Tories surge in Ontario

Spring election more likely


A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted early this month has Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 42 per cent in Ontario——up six points since the firm’s poll in January. That puts the Tories far ahead of the Liberals in the largest province, whose suburban ridings could be where Harper seeks to secure his elusive majority. Michael Ignatieff’s party stood at 32 per cent for the Liberals, down eight points from a month earlier. At 15 per cent in Ontario, the NDP’s support was unchanged, while the Green party’s 11 per cent was up three points. Nationally, the poll, conducted from Feb. 8-10, found the Conservatives supported by 39 per cent of decided voters, up by five points, as Liberals suffered a four-point drop to a dismal 25 per cent. The poll comes as speculation grows that the Harper minority could fall on a vote after the budget Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is expected to table early next month. The Liberals have vowed not to vote for the budget is it continues a planned track of corporate tax cuts. That leaves open, however, the possibility of Jack Layton’s NDP voting for it to extend the life of the Tory minority.

Ottawa Citizen

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Tories surge in Ontario

  1. You simply have to stand back and applaud the sheer ability of Harper to drive frustrated left wing nuts to new levels of insanity – if one were to judge by web forum postings Harper hating would be the most popular of canadian past times – BUT – what do we have except a Liberal leader who is turning out to be Harpers best friend forever – you gotta love it – speaking as a dyed in the wool Conservative and huge fan of my boy Stevie I can't remember the last time I have had so much fun like I have the last 5 years. It truly is an amazing thing to behold to watch the left run around in existential misery and proceeding to new levels of inanity.

    • Am with you 200% psiclone!

      • You voted twice!?

    • Very true – you have to wonder though, is it that Harper does anything special beyond winning or is it simply that the lefties go apoplectic like a 2 yo child when they dont get their way?

      Whenever a successful conservative politician emerges, he is portrayed as the devil incarnate by the left. It's pretty funny. Reagan (today praised by lefties), Thatcher, George W. Bush, Sarah Palin, Stephen Harper – they all drive the lefties into a tizzy of rage and hatred which is unmatched outside of a Hezbollah rally.

      Im enjoying it.

      • And Obama is just loved by cons…or Clinton or Carter or Kennedy or Chretien or Trudeau. Quit pretending the left has a lock on political hatred – it's a game that everyone plays – unfortunately.

        • I dont pretend that. I dont think that the level of hysterical childish hatred on the left is comparable to that on the right, but there are certainly those on the right, the birth-certificate nutters being a prime example, who can play that game.

          Still, the Tea Party is a movement that came about because of high taxes, government bailouts and opposition to Obamacare – all valid policy positions. Yet this crowd gets compared to nazi racists.

          On the left, you have mainstream commentators calling for the death of the president (Bush), or cheering on Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and even the Taliban, routinely comparing Bush to Hitler, calling for the death of allied soldiers…

          And it's only now that you hear hypocritical turds like John Stewart and Oprah calling for "civility"….

          • " I dont think that the level of hysterical childish hatred on the left is comparable to that on the right"

            Well, there's an awful lot of folks around who don't share your conviction.

            Mainstream commentators…calling for the death of allied soldiers – you jest sir. By the by, the lady [who's name escapes me] who you liked to last time we had this sort of conversation turns out to have an agenda all of her own. There are plenty of kooks on the right side.

            The tea Party may well have started out as a legit protest movement. Now, however it looks like it ;s been hijacked by the Koch brothers. And turning up at a political rally with a sign saying we left our guns at home, this time, is not in my books reasonable protest.

          • Well, there's an awful lot of folks around who don't share your conviction.

            Im well aware of that.

            Mainstream commentators…calling for the death of allied soldiers – you jest sir

            Michael Moore did so. You may try to throw him under the bus now, but he was front and center at the 2004 Democratic convention. Michael Moore is just as mainstream as Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck.

            Who's this lady you speak of? If her name escapes you, give me a hint. Anyhow, Im also well aware of the kooks on the right.

          • …Michelle Malkin.

            Moore has been a great disappointment to me anyway. He's a great film maker – not so good with the truth. I've never really trusted him since finding out he was not up front when making Roger and me – doubly so since it was a very good film. Not everyone takes his word as gospel – i certainly don't.

          • yes Malkin – she definitely has her own agenda.

            Michael Moore has been a disappointment to any rational person – and he is a great film maker – I find myself mildly entertained yet outraged at his dishonesty – a difficult feat.

          • Do you listen at all to the US media? The right in Canada is relatively civil, but those in the States – particularly among the "religious right" – foam at the mouth like rabid dogs about anything and everything. Especially the commentators.

  2. Although I am beginning to think that Harper is much like Ali at his best as far as being a political counter-puncher and this requires a good match to bring out his best – right now I don't see much of that – Iggy is toast folks and this is become patently obvious to anyone with an open mind – the real conflict developing here is going to be between Jack and Iggy and their repsective supporters inside their own parties – Jack is solid with the NDP so that leaves Iggy – it would NOT surprise me to hear something along the line of .. health reasons or needing more family time or maybe even an academic hiatus broadcast from the LPT occur in the next while with repsect to Iggy standing down as the party would not survive another Dion as Iggy is turning out to be just as bad if not worse – so sad so bad !

    • I am beginning to see him as the kid who poops in the sandbox so that all the other kids leave and he can play in the mess by himself.

  3. In a related story in this same magazine:

    "There's broad consensus among pollsters that proliferating political polls suffer from a combination of methodological problems, commercial pressures and an unhealthy relationship with the media … ”The dirty little secret of the polling business . . . is that our ability to yield results accurately from samples that reflect the total population has probably never been worse in the 30 to 35 years that the discipline has been active in Canada,” says veteran pollster Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris-Decima which provides political polling for The Canadian Press."

    • if that helps you sleep at night… but two polls in two days showing 12 and 14 pt leads respectively, that's pretty strong stuff.

      • And Allan Gregg is known to shill for the liberal party, right?

        • why are you putting words in my mouth. Allan Gregg is more conservative than he is liberal.

          but whatever Gregg said, even though I agree with him, doesnt mean that these poll results are totally meaningless. all polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but a succession of polls showing similar results should be taken seriously.

          • Just establishing Gregg's bona fides. His opinion does cast some doubt on these polls, indeed on all polling.

          • True – but even in the last election cycle, the polls were pretty good predictors of the outcome. I believe Gregg is referring to the fact that few people have land lines, and that those that do are mostly older folk. Still, young people tend to vote in small numbers, and most older people do vote, so the polls – while far from perfect – are certainly indicative of an upcoming election result.

            It's easy to be dismissive of these polls here, Im not sure if they're so dismissive in the OLO.

  4. And next week, when the numbers are different, it still won't be a news story.

  5. Imagine that, a 5 point "surge" in a poll with a 5% MOE. The article says "it's too soon to say if the shift will be short-lived or turn out to be part of a trend," and that's true; but, its never to soon to ask if the "surge" is just noise… I am reminded of this recent quote:
    "The MOE, as it's known in the biz, is usually relegated to the tag line at the end of a poll story, advising that the survey is considered accurate within plus or minus so many percentage points, 19 times in 20. It's rarely explained what that really means…

    If support falls within those ranges the following week, it should be reported as no change — but rarely is. A two or three point change is more likely to be touted as one party surging or the other collapsing."

    • the survey is considered accurate within plus or minus so many percentage points, 19 times in 20. It's rarely explained what that really means…

      It means exactly what it says it means.

      If a poll gives Tory support at 35 +/- 3, then the Tory support will be between 32 and 38, 19 times out of 20.
      If the following week a similar poll gives Tory support at 33 +/- 3, it may not be a statistically significant shift, but it's a shift nonetheless. It means the actual Tory support is likely between 30 and 36.

      There may or may not have been a shift in the actual Tory support. The discrepancy might be due to chance or it may reveal an actual trend. There is no way to know with just these two polls.

      So it should not be reported as 'no change'. It's actually rather simple.

      • To be technical, it should be reported as "possibly changing"

        And I suppose to be accurate, that should be followed by "but probably not"

      • And a 30% return would have them loose many seats, whereas a 36% return would leave them exactly where they are today. Cause to celebrate?

  6. Majority Conservative governement…there is still hope for Canada!

    • There is still hope for Canada if Canadian tell Harper that he will NOT be Canada's autocrat.

    • AMEN

  7. I have a feeling no one is going to want to give Harper the election he might now want if these numbers add up. The only one who can hurt Harper is himself, and he's been pretty good at that.

    • The PM may call an election at the time of his choosing under the parliamentary system. All he has to do is visit Rideau Hall and request a dissolution. This is, after all, the longest serving minority government ever.

      • Of course, that would be two times in a row that he went against his own "law" re fixed terms.

  8. Funny, this may be the first time I haven't seen Emily with a post. I wonder why?

    I bet she becomes even more deranged once the Conservatives win a majority.

    • Please refrain from feeding the trolls, folks.

  9. The bottom line is Herper is not all rhat popular but the liberals are a disaster.A lot of people will be looking ahe theNDP.

  10. The next sound you hear will be Iggy's political career being flushed down the toilet!

  11. Here are some real reasons why the Tories surge in Ontario & Canada, because Canadians know:
    If a conservative doesn't like guns, he doesn't buy one.
    If a liberal doesn't like guns, he wants all guns outlawed.

    If a conservative is a vegetarian, he doesn't eat meat.
    If a liberal is a vegetarian, he wants all meat products banned for everyone.

    If a conservative sees a foreign threat, he thinks about how to defeat his enemy.
    If a liberal sees a foreign threat, he wonders how to surrender gracefully and still look good.

    If a conservative reads this, he'll forward it so his friends can have a good laugh.
    A liberal will delete it because he's "offended".

    Two liberal politicians are having lunch together; all of a sudden one stands up and shouts, "You're lying,” and the other politician responses with, "I know but just hear me out."

  12. myvoice

    3 words for you to mull over you pompous ass…………..(in and out)

  13. Right wing polls, right wing press. Dont believe it. Do you realize that on Feb 9 of this year 2011, the right wing CRTC made it OK for our news to deliberately misinform the Canadian public? Just so the right wing can win an election? That's power hungry! On that day, Feb. 9, 2011 our Canadian culture died. They did it by decietfully having us all talking about a 25 year old Dire Straits song. Our news channels are now going to report like FOX News but it will be a gradual change and it is starting with this election campaign. I am scared for Canada's future. My Dad fought on D-Day, and was wounded five times for our freedom and I don't want to lose that. Maybe you're Ok with that, I'm not!

  14. Noone can argue with this noble pursuit; The law is the only standardbearer:


    Liberals are more likely to do what it takes to correct miscarriages of justice because conservatives do not acknowledge their errors.

  15. FYI

    – Parti Québécois leader Marois called for a conference April 2011 to affirm sovereignity by charter (…not referendum)

    – Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe responded "I firmly support Mme.Marois”…and repeated his position that the sovereignist side (ie Quebec rule) should not discuss its strategy in public (montrealgazette.ca)

    – Globe and Mail links federal and Ont Conservatives to separatist National Council of Canadian Tamils. In 2008, World Tamil Movement and Tigers' Canadian Front were banned in Canada.

    The possibility that a minority separatist group will successfully seize sufficient power to assert a Nation of Quebec without referendum increases. The masses will pay dearly if unrestrained, deceitful, cowardly politicians (who are unwilling or unable to obtain a majority referendum) pursue the defective vision of new sovereignists willing to separate by charter…not referendum.

    [X] END Harper Conservative “Contempt of Parliament”

  16. That's right, it's time to end the Harper era:

    Follow me on Twitter, and you will understand how destructive the Conservatives are:


    You know what a Dictator sounds like when he is afraid to debate his opponent.

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