Well, compared to last week’s down-to-the-decimal-point photo finish:
Well, compared to last week’s down-to-the-decimal-point photo finish:
Conservatives: 34.2 (+1.6)
Liberals: 30.8 (-1.8)
NDP: 14.8 (-1.7)
Bloc Quebecois 39.8 (+7.5)
Green: 10.1 (+0.2)
Undecided/Ineligible: 14.9 (-0.3)
MoE: 2.01
Raw data tables — no, not the really good stuff, alas — available here, courtesy of CBC.
So, what’s changed? Unfortunately, the regionals don’t tell us much, although ITQ still has to work out the +/-s for those results; despite the many hints she’s not so much dropped as hurled forcefully in their direction, EKOS still doesn’t include the week-to-week differences. There’s nothing that really jumps out at first glance, though, other than Atlantic Canada turning into what could be a very interesting three-way race — the orange bloom is still on the NDP rose according to these numbers — and both the Liberals and the Conservatives dropping in Quebec.
Meanwhile, the weekly bonus question is back — hurray! — and gets a predictable response when it asks whether respondents believe an election should be held this fall, or at a “later time”: 72.1 percent want to hit the snooze button, and only 27.9 percent — and just 40 percent of Liberal supporters — are keen to go now, now, now! (Somewhat awesomely, if inexplicably, 20.4 percent of undecided voters agree with them. Hey, why put off that lack of decision?)
On a related note, is anyone else sick to death of hearing about how Hill reporters Canadians don’t want a fall election, because we’re broke and it’s expensive to cover a campaign and the food is awful and the hours are long and it’s boring and waaaaaaaaahh they just don’t, okay? ITQ has to wonder how much our growing horror at the prospect of being herded back onto campaign buses is driving that particular number, as far as public opinion. Not that certain political parties aren’t above taking advantage of that message track if it suits their pre-writ runup, of course. Oh, democracy. It’s not you; it’s us.
Anyway, I’ll update this post with the full regional breakdowns just as soon as the math part of my brain wakes up, but feel free to start the discussion without it.
UPDATED – As promised, full regional breakdowns — after the jump:
British Columbia (MoE 5.73)
Conservatives: 34.9 (-0.4)
Liberals: 31.3 (+6.4)
NDP: 20.9 (-4.6)
Green: 12.9 (-1.4)
Alberta (MoE 6.39)
Conservatives: 56.8 (+1.4)
Liberals: 18.4 (-7.3)
NDP: 14.8 (+4.0)
Green: 10.0 (+1.9)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 8.25)
Conservatives: 49.4 (+3.1)
Liberals: 25.9 (+7.3)
NDP :16.2 (-8.3)
Green: 8.5 (-0.6)
Ontario (MoE 3.24)
Conservatives: 38.4 (+5.3)
Liberals: 36.5 (-3.9)
NDP: 13.7 (-1.9)
Green: 11.4 (+0.5)
Quebec (MoE 3.93)
Bloc Quebecois: 39.8 (+5.5)
Liberals: 27.8 (-3.1)
Conservatives: 15.5 (-3.9)
NDP: 9.8 (-)
Green: 7.0 (-0.6)
Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.39)
Conservatives: 31.0 (+3.5)
Liberals: 32.2 (-1.9)
NDP: 26.5 (-3.5)
Green: 10.4 (+2.0)
AGGGGHHHH! The Liberals have collapsed in Alberta! MISSION GOVERNMENT-BRING-DOWN-NOW CANCELLED! ABORT! ABORT!
On the other hand, it appears that the anti-Ignatieff virus has been contained by the provincial border, since the good people of both British Columbia and Saskitoba are apparently leaping aboard the Liberal love train, although most appear to be deserters from the NDP. (Take heart, Dippers: Albertans love you four percent more than last week.)
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are creeping upwards in Ontario, mostly at the expense of the Liberals — take that, Dalton McGuinty! — and in Atlantic Canada, although as noted above, according to these numbers, reports of the death of the Orange Wave may have been at least slightly exaggerated.
As for Quebec, it’s — well, Quebec. The only party going anywhere but down is the Bloc Quebecois.