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And now, the exciting conclusion


 

This evening we’ll go live to cover the conclusion of the 41st general election.

For those of you scoring at home, I will be at Liberal campaign headquarters in Toronto, John Geddes will be a few blocks away with the NDP and Colby Cosh will be in Calgary for the Conservative festivities.

The first results won’t be released until 10pm, but we’ll start up earlier—probably around 6pm or so—to set the scene and preview the night ahead. It will probably be a late one. It will almost definitely be an interesting one.


 
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And now, the exciting conclusion

  1. What are you guys going to do at the campaign HQs? Is there liveblog tonight or something else?

    You got short straw, Wherry? Libs hq not likely to be pleasant place tonight, lots of morrissey and fretting about how they will ever move on with life.

    My predication for final seat count: Cons with slight majority 158 seats, NDP 75, Libs 50.

    • "lots of morrissey" lol

  2. bergkamp beat me to this but I was thinking that since Wherry mentioned scoring that we should make this our official predictions post!

    Anyway, here's mine: CPC 148, NDP 76, Libs 57, Bloc 27

    • Yes yes. But will they form a coalition, and with whom and whom, and whom get's to lead whom? Eye on the ball man. :)

  3. Thank God it's nearly over.

    • But they keep telling us constant elections are necessary for the sake of Canadian democracy. You must rejoice in them!

      • Do you have a quote for that Dennis – there must be one readily available if 'they keep telling us'?

  4. I will be at Liberal campaign headquarters in Toronto.

    A-ha! :P

  5. I will be at Liberal campaign headquarters in Toronto

    Shocker! lol

    It will almost definitely be an interesting one.

    Unless, of course, it mirrors the recent election in Toronto that the polls kept saying was tightening but ended up being called in a blowout shortly after the returns were in.

    Nevertheless, I don't know how it will turn out. Polling numbers seem good to Layton, but vote splits may not be. We shall see.

    • Wherry at Liberal campaign HQ in Toronto: hell, I figured that's where all of Wherry's blog posts have been written for years now. :)

  6. LOL I have no idea how this will turn out, so I guess I'll go with my original statement….we'll be right back where we started.

    • I am starting to think the same thing…..except perhaps with the NDP and Liberals switching places.

  7. My prediction

    CPC 141
    NDP 89
    LPC 42
    BQ 34
    GPC 0
    Ind 2

    Duceppe holds seat & resigns as leader on E-night
    Iggy loses seat, and resigns as leader within 72 hours of E-night

    • I'm not so sure that Ignatieff will leave so soon. It would be wise, I think on behalf of the Liberals, to put him in front until the Conservatives are defeated in a non-confidence – at least. Give him that, then, there will be changes, CPC and Liberal.

    • I'll go out on a limb and predict that Ignatieff stays on for another kick at the can. He's still the only guy in there who can run up the middle and haul the LPC back from the left wing, and another few years in the cheap seats will blunt most of Harper's arguments against him vis a vis his time away from Canada.

      But it's undoubtedly true that the one thing the LPC is good at is shooting itself in the foot. My realistic feeling is that they'll dump Ignatieff, ignore the results of the past three elections, and try the exact same crap with another candidate in the next election. With worse results.

      • I wouldn't mind if he did. In fact, what he should do is ignore the Liberal war-room and start acting according to his own principles. I would like him a lot more if he did (not sure about potential Liberal voters though).

    • Yes yes. But has Iffy already got his ticket booked to Haaarvaard. Eye on the ball man.:)

    • That's a lot of predicting. If it's 73 hours, I'll still give you credit.

  8. So we can have another one in a month!

    • If the government falls in a month, the GG may call on another party to see if they can gain the confidence of the House.

      I wonder if Harper would accept this… <drowned out by boos>

      • Yup, doubtful we'll have another election so soon

  9. My prediction:

    CPC 154
    NDP 78
    LPC 47
    BQ 28
    Ind 1

    • Wouldn't that be fun. Who's the independent? Arthur or Guergis? :)

      Who's the Speaker? Non CPC speaker gives CPC a de-facto majority.

      • Guergis! :) Just to make things interesting…

        Speaker: Michael Chong, depriving CPC of de facto majority (but he still gets to break tie votes)

        I could see some floor-crossing happening in close outcomes like this.

        • In my prediction the CPC get 155, which turns the election of speaker into a controversy. Byelections get very interesting with both our predictions.

    • CPC 154?

      How long did it take for you to decide on that number? Conflicted between minority/majority?

      I am also looking at everyone's NDP pick, see if they believe dippers are sweeping nation or not.

      • This election is so unpredictable that I'm going for the opposite of Wells's first rule: The most exciting outcome!

        • Which Libs do you think will lose? Who`s loss would make for most interesting night? A few Montreal Libs will probably unemployed tomorrow, there are a few big names that might go.

          john g apparently thinks Iggy will lose his seat, that would be shocking.

        • While your projection is exciting, it's not the MOST exciting. That would be this:

          CPC 116
          NDP 116
          LIB 48
          BQ 34
          GP/IND 1

          Not my prediction, mind you, but it would be more exciting than your projection, IMHO.

          • too many seats!
            to be the MOST exciting would require tied-up-in-knots results such that neither the BQ nor the LPC could make a majority with either the NDP or CPC, say:
            CPC: 116
            NDP: 116
            LPC: 37
            BQ: 37
            GP: 1
            IND: 1 (Arthur or Guerguis)

  10. I have no idea what the seat count will be, but the NDP surge has culled much of my pessimism about the state of federal politics and what Canadians are willing to tolerate from their 'leaders'.

    My only prediction is that the NDP will beat the Libs, but only by about 20 seats. Both parties combined will control a minority slightly larger than the CPCs. Would love to see a NDP minority, but their support is too national to pick up regionally the same way the CPC, Libs and Bloc will.

    Cons – 135, NDP – 78, Libs – 58, Bloc – 35, Green – 1, Ind – 1

  11. By the way, for me, a key number to look for is the combined seat total between the NDP and Liberals. If it exceeds that of the Tories, it could make post-election scenarios that much more interesting.

    • May you live in interesting times, then.

  12. Hedges, I'm curious why you're so pessimistic about May's chances (1 out of 20). Do you know something I don't? I thought she was pretty close to Lunn in the polls, although I've only seen a couple for Saanich-Gulf Islands, and I think one was biased (released by the Greens).

    • Yeah, well, I suppose that May's chances are somewhat better than 1 in 20.

      The 1 in 20 had more to do with the CPC decline, the BQ decline all the way down to 20, which then led exatly to LPC + NDP = 154, which then gives GRN a possible deciding vote. Ideally for this scenario to be 'fun', the H of C would have an odd number of seats, so that CPC + BQ = NDP + LPC, with one GRN. Of course the speaker thing kind of makes those scenarios harder to setup..Maybe I should have gone with 2 GRNs!!??

      More seriously, I have spent some time checking out Saanich – Gulf Islands and mostly 308.com…..I just haven't seen enough movement in the GRN/LPC/NDP numbers to be comfortable that she can make it. I also heard about the one Green poll that indicated that she is/was ahead, but how much stock can a person place in that.

    • I'm sure she will do fairly well in the Gulf Islands, and even on the Saanich peninsula, but the north end of Victoria does seem to be fairly prime CPC territory.

      And this riding, for me, really highlights how differently people view elections – what are all of those NDP/LPC voters in that riding thinking? Your candidate is a fairly distant third or fourth. Why not help to elect the leader of a national party? Are they scared that she will show up thier party leader?

      OTOH, if she does get elected, it will probably happen because enough LPC/NDP voters actually vote strategically (as I am recommending), even though they told the pollsters otherwise.

      In nine hours or so it will all be over except for the crying!! ;-)

      • In nine hours or so it will all be over except for the crying!! ;-)
        and the drinking! have the terms for this year's drinking game been set yet? I'll have to down one when the Prime Minister re-elect pledges to continue to work constructively and collaboratively with the opposition parties in Parliament in recognition of the will of the Canadian electorate

        • Nice!!

          Or, on the basis of this Dan Gardner column, folks could toss one back whenever some talking head says something like "Well, it all started to change when ______, which I noted at the time."

          • ooo, I like that, much less snide and partisan than mine.

        • Let’s just hope it doesn’t involve the word ‘Friends’, ‘cuz that would render the economy immobile for the next two days.

          • Yeah well, he’s gonna find out just how many new friends he actually made during the last 37 days. ;-)

            Which reminds of that Ally Bank ad and the ice cream for new clients….my current fave.

          • Huh, well look at that. Apparently Harper made quite a few more friends than I thought he had over the campaign…..right of center voters worried about Layton, perhaps?

            Anyhow, wonder what it will all look like in the spring of 2015. :-)

      • what are all of those NDP/LPC voters in that riding thinking? Your candidate is a fairly distant third or fourth. Why not help to elect the leader of a national party? Are they scared that she will show up thier party leader?

        I think that NDP/LPC voters have a vested interest in not having Elizabeth May in the House of Commons, because it would be a huge boost to the Green Party's profile, which would siphon more votes from the Dippers and the Liberals in the next election.

        • You are, of course, correct.

          For some reason I often seem to forget that elections are only one part policiesideas (the Greens would help bring a few different perspectives to the table) and two or three parts politics (the parties). Uggggh.

        • WOW!!

          Looking forward to seeing May in the scrums in Ottawa…should be great.

          BTW, anyone still saying this was a needless election? ;-)

        • Crap! Just realized that with the majority Harper will almost certainly eliminate the vote subsidy, thereby taking some of the financial steam out of the Green sail.

          Good thing I made a donation!

  13. Pushed. None too gently.

    • Harder than Dion, or do you think they learned their lesson from last time?

      • At this point I think they are down deep actually hoping for a CPC majority. This party needs 4+ years of stability to lick its wounds, find its feet again, and figure out what kind of party they want to be. They need someone to grow into the leader's role without having to worry about fighting another election in the next 6-18 months, or being a kingmaker in a minority government. Besides, I predict that if the CPC win a majority, they will lose in 2015.

        Another minority, which postpones this activity yet again for the sake of electoral preparedness, would be a disaster for the Liberals.

        • Besides, I predict that if the CPC win a majority, they will lose in 2015.

          Wow, the predictions never end. What about the election after that?

          • Kodos in 2019

  14. Really? I thought john g was just throwing out a name, stir it up a bit, had no idea Iggy seat so precarious.

    Also had no idea Mackenzie King lost his seat in `45. I wonder if Iggy would do similar thing, but locals often have problem if they think candidate is carpetbagger, which they probably would if Iggy looks for seat outside Toronto.

    `…. lost his Prince Albert, Saskatchewan seat in the June 11, 1945 general election. King did not resign from office and was re-elected to the House of Commons in an August 6, 1945 by-election for the riding of Glengarry, Ontario.` Parliament of Canada website

    • I agree with your assessment of John G's atement, and would point out that it also requires 42 Lib MPs unwilling to give up their seat for a byelection for Iggy to be pushed out unwillingly within 3 days.

      • tough to give up your job for a guy who you may view as having almost just cost you your job, and who has few prospects of being able to appoint you ambassador to Somewherenicelandia

        • But you only need one, if you really want to stay on as PM and are going to force them to do it in a leadership review.

  15. I'm going:
    CPC 145
    LPC 62
    NDP 56
    Bloc 45

    I can see the NDP matching expectations outside of Quebec, but I really doubt they have the ground game for a major breakthrough in la belle province.

    • `….but I really doubt they have the ground game for a major breakthrough in la belle province`

      You disagree with theory that you don`t need ground game if your supporters are enthused?

      • Yeah, I think get out the vote matters. They're enthused but they don't know where to vote, can't get a sitter etc. Or they figure the elections going to their guy anyway so it's not that important. It can add up.

        • The BQ has no idea who they should be calling or picking up, as they came up with their voter call lists before Layton's surge. I assume this is similar for other parties as well. I think the ground game is reduced in effectiveness in Quebec this time around.

          • Could be. I'd think the parties would have a pretty good idea of their committed voters, and would know enough to screen their likely voters. But, clearly if Mulroney could get the Purolator guy who delivered packages to the riding office on the right day elected, there's lots of scope for surprises.

    • I think differences in “ground game” cease to matter too much once your more than 15 points ahead of your rivals. If the NDP lead over the Bloc was closer to 10 points than it is I’d be more respectful of the Bloc’s infrastructure, but as polls have the NDP’s lead over the Bloc closer to 20 than it is to 10, I just don’t see how they can make that kind of ground up.

      I could be biased by the fact that I know entire families in Quebec (English-speaking Quebec, it’s true) who are voting NDP for the first time. Then again, I know entire families in Quebec who are voting NDP for the first time.

  16. .
    The way polling booth geometry is degrading, I expect in 5 years 100% attendance, and show of hands, and they better be raised for the conservatives. And yes, I'm repeating myself. Specifically:

    I vigorously object to the creeping minimalism in voting 'booth' design. I remember the 50s and 60s where I could see the grownups confidently vote in complete privacy and secrecy, when my mother went to vote.

    It is important to maintain the privacy, the more so in an era when surveillance is a trivial accomplishment.

    For people exercising their right to vote for radical, extremist, or highly disfavoured parties and candidates, they should feel they can do so without some record of it landing on CSIS or the RCMP's desk somewhere.

    And where the likes of Gordon Campbell and Stephen Harper are in danger of being a 'given' in an election, the future may hold the voting for anyone else as a disgrace deserving the 'appropriate' measures. We don't want to become another Iran or North Korea.
    .

    • May I add that if they try and bring electronic voting to Canada I will personally move back in an instant and begin the crusade to throw Diebold and the like out of the country. Those god damned abominations are used in Peterborough for no good reason at all and let me tell you, there is no rational reason for a small country such as ours to replace the human element. I want to vote in person, by manual ballot, which are then counted manually and overseen by a scrutineer. It works and it's pretty much foolproof. Money savings? Bugger off- completely minimal. It's not convenient? Well to f***ing bad for you- get off yer lazy iArse and vote.

      • I'm a booster of Alternate Voting (ranking candidates) as a relatively minor tweak to improve the legitimacy of our first past the post system, without having to mess around with legitimacy-challenged things like party lists and multi-member constituencies that you find in most PR systems… anyway, to make a long story longer, I think this system would work best with Scantron-type ballots. It's not completely electronic, as there's still a paper ballot marked by a pencil-weilding Canadian (or his/her designated assistant in cases of physical impairment), but computers would do the counting and ranking unless there needs to be a recount. I know these types of ballots work well in municipal elections, where each ballot can have multiple positions (mayor, councillor, school trustee, etc.)

        • The difficulty with any electronic voting is that there's really no way to make a guarantee that what goes in is exactly what comes out unless you manually verify the vote anyway. While this might seem to similarly apply with manual counting, there is a difference in the scale. Manual voting fraud is difficult to carry past a single ballot box, at worst. And that's without even taking into account scrutineers and the like.

          E-voting, on the other hand, can effect huge numbers of votes in a very very short time.

  17. Hey can I break a few Election Canada laws by reporting early results with impunity from my 27 degrees and breezy poolside seat here in northern SD county?

    MUHAHAHA…..

    • We KNOW where you live Dave.
      EC.

      WE KNOW WHERE YOU ALL LIVE…MUAHAHA…

      • damn…don't tell Chet or Al Qaeda

    • I think I can speak for those of us who are enjoying a dreary, rainy, 8 degree day here in Canada when I tell you what you can do with your blessed pool…

      • I'm not sure it'll fit.

      • Oh and we'll stop at Alberto's to get real carne asada burritos….mmmm burritos…..

  18. I really have no idea about this one. If I had to guess, I'd suggest:

    CPC/NDP/LPC/BQ/GR/IND

    BC 18/14/4/0/0/0
    AB 27/1/0/0/0/0
    SK/MB/North 22/6/3/0/0/0
    ON 65/22/19/0/0/0
    QC 8/40/9/18/0/0
    Atlantic 11/8/13/0/0/0

    TOTAL:

    CPC 151
    NDP 91
    LPC 48
    BQ 18
    GR 0
    IND 0

    But I'm being kind to the LPC; I think they could get hammered in Montreal and potentially in Toronto. I also think the Conservatives could pick up a couple more, but there would have to be some wicked vote splits for them to pick up a majority. I also think the BQ could do even worse, and I don't see any independents getting elected this time, even with the Guergis cult following. I'd also be very surprised to see May elected. Pleasantly surprised, mind you, but surprised none the less. Ontario is still a complete crapshoot, as I haven't seen a single riding-level poll there this entire election.

    • Curious…but why would they necessarily get hammered in Montreal? Wont the OC hit the BQ the hardest? Wont some of the splits help the libs or possibly even the tories?

      • I'm only going off of some riding reports that put some of the races pretty close in Montreal. Hammered is probably not appropriate, but that's why it's a guesstimate and I'm not putting money on it. :)

        • OK. But i've heard a number of people say that the libs will be hammered, perhaps they will. What i'm really asking is is my analysis faulty? Am I overlooking something absurdly obvious to everyone else? No doubt it is going to be a tough night for the libs in any case.

  19. Wishful thinking on my part:

    Total: 308

    CPC: 156
    NDP: 69
    LPC: 57
    BQ: 26
    GR: 0
    IND: 0

    • Brave man…hope there are no greens in your neighbourhood though.

    • Here's my wishful thinking prediction:
      CPC: 300
      NDP: 0
      LPC: 8
      BQ: 0
      GR: 0
      IND: 0

      I acknowledge there are at least dignified and deserving Liberals out there.

      • You're funny.

  20. Doubt if NDP will get so many seats. Surely the Liberals have some true believers.

    • Nothing to do with the Liberals, Prairieanne. They had 35 seats outside Quebec last time, and will probably receive at least another 25 or so from Quebec…maybe even 30. This doesn't even take into consideration their polling increases in BC or Atlantic Canada.

  21. CPC – Meat-Lover's Pizza with cheese in the crust
    LPC – 20-pack of Chicken McNuggets (pronounced "Mac-Nuggets" like Cleavon Little from Once Bitten)
    NDP – Creation with extra potatoes from Boustan
    IND – eggbread with hummus
    GRN – porkchop sandwiches!

    • I heard Boustan closed
      (hate to bear bad news rumours, I'd give a great deal for a veggie sandwich with everything and a side of potatoes for my election night snacking)

      • Yes, I heard the same thing recently.

        The only place I know that had as customers both Pierre Trudeau and the Trailer Park Boys

        • and the entire Grey Cup Champion Allouettes!

          • For me & my hockey / drinking buddies, that was place we always went after an evening at the the Mondiale des Bieres.

            A real loss.

  22. Damn him. I have money on Ignatieff crossing the floor. I also had money on rangers winning the cup. Say..i'm a little short right now, could you see your way to maybe, posssibly…

  23. Steelers 35
    Packers 27

    • You giving odds…is that right? i never watch lacrosse so why did i comment?

    • Habs 10 Leafs 0

  24. "For those of you scoring at home, I will be at Liberal campaign headquarters in Toronto "

    Take my advise Aaron…smuggle in a bottle of scotch…better yet drink it before you go.

    CPC – 308 :All polls closed and ballet boxes seized er…in for repair.

    Others – 0

    Just kidding…haven't a clue.

    Predict the libs and the greens fair badly. And Duffy loses his seat and his senate free meal card.

    Wildest outlier…SH does much more poorly then predicted..

    Insane outlier…MI in a landslide.[ that takes out all the other party candidates]

  25. If Jack becomes minority opposition leader and successfully gets the Royal nod to depose SH. What are the odds that the political legitmacy argument will no longer apply.

    Almost as if the libs/dippers planned it that way…although the libs neglected to inform their leader.

    Oh my god…i think i've inadvertently provided the tories with new TPs after this!

  26. That's right.. duck and weave.. duck and weave..

    • Are you now saying this election wasn't necessary for Canadian democracy? Sorry, but I'm not going to research quotes from the first few weeks of the campaign. You people want to change your story, fine. Typical.

  27. Surprisingly, nobody's picking the Liberals to win.

    • Surprisingly! That was sarcasm right. :)

      • Be my guest..knock yourself out….yeessh!!

        • Damn, i’m so slow sometimes. Sorry bout that Macleans.

          • Yes, sarcasm. As for the other two comments, who are you talking to?

          • I swear i heard voices, honest i did.

          • Happens to the best of us. :-)

  28. My seat prediction is that there won’t be a certain seat count after tonight.

  29. What I love about tonight’s election is that I can legitimately see anything from a Tory majority to an NDP minority happening. If this is the election that finally gets the youth out then it could be stunning. Or, everything could split just so and the Tories could win significantly fewer votes while the NDP wins significantly more votes resulting in: Tory majority.

    As much as I loathe the idea of a Tory majority, the electoral reform advocate in me kind of relishes the idea of an election in which the popular vote swinging pretty dramatically to the left results in the legislature swinging to the right.

  30. My comment must be approved by the site admins before it will appear publicly.

    • Mine too.

      • Feels like my pre-star Gawker days.

    • They're on to you, LKO, run!!

  31. Well SOMEONE ain’t getting an invite……

    Sorry….becoming incoherent….must turn on AC (and NOT I do NOT mean Coyne)

    • You just signed the earth's death warrant, Dave.

      I hope you're happy Dave?

      Daisy Daisy, give me your answer do… I'm half cracy…

      Like to sing Dave?

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