Commies leading Traitors! A special investigation!

Updated seat projections, reflecting Commies’ recent surge. Fascists still short of “absolute power,” Visitors going nowhere, and Traitors now the fourth party. Ewocs still without cigarettes.

Fascists Visitors Commies Traitors Ewocs Hermits
Lispop 149 68 52 39 0 0
Ekos 134 82 60 32 0 0
308.com 150 76 36 45 0 1
ElectionAlmanac.com 141 77 50 40 0 0
Calgary Grit 150 74 35 48 0 0
DemocraticSpace.com 148 77 39 43 0 0
TooCloseToCall.ca 145 74 47 42 0 0
CdnElectionWatch 150 75 40 42 0 1
AVERAGE 146 75 45 41 0 0





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Commies leading Traitors! A special investigation!

  1. An alternate reality for you:

    A man lives outside Canada for most of adult life, is parachuted into the Liberal leadership, the party members told they have no democratic say in the matter,

    misses parliament more than any other,

    muses about forming a goverment after LOSING the election,

    Lectures us Canadians about the importance of democracy.

    • Well duh Chet- that' why he's seems to have peaked at 32% in the polls.

      The bigger question is why yer man has peaked at 38.

    • Here's a REALITY for you:

      A man lives inside a bubble most of adult life, conspires to manufacture a coalition of the right, gets a minority government in 2006 with chance to prove he's worthy of a majority. He then prorogues Parliament twice, shuts down committees and offers up false numbers to back his flawed budget. Oh, and he also created a structural deficit along the way. He is then found in CONTEMPT of our democracy. Undaunted, he then opts to misinform his base, telling one and all that Canada's constitutional conventions and the role of the GG are open to "debate".

      Refuses to work with other parties after Election 2011.

      And he continues to hold both Canada & it's democratic institutions in CONTEMPT!
      All the while lecturing us on fear and the importance of supplanting our democracy to suit him – but not US!

    • Alternative is probably the word that you want, not alternate.

      • When did Macleans become a subsidiary of the Toronto Star?

        • The Toronto Star. Who's that, Ben Mulroney?

    • I live and work outside of Canada. I was born a Canada, I am a Canadian. I can vote in a Canadian election. I can even run for elected office. So what's your point ? Are you saying that unless I have lived in Canada all my adult life I am not as good as Canadian as you? Thank goodness I have choices when I vote. I certainly don't want small minded people running my country.

  2. And Andrew,

    Ipsos has a recent seat projection showing the CPC with over 200 seats.

    • Whereas others say:

      Heading into the Easter holidays, the federal Liberals and New Democrats are in a statistical tie, according to the results of a new election campaign poll that also shows the Conservatives still short of majority territory.
      http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNe

    • That's wild eh? Is it even statistically possible though? I know Dief and Mulroney were around 50% in the polls when they hit the 200 mark. With CPC support generally thrown out of whack because of the heavy western concentration, how do they pull off 200 seats with less than 40%?

      • There's a couple of polls showing the 905 imploding for the libs, and breaking for Harper.

        That alone will do it.

      • SDD, I agree it's unlikely, but with 3- or 4-way vote splits in many ridings, none of seat prediction algorithms are of any use.

      • I think 200 is a bit optimistic (that'd require movement into the 416 and the Montreal area which just isn't gonna happen), but the Conservatives could pull out a big majority if the Liberals and Bloc do as badly as polls and momentum suggest. Here's my best-case scenario for the Conservatives:

        - Cons pick up ~4 seats in BC on the Island and in Vancouver (lucky splits), hold elsewhere
        - No change in Alberta
        - Hold in Saskatchewan (maybe lose one or two to the NDP)
        - Up 1 in Winnipeg from the Liberals
        - Hold Nanavut, possibly take Yukon
        - Pick up Guelph and London NC from the Liberals, hold elsewhere (maybe lose one or two more to the NDP in SW Ontario)
        - Pick up Kingston
        - Pick up ~15 seats in the 905 from the Liberals
        - Pick up ~2 seats in Northern Quebec from Bloc on heavy NDP splitting
        - Pick up ~3 more seats in Quebec City and E. Quebec from the Bloc
        - +3 in NB and PEI
        - Hold in Nova Scotia (at worst lose a couple to the NDP)
        - +1 in NFLD

        For this to happen the Conservative vote doesn't have to improve any: Liberal and Bloc votes just need to move to the NDP in sufficient numbers. Although it's a Goldilocks problem of not too much NDP gain (out West and in Southwestern Ontario), but not too little (in the 905 and Quebec)

    • Yeah, and Ipsos also had the Bloc at 4 seats. Hence why no person with any intelligence or knowledge of our political system (ex: Andrew Coyne) would reference those seat projections.

      • Doesn't the EKOS seat projector have Liberals GAINING seats even with their support tanking well below their last election numbers? Most of them seem like bunk to me.

    • Let's not blame this on Ipsos. While their poll does show the highest Tory support and would surely be a solid majority, they did not do the seat analysis that shows the Bloc at 4 seats. That was done by Fair Vote Canada, I assume by ignoring regional numbers entirely.

      • Which is why it's so ridiculous that the front page story of the Ottawa Citizen today is the massive Tory majority prediction based on this single aberration. But the Citizen is a staunchly Conservative paper, so perhaps it's not surprising that they want to influence the vote that way.

  3. on the 22nd it had all three party is the 30% range o 36.5 per cent, with the Liberals at 31.6 per cent and the NDP at 31.2 per cent. with only oil and ottawa giving the conservatives more of a lead in alot of the country conservatives are down as much a 20% taking away any lead ottawa calgary and edmonton may have given them …where are you getting 200 seats from? no poll i have read has them high enough in the country to even work out to 200 seats even at that percent it won't even work out to them being elected with their polls dropping You must be using figures from party member polls they have been dropping alot so less than all would vote for them than did last time…… tie seems about right .if .listening to people…

  4. That is pretty the best the every government seems to do in recent years. Mulroney was the last to obtain majority support. And Chretien's majorities were based on 38-43% support.

    You are being dishonest by lumping the opposition together as if they have any cohesive views.

    • They are all to the left of Harper.

      Chretien had 3 majorities.

      • WIth roughly 60% of the population opposed to Chretien!

        • Only the Cons were opposed to Chretien.

          You guys confuse polls with seats with parties….and then wonder why it doesn't make sense to you.

    • And combining Chretien with NDP and Bloc will give you a vote much greater than 50%.

      • Well, that is actually what many of us would be interested to find out. If only someone could unite the right…

  5. Only the ones paid to yak like you, Chettie boy. Don't kid yourself.

  6. This reminds me of 2004 and 2006 when people were predicting a Harper majority and then something happened.

    • Is "Don''t worry, something will happen to turn the polls around?" higher or lower on the campaign death spiral list than "The only poll that counts is on election day?"

  7. PEAKED- past tense, brother.

    Yep, he's back down now in the low 20's so it seems that not many are buying what he's selling.

    Still, regarding turnout, watch out for the kids Chet- if they're motivated and get out, they tend not to vote Conservative.

    Have a lovely weekend.

    • This is probably the worst time for students trying to vote with the term ending. Last election I was home from university and had to return twice to my polling station in my home riding with still more and more proof of residency (that in addition to my voter registration card). If I wasn't still receiving mail in my home riding I wouldn't have been able to vote at all.

  8. Andrew, my HTML inspector shows that your table had a paragraph inside each table cell, and your paragraphs are styled to have 20 points worth of margin both on top and below them, along with 5 points worth on either side.

    You would have to edit the HTML so that just the titles are inside each "<th>" element, and just the numbers are inside each "<td>" element.

    WordPress is not great for handling tables. I have to manually code the HTML for all the tables I display inside blogposts at Pundits' Guide. You have no idea how time-consuming sometimes!

    • Another example of the LIEberal MEDIA- WHY DON'T YOU JUST COME RIGHT OUT AND SAY EVERYTHING NEEDS TO BE LEFT JUSTIFIED.

      NOTICE IN MICROSOFT WORD- THE LEFT JUSTIFY COMES BEFORE THE RIGHT JUSTIFY!!!!! IN FRONT OF- THEY ARE FORCING YOU TO LEFT JUSTIFY!!!

      DENNIS- CHET- BACK ME UP HERE!

      • Stop yelling.
        Or is your caps key broken?

      • LOL!!!! But seriously, your ALL CAPS should be slightly LESS CONSISTENT and you'll want to include more EXCLAMATION points!!!!1! and speeling errs.

  9. Today's Conservative attack ad mentions a potential NDP-Bloc coalition.

    Tomorrow's Conservative attack ad will likely mention a Christian Heritage Party-Bloc coalition.

    • LOL now THAT I'd pay to see.

    • How desparate you people are becoming.

      But keep it up.The more rubbish is being hurled at the CPC, the more their support will go up.

      • That argument seems a tad unfounded. Sling mud at a political party and their support will go UP? lol

        With Love and Gratitude,

        Jeremiah

        • Oddly enough, the more attention given to a party or a candidate, good or bad, tends to result in a rise in the polls. Harper has everyone attacking him, and he keeps his composure and looks like a leader. It's optics. If he had lost his composure, he would TANK in polls.

          Then again, I am not doing any research and I'm spouting more conjecture than fact.

          • This appears to be the case, combined with he fact that some of the attacking seems desperate. . .

          • So logically, you must think CPC have really been wasting their time and money running attack ads on Ignatieff all these months?

  10. Love the title, Mr.Coyne:

    "Commies leading Traitors! A special investigation!"

    Sincerely,

    A Fundamentally Fabulous Fascist Female

    ps: Leader May says she's smokin 'm!

    • you are female?

      • :)

        Yup, always have been! (I talk a little too rough for a lady…. :) )

        Was nice meeting you (and others) here on the postings, but I've come to the end of the line here for a while, the web that is. As of tomorrow I'll be swinging a hammer and holding a paintbrush for a few months, building a new place to live in, and I won't have access to the net for a while.

        And if things go steady as they have been going for the past few weeks, I'm sure there will be a positive outcome for the Conservatives and for Canada on May 2.

        Can hardly wait for the election results to come in. Go get 'm Harper!

        • It was nice to have you here for the while. Later :)

  11. Well it was nice of Harper to answer more than five questions. On the other hand, he seemed to have a hard time with that one about his own coalition aspirations way back when.

  12. "That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed …. "

    Thomas Jefferson explains why coalition is non-starter if numbers stay similar as they are now. Majority of Canadians agree with Jefferson and there will be trouble if coalition takes power and tells Canadians to take long walk off short pier.

    Constituion, Parliament, meant to change with times and people now want say in government, it is not remotely good enough for coaltion to take power and claim it is not against rules.

    • Oh don't be daft

    • "deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed …."
      Or from 38% of the governed, anyway.
      Given how many times Harper has said that the election will result either in a Tory majority or in a coalition,and that he won't work with the other parties, it seems hard to believe that anyone who wants a Tory government would do anything except vote Tory this time round.
      So unless they get either a majority of the votes cast, or at least a parliamentary majority, it will be clear that the Tories have lost the consent of the governed.

    • Indeed, this great republic will never withstand coalitionism! Let us begin a grand inquiry and root out these mites who would gnaw away at our foundations!

    • Majority of the country prefers coalition to CPC majority.

      • that seriously depends on the make up of the 'coalition'. . .

        • If the Bloc is included it drops from 54% to 50% given margin of error, you can't say that's not a majority.

          • just out of curiosity, do you think that support would grow, or lessen, if it were to come to happen?

    • IF you are right (and it's a big if), then maybe the people will be sufficiently roused to insist on constitutional change. Until then, we are a constitutional monarchy governing ourselves according to parliamentary democracy. The people's remedy against an unpalatable coalition will be at the next general election.

  13. bergkamp

    Stop threatening reprisals (unspecified) if and when the majority that does not vote conservative finally gets to govern our country according to this country's Parliamentary system. Afte'r all, we've had to put up with you minority 'fascists' imposing your will for 5 years , most often without transparity or accountability .

    • Who is threatening anything?

      Are you one of these nervous ninnies who sees a conservative with a gun around each dark corner. You are projecting – I have noticed more chatter from liberals about 'conservatives' and guns the past few days than normal.

      It is to do with how bad Liberals are doing in polls and liberal anxiety – Libs might be third or fourth party in Parliament in a few weeks! No wonder liberals are feeling anxious, and violent, and projecting thoughts about 'conservatives' and violence.

    • "Afte'r all, we've had to put up with you minority 'fascists' imposing your will for 5 years , most often without transparity or accountability ."

      They are not my facists, they are our fascists. I did not vote for this party/leader/government, and I am guessing neither did you, but it is still our government. You are not living in an occupied country.

    • Afte'r (sic) all, we've had to put up with you minority 'fascists' imposing your will for 5 years ,

      I corrected bergkamp above, so shall I correct auntie-em-m here.

      A minority is incapable of imposing anything against the will of the rest of the House. Check your math.

  14. ^ It is NOT against the rules to form an alliance with another party. nor is it wrong. Thomas Jefferson has nothing to do with our system.

    Advance polling station was very busy today.

    • Glad to hear that. I did the Elections Canada office, myself. And even though I did it a few weeks ago now, I'm pleased to report I had to wait as someone else was voting.

    • Once the CPC advertising blitz starts on Monday, his numbers will go back to the 100.

  15. Loosen it? You want to spread it to the right?? It looks fine spread across the left and center!

  16. Journalist J. Ivison spent time out in the field, not behind a desk number crunching.
    So, imo, first hand 'seeing with his own eyes' far more reliable than election formulas and averages with a sizable amount of bias:

    "My conclusion is that Stephen Harper, the only leader with a realistic chance at ensuring Ottawa leaves people alone for the next four years,
    is set to win big.

    It sounds frivolous but I'm serious…."
    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/22/jo

  17. Mr Coyne,
    a situation where the GG would give (minority) PMSH an election instead of hand govt to Ignatieff:

    -Opps vote down an incumbent PM to precipitate election
    -2nd largest party 'loses' votes/seats in the election

    So guess is
    GG would likely instruct the Opps that one of them must get behind the minority Conservative govt or he calls an election,
    because he would not take govt from the winning 'incumbent' PM and hand it to a party leader who lost voter support.

    • If presented with a Dion-style signed agreement from all the opposition parties I don't think the GG would have any choice under any circumstance but to accept.

    • Are you really that ignorant to think that the GG would demand a party have confidence in someone they didn't?

  18. You know, you have to wonder what's going on over at Liberal party headquarters, because their guy Iggy actually hasn't run that bad of a campaign. His political communication skills have developed to a point where he's much better in this regard than Dion could ever hope to be. Although I thought his performance in the English debate was inconsistent, he held his own at times. The campaign itself seems to be a smoother operation than under Dion. Yet, heading into the final week of this campaign, here are the Liberals staring at the prospect of having to fend off Jack for second place. They must be asking themselves: How did it come to this? Sometimes you're just in the wrong place at the wrong time. That appears to be the story of Michael Ignatieff's foray into Canadian politics: At the wrong place at the wrong time.

    • A couple of provisos:

      a) His comments this week about forming a government. This was a rookie leader's mistake. He didn't want to answer the question. Once Mansbridge persisted, the educator in him must have felt compelled to give a thorough and correct answer, and he's probably paid for it.

      b) Again, I'll refer to the English leaders debates. There must be Liberal politicos out there who winced at much of Iggy's body language throughout that event. At one point, he was listening to an answer from Layton with one arm on his hip. Prime ministers just don't stand like that. I'm sorry.

      • I have a different theory:

        About half a year before the election call, and then at the onset of the election also, Ignatieff and the LPC had been held up superficially as a possible winner by some, but not all, of the msm.

        The first crack appeared when Ignatieff didn't want to answer the coalition question adequately enough. And when on day two of the campaign he did put forth a somewhat satisfactory explanation, various msm members shifted gear and started attacking Harper harshly on the 2004 agreement, which some msm members tried to paint as being similar to the 2008 coalition agreement. But the general public didn't buy that scenario.

        Then, about half way through the campaign, when Ignatieff seemed to pick up steam, the members of the msm who had held him up so superficially for some time, then decided that Ignatieff could stand on his own momentum and since some of the msm superficial optimism of Ignatieff has been so blatantly obvious, they then had to become more neutral in their reporting in order not to make a laughing stock of their own reporting.

        But Ignatieff could not hold onto the momentum (debates and not knowing which topic to push consistently) and from that point forward, the same members of the msm could not possibly try and superficially uphold Ignatieff's so-called winner image for a second time. It could not work for a second time.

        Layton and Harper were able to hold their own and possibly gain: Layton because since the Lib were basically running on a NDP platform anyways, why not let Layton present such policies, and Harper because the media has always been overly critical of Harper for years and years on end, and so Harper knows what he's up against. Ignatieff didn't.

        Add to that the fact that Ignatieff was not elected by the party membership, and that he's lived outside of Canada for most of his adult life, and here we are, wondering what the Liberal party stands for. There isn't much for Ignatieff to defend in the end, really.

        • The question then becomes: why were some members of the msm so willing to superficially uphold Ignatieff's image as the possible winner?

          I think that is because Ignatieff is an academic who also has a history in broadcasting. And since a lot of media personalities depend on academic input as well, they saw Ignatieff as being one of them. Some academics and media personalities have a certain vision of how Canada should be. But such is their vision and it does not really reflect the average Canadian's vision of the country.

          A particular segment of the Canadian msm has always considered Harper as to be an outsider; someone who was/is not really 'entitled', according to some I believe, to hold the office of PM.

          But the general public does not hold the same view as do those members of the msm. And so, in part, this election has been about a clash between particular members of the media and the general public at large.

        • I think Iggy's first big mistake, and possible his biggest, was in 2009 when he declared that Harper's time is up and declared there would be an election. His declared reason was that he wanted to hand out more generous EI benefits, and I think that very few people thought that was a proper reason for an election, and in fact I'd guess that a majority thought that EI benefits were already quite generous, having already been increased by Harper.

          The public saw Ignatieff as self-serving and power-driven. It was less than a year after previous election, and people saw no reason for another one. His approval rating tanked and he never recovered.

          He's made one gaffe after another since then, while his Liberal party has appeared petty and arrogant in opposition.

          Ignatieff deserves what he's getting.

    • Ignatieff was running a great campaign, but around the debates he stopped running to be Prime Minister, and started running to be leader of the opposition.

      • I don't think it was a great campaign. It was a better-than-expected campaign that seemed to run out of steam in the wake of the debates. Combine that with a surging NDP in Quebec, and musings about losing parties forming government, and you have the potential makings of an existential Liberal crisis.

    • You're sexy when you're reasonable.

  19. Incidentally, anyone know how I can tighten up the layout on this table? Loosen! Now how do I loosen it!

    AC: Previously you had each table cell entry as part of a paragraph. Now that you've changed that, the cells have been tightened.

    The easy way to loosen the table is to add some cell spacing or cell padding on the entire table. Currently you have:
    cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0.

    Your html editor likely has this as an option somewhere for the table. In this case you probably want a non-zero cellpadding.

  20. Those projections are all very similar (except perhaps for Ekos).

    The last election had the same thing, and every projection underestimated the Conservative seat count by 10. http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html

    None of them want to go out on a limb.

    • If the polls predicting the CPC way out in front in the GTA are true (a big if), these seat predictors are useless.

      • The seat predictors are useless elsewhere too because the 3-way splits are unpredictable.

      • Have there been polls of the GTA? I've only numbers for Ontario. Nanos is showing Ontario giving Harper a bigger lead than 2008 though, with Iggy's recent slide.

        If we take the most recent Nanos poll, looks like the Cons might lose a few Quebec seats. But they are showing gains in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. BC looks the same.

        In Ontario, the 2008 win was 39.2 – 33.8 giving them 51 seats. The latest Nanos poll shows 44.4 – 32.9. That could easily send them another twenty seats. Ontario is the key. Chretien won 100 seats in Ontario with 49.5% of the vote. So this confirms your suggestion, there may be a couple dozen seats switching to Conservative in the GTA.

  21. .
    Nice to see a well-targeted lampoon of all the poll-drivel dumped on us by supposedly grown-up journalists. eg.

    'The most recent polls paint a clear picture of the size of the challenge facing the Liberals, but the actual nature of the challenge is subtle and complex…'
    .

  22. Mr. Coyne is labeling each of the contenders by the insults hurled at them. Nobody thinks he is accusing the Conservatives of being fascists. The labels are really making fun of the folks that use them, not the parties themselves.

    Also, if you are arguing that Harper is not a fascist, the fact that he has the support of 40% of the populace is pretty thin grist. People liked Mussolini for "making the trains run on time", and Hitler was a democratically elected chancellor (his party won as much as 43.9% of the vote in a multiparty race). The best evidence that Harper is not a fascist is the face that the basic liberties of Canadians not being trampled upon by the state, that we are having a free and fair election, and that we continue to be governed by the rule of law.

    • Unfortunately, that evidence has only presented itself in a minority situation. As a CPC cabinet minister said, "Once we come back with a majority, all bets are off!"

      • It is possible that Harper will turn Canada into crazytown, if given a majority, but I don't think it is likely. Harper's mission appears to be to gradually make Canada a more Conservative place – to set up winning conditions for future Tory majorities, while quietly moving power out of Ottawa.

        Lets imagine the fears of the left were all true – Harper gutted abortion laws, got rid of gay marriage (I'm guessing the first two would run afoul of the supreme court), and slashed healthcare spending (which would be at cross-purposes with Harper's longstanding agenda of devolving more power to the provinces). Clearly, Harper (or his successor) would lose the next election, and whatever party came in could reverse the changes.

        The reality – of a slow evolutionary move towards a more conservative Canada – should actually be more frightening for the left, because if successful it holds the promise of lasting change. Change that could persist, even if the Liberals or NDP were to take power. It is easy to clean up the mess left by the right-wing barbarians at the gates. It is much harder to undo a conservative Canada, when YOU are perceived as the barbarian, threatening Canada's "foundational" institutions.

        • why anyone could give this a 'thumbs down' is beyond me. (I put you back to +1) Whatever side of the political fence you are on, this is an accurate assessment of reality. You are just stating what is fact.

          I would imagine the people who gave you the thumbs down are the people who are running around saying Harper is going to destroy Canada. Your view doesn't fit in nicely with their scare tactic.

        • No, he's not going to slash health-care spending, he's going to gut the Health Care act which prevents facilities from mixing private and public.

          No, he's not going to gut abortion laws, we don't have any, remember? He's going to add abortion laws. Specifically, I would imagine acts which make it a criminal offense to harm a foetus, which will have no exceptions for doctors unless the mother's life is at risk.

          He'll blow out the government's budget while at the same time making government less and less transparent so that we can't see what he's doing or what he's spending on. Untendered contracts will become the norm, not the exception.

          Corporate and individual tax cuts would accelerate, and since provincial taxes are based on a percentage of federal taxes, the provinces would be increasingly squeezed on social welfare, which will have the happy side-effect, for him, of providing more criminals to fill the new PPP jails he'll be creating.

          Expect increased legislation against drugs, less protection of human rights, zero activity on environmental concerns, and increased subsidies to oil industries.

          The rich will make huge gains under Mr. Harper while the rest of us will be told to pound sand, since if the rich have money, then we're all supposed to get one of the jobs that they're supposedly creating. (Never mind that rich people don't get that way by creating jobs when there's no demand..)

          But wait, wont' that hurt his chances in election? Well.. I would be unsurprised if in addition to removing the per-vote subsidy, he also passed legislation, close to the end of his term, which would require that parties demonstrate financial stability — meaning no debt — to Elections Canada in order to receive expense reimbursement. Such legislation might eventually be struck down by the courts, but he'd get at least one additional term out of it.

  23. Andrew,

    It might be useful to separate the EKOS and ElectionAlmanac.com projections from the rest, as they are based on a single poll rather than an average of polls like the others.

    I'll also shameless plug my own projection blog: http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.com/
    I provide daily projections, and even occasional comments about economic policy.

  24. One wonders why Andrew deliberatey refrained from adding the Ipsos poll. I say deliberately because he tweeted about it.

    He includes the improbable low ones, yet omits one from a respectable polling firm that doesn’t fit the preferred Ottawa narrative.

    If one chooses to take a close look at what is happening in the GTA, Ipsos looks far more realistic than the rest. Regrettably, a media seemingly intent on propping up Liberals’ hopes, casts their collective gaze away from this all important area.

    Andrew, if an Ipsos poll happens in a partisan media forest, did it really happen?

    • Couple of things wrong with your point:

      The Ipsos poll didn't have seat projections. Seat projections were provided to the Ottawa Citizen by a third-party website based on the one Ipsos poll.

      Two, those projections, which showed a Tory majority, also showed the BQ picking up just four seats — a result that isn't consistent with reality, and that's the reason why nobody, other than the Citizen, gives any credence to the results.

    • Further to Gored, I think the methodology of the Ispos poll differs from those of the other polls. They extrapolate undecideds/leanings based on how people feel about the leader. But of course, we vote for representatives, not leaders.

      • Many people vote for the leader or the party, without specific regard for the local candidate, so basing voting profiles according to leadership doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

        In fact, how many people could name the local candidate for their chosen party? Moreover, party affiliations do not disappear in ridings if the candidate steps down.

  25. For Canadians living in the Eastern, Atlantic, and Newfoundland time zones: play the game of Coyne. It's like some Lord-of-the-Rings/Dungeons-and-Dragons mish-mash. Become a Fascist, Visitor, Commie, Ewok, or Hermit. Report your progress. This game can be played on Twitter or Facebook.

  26. I agree with Don Bassilo..and give Polls(?) credence – indeed – at first I felt repulsion at the sight of the table and I did avoid it…so Mr Coyne, how to fix your table; PLEASE DELETE IT – and then PERM. DELETE. THANKS.

  27. Andrew,

    I really liked this bit, and hope you don't get dumped on for your use of 'traitors, visitors, etc.' I think it is pretty humorous, and shows how each party would like us to view their opposition.

    I would like to make a suggestion. You put out a piece a few days ago, that had the % of the possibility of each outcome. Would that be hard to update every couple of days, as the polls update? We won't hold you to the predictions, but it would be interesting to see which scenario actually ends up happening.

    Either way, you and Paul have been doing a bang up job. You can rest in a few days :)

  28. Folks, call me paranoid, but I think there's A LOT more to the Coup/Coalition than meets the eye. And it's not good. For those interested in stopping the hijacking of OUR democracy, please give a gander at: "The Real Co-Conspirators Behind the Coup":
    http://burpnrun.blogspot.com/2011/04/real-co-cons

    and tell me if I'm wrong. Please.

    • Wow… "Coup"…. I am not sure if acting strictly within the constitutional and legal framework constitutes a coup.

      It is Paranoid if they aren't actually out to get you. Put your tinfoil hat back on.

  29. This 60% vs. 40% left-wing 'majority' isn't a fair comparison, since the various parties on the left can each narrow-cast a message and so cover more political territory. If there was one united party of the left it would undoubtedly leak votes on its right to the Conservatives (pulling them closer to the centre), while some on the left would leave mainstream politics. It's not hard at all to imagine a united-left party losing +10% of the electorate (right-leaning Liberals and Bloquistes) to the Conservatives, making them the clear majority party.

    When the right united it lost a great many voters at both its flanks, and I think the Alliance and PCs had a lot more in common than do the Liberals/NDP/Bloc/Greens.

    • Whenever parties merge there is always concern they will 'leak' some members….but if we never merged parties, we'd never change anything.

      It all works out in the end. Especially since left and right are dead terms these days.

  30. Huh. 60% of Canadians don't want Harper to be PM, so obviously that's democracy in action.

    Yet 76% don't want Iggy, 71% don't want Layton, no one even knows who, or what, May is, and 78% don't have any call about Duceppe. That, however, is proof positive that Canadians want the left to lead the country. Leftist ideology in action.

    • But those other parties are on what you call the left….so it's still 60-40 against the right.

  31. Layton Mania !

    Jack won the debates for me, no other leader can touch Jack as an average Joe Canadian you can TRUST.

    I was considering voting Liberal(ABHarperRegime), but when Jack mentioned the Liberal leaders lack of attendance it really hit a nerve for me, as I've always thought to myself that I just cant picture Iggy sitting their in opposition if he looses the leadership?, I think he'll be long gone back to his American home.

    The hardest working MP in Parliament, bar none.

  32. You must be fun at parties, deleted6252769.

  33. Mark this down.

    My prediction is;

    Conservatives – 161
    Liberals – 67
    NDP – 41
    BQ – 38
    Ind – 1

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