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CONTROL vs. Ekos: Sorry about that, chief


 

36-24-19-11-10

Since Monday, by Ekos’ measure, the Conservatives’ lead has grown from 7 to 12 points. More here.


 
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CONTROL vs. Ekos: Sorry about that, chief

  1. Polls. They’re more confused than Stephane Dion AND Mike Duffy’s journalistic integrity COMBINED!

  2. If that’s not a trend, I don’t know what is.

  3. Paul I heard about your comments regarding the robo dialing (didn’t read it but a friend told me).

    What are your thoughts on the fact that a person would be much more willing to tell a machine they’re not voting, than a human – it’s embarrassing to many.

    Turnout/who will vote,

    is going to be THE driver of who wins this election.

    If that’s a big factor, do you not think it possible that Ekos is the most accurate?

  4. Not sure it’s a “fact” that people will be more honest with a robo-dialer than a human, but I think it’s entirely possible, kody. We won’t know until Tuesday, and even then we won’t really know, because the poll blackout leaves a gap between the last poll and the results — and people’s opinions can change during those no-polling days.

  5. I agree.

  6. BTW,

    when does the poll blackout begin (our heroine is going to be taken from us?????)

  7. Not soon enough.

  8. Well, phew, ‘cuz that will give the media even more time to shower itself with glory by focussing on issues that matter to the national interest…

  9. “If that’s not a trend, I don’t know what is.”

    That’s the second most fatuous comment I’ve read this week.

  10. Ekos has the Cons holding or going up, and the Libs holding or going DOWN, in every region since Monday. In other words, where Cons were ahead they’ve widened their advantage, and where Libs were ahead their lead has shrunk.

    How to square this with Nanos showing the Cons far behind where they were on Oct. 1? (posted below under “Regions”) Maybe methodology makes the two pollsters impossible to compare. Or maybe the Liberals had made serious gains by Monday that are already falling away.

  11. Nanos Regions poll is Oct 4th to Oct 8th … and in the regular Nanos there are no significant changes since Monday …

    Maybe is NOT a good idea to finish polling at 8:00 p.m for a 10:00 p.m. result, you might miss some demographics …

  12. Wacky pollsters.

    H-D shows us numbers that are consistent with a Liberal victory, if half of the Green vote breaks for the Liberals at the last moment. EKOS shows us a potential Conservative majority.

  13. Nanos Regions compares Oct. 4-8 with the five-day period that ended Oct. 1.

  14. Or maybe the Liberals had made serious gains by Monday that are already falling away.

    That strikes me as the most plausible theory. It defied logic to believe that Stephen Harper was going to cruise through this entire campaign without running into some turbulence, and without people at least considering their options. They did so, but with nothing to sustain their interest people’s temporary look at the Liberals was precisely that, temporary.

    I hate to keep harping back to ’88, but this seems somewhat similar to the boomlet Turner had then during mid-campaign. For a while, it looked like the Liberals had growth and momentum, and the Tories were seriously spooked. That campaign, like this one, started out with a Liberal leader who looked weakened by poor polls and internal dissent. The governing party had every step mapped out, and seemed to be in cruise control. All of a sudden, the Liberals caught fire, the Mulroney campaign started taking on water, and everyone got themselves all lathered up. Just just as pollsters started looking for evidence that the Liberal surge had taken hold, though, it began to fade away, and the campaign ultimately returned to the same set of numbers with which it opened. I suspect the same thing is happening here.

  15. Is tomorrow the last day of polling?

    I notice Ekos has no “undecided” while Nanos has between 14-15% undecided.

    Could that not be the discrepancy? Maybe the Ekos poll does not give “undecided” as an option on the robo-dial?

  16. I didn’t check the numbers, but the Ekos analysis suggests that people are starting to make up their mind. It’s sometimes hard to separate science from opinion when it comes to pollsters.

    If you’re going to ban polls, why not do it for the entire campaign?

  17. Dennis, are you suggesting that this country isn’t trampling on freedom of expression enough?

    Yikes.

  18. Well, at least banning it for the entire campaign wouldn’t be arbitrary, would it?

    Yikes.

  19. I have always had great esteem Steve Murphy and Mike Duffy’s ethics, but playing that tape has changed my respect for them
    I have a son who is hearing impaired and he must listen so intently he frequently has migraines. .. Steve asked a question with various tenses .which was confusing given the second language and hearing issue. He actually gave a short speech rather than ask a straight forward question.

    You and CTV should re think your actions. Surely given the issues facing the Canadian people you could do better? I now understand why Mr. Harper denies the media access!

    mathilda

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