY with something like 38% of the vote. I agree, you anal retentive goofs are beginning to smell.

    Winning a majority with 38% of the vote is a joke but only one that a Liberal would appreciate.

    • I'm sure Mr. Harper would love to win a majority with 38% of the vote. I bet he would wholeheartedly appreciate it.

  27. Personally I'd rather the government adopt a pro-Israel stance than a pro-Hamas/Hezbollah stance. Just my personal preference to see democracy thrive as opposed to suicide bombers.