Massive-sample, oddly-long-time-in-the-field Quebec poll from a reputable firm shows the Bloc at 33%, the Conservatives at 26%, the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 12% and the Greens at 5%. This compares to 42%-25%-21%-8%-4% at the 2006 elections.
I think it’s interesting to make that comparison. The Bloc is up only a little from recent doldrums, and still off 9 points from its last election performance. The Conservatives are up about a point from last time, though down from pre-election peaks — turns out there’s a rich gala vote in parts of Quebec, at least. The two-point Liberal uptick from 2006 is one of the best performances Stéphane Dion has logged in Quebec since he became leader, but that’s not saying much. The NDP is also down from recent highs, and they’d have to do better than 12% to hope for any gains in Quebec.
To me it looks like substantially status-quo results in Quebec if these numbers held up.