Budget surplus could be bigger than forecast in 2015, Flaherty tells CTV


OTTAWA – The federal budget surplus could be bigger than predicted in 2015, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in an interview aired Sunday.

The assessment falls in line with projections from the parliamentary budget office that came a month ago.

A Dec. 5 report from the PBO estimated the government could achieve a surplus of $4.6 billion by 2015, nearly $1 billion more than the estimate included in the November economic update.

In an interview with CTV’s Question Period, Flaherty said Canada could have a bigger surplus than projected if both the domestic and U.S. economies continue to gain strength.

“We could have a larger surplus than we anticipate, but we will have a surplus,” said Flaherty.

The Harper Conservatives are relying on balancing the books to help propel the party through a federal election campaign that’s scheduled for the fall of 2015.

The PBO report, however, prefaced its surplus projections on expectations that the government would maintain EI premiums at current levels, that there would be no delays in selling off some public assets and that spending restraints would continue.

And that is exactly what the government expects to do, said Flaherty.

The government has frozen basic EI premium rates at $1.88 for every $100 earned until 2016.

As well, it has announced the sell off of some assets, including the Ridley Terminals and Dominion Coal Blocks in British Columbia and the government’s remaining stock of General Motors shares.

Flaherty said the government would also continue cutting spending to eliminate the budget deficit in time for the 2015-16 fiscal year.

“We’re controlling our own departmental spending,” the minister said, adding that his government will not reduce transfers to the provinces or cut programs or benefits.

Flaherty also backed away from recent concerns over the levels of personal debt held by Canadians, telling CTV that moves to shore up mortgage rules have kept housing debt loads in check.

“The (housing) market is calming somewhat, so I’m less concerned than I was,” he said.

“And when you look at debt to net worth, as long as the housing market remains relatively strong, we don’t really have a debt issue.”

However, Flaherty maintained that he would intervene to further tighten mortgage rules if the market needed further cooling.

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Budget surplus could be bigger than forecast in 2015, Flaherty tells CTV

  1. The Cons are completely opaque when it comes to disclosing credible numbers behind their forecasts (just ask the PBO). But I wonder how much of this “surplus” is the result of so-called “lapsed spending” (i.e., money announced and committed, but never actually spent) – the equivalent of “dead money” in the business world, sitting idly in their hoarded accounts.

    • you mean like paul martins forecasts? stop being small minded and short sighted. martin couldn’t get it right and he had positive economic times.

      • Martin was frequently criticized for similar opacity and creative number crunching. It wasn’t justifiable then, either. Two apparent wrongs do not make a right, in my moral universe.

    • also ur ‘ie’ is completely wrong, you diffinently are not a business women.

      • Only “a business women [sic]” is qualified to offer an opinion on this matter?

        How absurdly exclusionary is that, my spelling and grammar challenged friend?

        • i dont have a keyboard right now LOL

  2. I thought a budget surplus on behalf of the government was evil? I suppose it will be spun, once again, that governments are just incapable and incompetent.

  3. Well it “could” be bigger, but it might be smaller, or it might not exist at all. Flaherty really doesn’t know. In all his years as a Finance Minister in both Ontario and Federally, he’s NEVER brought in even a balanced budget, so we’re really in uncharted territory with this one. I’m guessing it all comes down to how desperate the Cons are to fool the public into voting for them again.