Fall weather forecast: Not ‘boring’

Canada’s experts take ‘best shot’ at predicting fall weather


 

OAKVILLE, Ont. – Canadians are in store for a typical fall with extended stretches of fair weather and bouts of wetness, according to one of the country’s leading forecasters.

The Weather Network, which released its forecast for September, October and November on Tuesday, predicts a normal season with an expected wide range of temperatures as the country transitions into winter.

The prediction of average weather for fall “doesn’t mean it’s boring,” said chief meteorologist Chris Scott, pointing to large thunderstorms that could erupt during the season.

“Localized thunderstorms turn into widespread systems,” he said, adding that this means rainfall could last over a day or two, though average rates of precipitation are forecast for most of the country.

Those living in Eastern Canada will likely have to brace for the largest amount of heavy storms, Scott said.

“This year being the 10th anniversary of hurricane Juan, a lot of people in Nova Scotia and PEI will have their eyes on the Atlantic in the next month,” he said.

The hurricane in 2003 was classified as a Category 2 storm, and hit land directly over Halifax. The storm hammered the area, cutting power to homes and causing extensive property damage.

Hurricane season generally peaks in September, Scott said, and the Weather Network has predicted more storms than usual across the Atlantic.

Scott said hurricanes tend to occur in bursts with many happening at once but there’s no prediction yet on whether any storms will hit land.

“If the jet stream that steers storms is just in the right location, sometimes those hurricanes can nip inland,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ontario and Quebec are slated to have a colourful fall, thanks to average temperatures and precipitation rates.

The expected return to typical temperatures will likely come as a relief to Ontarians after record-breaking rainfall in July.

Two separate storm systems moved over the Greater Toronto Area at the same time, catching many commuters off-guard with flash floods.

After the wet summer in southern Ontario, Scott said “normal precipitation patterns” will resume in the middle of next month.

The same is true for Alberta, where flooding in June made international headlines when thousands were forced from their homes and there was billions of dollars of damage.

The Prairies as well as British Columbia can look forward to a normal fall, said Scott, though there may be small areas of exception.

“We think there may be some pockets of above-normal precipitation, especially down the spine of the Rockies in British Columbia through southern Alberta into southwest Saskatchewan,” he said.

Those living in the Prairies can also prepare for possible large snowstorms in the middle of October, Scott said.

Meanwhile, Vancouver Island in B.C. will see temperatures slightly above normal, but the rest of the province will have a typical season.

Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut can expect near normal temperatures and precipitation for the most part, the Weather Network predicted.

As for the upcoming Labour Day weekend, British Columbia is facing a low pressure system that could bring some showers to the coast. Large parts of the rest of Canada can expect warm weather over the long weekend, with possible thunderstorms in the area stretching from Manitoba to the St. Lawrence Valley, the Weather Network said.

Scott added that the overall fall forecast is a “best shot” prediction by meteorologists.

“Fall outlooks especially are trends,” he said. “We do think though that this fall is going to be fairly typical.”


 
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