35

CrepEKOScular variations (35/24/20/11/10)


 

National Federal Vote Intention

Conservatives: 35 (+1)

Liberals: 24  (-1)

NDP: 20 (-)

Greens: 11 (-)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-)

Set the twilight reeling.


 

CrepEKOScular variations (35/24/20/11/10)

  1. Look at that…another poll. How underwhelming…

  2. I just listened to Dion being interviewed on The National with Peter Mansbridge. I hope people really listened to his answers because that man is going to drive our economy into the ground.

  3. Ha ha yeah, that’s true. Was it the IMF that said that Canada will have the highest GDP growth of the G7 in 2009?

    If that’s true, the Liberals will surely take credit. If not, they’ll blame the Tories.

  4. An 11 point spread. Polls seem to be all over the place. Looks like Tuesday could be a big surprize!

    Also did anyone catch the news clippings of Frank McKenna saying the “fundamentals of Canada’s economy are strong”. I bet Dion didn’t like hearing him say that!

  5. Riley, i’s not just McKenna. Chretien and Manley were out with similar comments. Add to that, RBC and the IMF project 1.2% and 1.5% growth in 2009 (in IMF’s case, dwarfing all other G7 nations).

  6. Thats interesting- and completely irrelevant. I still maintain that even Lord Nick is irrelevant.
    I h i g h l y doubt that the results on election day willl bare even a passing resemblance to the polls.

  7. AMartin on Wednesday, October 8, 2008 at 10:02 pm:

    I just listened to Dion being interviewed on The National with Peter Mansbridge. I hope people really listened to his answers because that man is going to drive our economy into the ground”

    He was Way better than sweater/mummy help me Harper who will take us to hell if elected.

    Good by Harper, Canadians are seeing trough that vest. The lying is over.

  8. Good evening folks. This poll has a sample of 3,178, nearly three times the size of the Nanos poll.

    Hill Knowlton results:

    Conservatives 139
    Liberals 72
    NDP 45
    Bloc 51
    Other 1

    Too little, too late for the Libs.

  9. An Ekos poll?

    LOL! so biased.

  10. Hey gang,

    I’m too steamed at the media to comment much on this poll (ya, I’m that steamed).

    I could gloat.

    I could taunt my liberal friends here.

    But the reality is the polls are all over the place and I would put as much stock in this one as in Nanos’.

    The above comments above I agree with. The one this that’s certain is Tuesday will certainly be interesting.

    cheers.

    PS,

    for those interested in my rant, check out Paul Well’s comment thread below.

    Have a great night,

    and keep up the faithful pollposting Kady (I’m assuming you’re still up for a friendly seat projection competition?)

  11. There is so much variation between one company and another in this barrage of polls that the polls have become almost meaningless

  12. Ring, ring, why don’t you give me a call?
    Ring, ring, the happiest sound of them all
    Ring, ring, I stare at the phone on the wall
    And I sit all alone impatiently
    Won’t you please understand the need in me
    So, ring, ring, why don’t you give me a call?
    So, ring, ring, why don’t you give me a call?

  13. The poll sample for Ontario in this Ekos poll is 1,008 with a margin of error of 3.1 which is way more accurate than Nanos’ margin for Ontario. What does Ekos report on the race for Ontario, which most of us here agree is where this thing will ultimately be decided? It says this:

    Conservatives 36
    Liberals 32
    NDP 19
    Green 13

    The Conservatives lead is above the margin of error, hence they are clearly in the lead here.

    To remind Blog Central readers, the Conservatives got 35 in Ontario last go-round while the Liberals got 40. Unless the Liberals can turn this around in the next few days, Garth Turner and Company will be looking for a new line of work.

  14. One last post about British Columbia. In the last election the Conservatives got 17 seats there to the Liberals 9 and the NDP’s 10. The percentage of the popular vote in 2006 was as follows:

    Conservatives 37
    Liberals 28
    NDP 29
    Green 5

    Tonight’s Ekos has the score at:

    Conservatives 42 (+5)
    Liberals 19 (-9)
    NDP 26 (-3)
    Green 13 (+8)

    The “Quadra effect”, a.k.a. vote-splitting on the left, will eviscerate the Libs in B.C. Plus they’ve tasted carbon taxes in B.C. and voters are giving it a big thumbs down. These two phenomena account for the 9% drop.

    Mark my words, Blog Central readers, you’ll be able to count Lib seats east of the Ontario-Manitoba border on one hand. They’ll likely have three in total, down from 13.

    Ekos’s margin of error for the B.C. sample is plus or minus 4.0.

  15. “Mark my words, Blog Central readers, you’ll be able to count Lib seats east of the Ontario-Manitoba border on one hand. ”

    Either you think I am a many-fingered mutant, Harper will finally sweep the 416, or you misspoke.

  16. er… I think Jarrid meant west of the border…. and I think that sounds about right.

  17. Jarrid meant west of the Ontario-Manitoba border, indeed.

  18. comment by mungman on Wednesday, October 8, 2008 at 11:52 pm:

    er… I think Jarrid meant west of the border…. and I think that sounds about right.
    Report Abuse
    ==========

    obviously he also meant Cons seats not Libs, there ya go conbots, all fixed up, now go to bed big daddy will soothe you in the morn, bwahahaha.

  19. Jarrid: “The Conservatives lead is above the margin of error, hence they are clearly in the lead here.”

    Um, no. The Conservatives’s range of support based on the margin is 33-39%. The Liberals’s range of support based on the margin of error is 29-35%.

    If the Conservatives are at the bottom of their range, and the Liberals are at the top of their range, then the Liberals are leading 35-33.

  20. Up eleven points with five days to go. Clearly, its armaggedon for the conservatives.

    If only Bruce Willis and his band of dipshit drillers were here, we’d have a media narrative.

  21. Let’s all calm down on the polls. The “margin of error” refers to that pesky 19 times out of 20. In other words, the plus or minus 3.1% in the Ontario poll means that we are 95% confident that the CPC is between 32.9% and 39.1%. Moreover, we are 68% confident that the CPC is between about 34.4% and 37.6% We are 68% confident the LPC is between 30.4% and 33.6%. We are about 85% confident that AMONG DECIDED VOTERS, CPC is leading LPC in Ontario. But, there is about a 15% chance that the LPC leads the CPC.

    Note the capitals. This excludes undecideds. What percentage of Ontarians are undecided? 10%? 15%? Are they trying to decide between Green and Conservative? NDP and Bloc? Neo-Rhino and Independent? Do we know anything about this group? Is it not highly possible that these voters are trying to decide which of the non-con parties to support? We don’t know.

    All we know is that (if the poll is not biased) (and if it was adjusted properly for demogaphics) (and if cell-phone-only users are exactly the same as land-liners) that there is a good chance the Conservative have a small lead among decided voters in Ontario with a full week left before the vote, prior to having seen the platform, prior to absorbing Harper’s recent comments on the economy, prior to……… We know nothing. Don’t kid yourselves. It’s anyone’s game.

  22. This is the ONLY poll pointing to good news for the Conservatives. I wouldn’t put too much stake in it. I still think Dion is going to squeeze out a minority victory. Too many stars aligned against Harper now. People tend not to vote for incumbents in times of economic turmoil. It’s just the nature of the beast. With the weak campaign the Tories have run, and with Dion finally finding his legs (who’d have ever thought that would happen?) I doubt the Conservatives can turn it around. But you never know. I could just be a babbling know-nothing idiot.

  23. Minority victory?

    Libs better hope that one of these polls starts to show them ahead.

    By Saturday, if the Libs are still 4 points behind, they won’t be able to hope for any kind of government.

  24. My my – the Conbots are troubled this morning – aren’t they…
    signs of panic…sighting of whites of eyes…
    And still six more days of slide to go…
    and the Afghanistan costs come out today – numbers as high as $20 billion (one number a few weeks ago was $30 billion)…
    Heck – once the media has masticated those…
    Peter McKay could be joining messrs. Lunn and Fortier in going down…

  25. Sixty percent of the Liberal party is panicking right now.

    They were supposed to keep Harper to a minority, dump Dion and march onward to a Majority in a few months after getting a brave new leader.

    Dion staying around leading a razer thin minority in an economic slowdown, with flush with cash Conservative opposition able to take down the Libs at their choosing,

    shades of Joe Clark.

  26. comment by Wascally Wabbit on Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 8:47 am: “and the Afghanistan costs come out today – numbers as high as $20 billion (one number a few weeks ago was $30 billion)…”

    T.O.Star headline $20 billion – fine print actual cost $28 billion and this is Redeau Institute costing and not the Federal Watchdog Report promised but hidden ?

    Will the Federal Watchdog Report be released today or before election ?

  27. Kady : Could you please expand on your quote and why their report is so muddied ?
    “According to the buzz in the corridor, apparently, the guys who actually found the discarded documents will be on hand as well, which isn’t really a surprise, since one of them—Anthony Salloum, a former NDP communications director—now works for the Rideau Institute. Which is invariably described as a “left-leaning” think tank, so far be it from me to break new ground. I doubt they mind, really.”

  28. “I’ll bet that the Centre for Excrements could create a ‘peer-reviewed’ article about the highly increased prevalence of HIV and Hep C” resulting from the site, says a May 26, 2007, e-mail.

    In another e-mail, dated May 5, 2008, RCMP Constable Chuck Doucette, since retired from the force, encourages more than a dozen contacts — including Colin Mangham, the author of a widely publicized 2007 report that questioned Insite’s effectiveness — to call a radio show on which Constable Doucette had been booked as a guest to discuss Insite.

  29. “Dion staying around leading a razer thin minority in an economic slowdown, with flush with cash Conservative opposition able to take down the Libs at their choosing,””shades of Joe Clark.”

    The liberals do not have a “truth and right thinking” dept . Further Joe Clark like Stephane Dion is truthfull , honourable and takes character assasignation from straussonions of Calgary Inc. .

  30. comment by Riley Hennessey on Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 7:38 am:

    Majority victory?

    CPC better hope that one of these polls starts to show them ahead comfortably again.

    My gawd, I can’t believe we were so arrogant and condescending to the rest of Canada, our divisive politics and lack of substance have really hurt us….and Harper, jeesh like the Republicans down South we were really taken in by the cult of personality, I’m ashamed.
    =============

    There fixed it for ya!!! :)

  31. “CPC better hope that one of these polls starts to show them ahead comfortably again.”

    You mean other than the one we’re discussing on this thread?

  32. outlier, plus partisan bias byt the pollster….see how easy it is to be a Conbot?

    oh wait, almost forgot media bias as well!!!

    now wheres my tinfoil hat dammit.

  33. D jones wrote
    “Canadians are seeing trough that vest. The lying is over.”

    It’s a “sweater” this time around, man try to keep up.
    The “vest” you ignorantly allude to is from 3 years ago , rememeber , from the Calgary stampede.
    This time your fashion conscience team of leaders political points are being made on a “sweater”.
    Four years from now maybe you can score some political points on something other than what you can glean from Queer Eye for a Straight Guy.
    Or not.

  34. oh yah Reg, sorry maybe its not as easy as I thought…

    I forgot to hurl personal insults at everyone that disagrees with me and then throw in a couple of threats of the West separating….still learning though :)

  35. Jarrid is right – after the polls close and the numbers start coming in the map on the wall behing the pundits will have decidedly far fewer LPC seats west on Ontario especially in BC the official colours of BC will be Blue and a lot more Orange (why orange ndp?)

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