Glen McGregor figures the Conservatives would be favoured to win the new riding of Nepean.
A Citizen analysis using 2011 poll-by-poll results shows that, had this smaller riding been in place in the last election, Poilievre would still have won easily with 51 per cent of the popular vote and an 11,000-vote plurality over the nearest challenger. Though rock-solid, Conservative support in the area is not quite as strong as it is within the larger boundaries of the existing Nepean-Carleton riding, which includes rural areas that helped earn Poilievre 54 per cent of the total votes.
The Liberals and New Democrats would do only slightly better in the new riding, the poll breakdowns show. The Liberals would have finished with 27 per cent of the vote and the New Democrats with 18 per cent, both only small gains. The pattern is similar using results from the 2008 election, when 52 per cent of electors in polls that are now in the proposed Nepean riding would have voted for Poilievre.