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EKOS Weekly: Apocalypse? We’ve all been there. (36/29.7/13.9/10.5/39.6)


 

And this, EKOS respondents, is no apocalypse. It’s barely even a blip. Given all the storm and fury over the latest Liberal meltdown, and the even more keen than usual anticipation with which we were awaiting today’s weekly numbers, it’s hard not to see this as a little bit of a letdown, frankly: we media types worked our fingers to the bone trying to whip you into a frenzy over the latest Liberal leadership crisis, and this is the thanks we get?

On the plus side, this week’s bonus round — which included a hodgepodge of questions on Afghanistan, the environment and mandatory voting laws, of all things — is so fascinating that it deserves a post of its very own, although that involves writing it first, so expect one later this morning.

First, though, the national numbers (MoE 1.9):

Conservatives: 36.0 (-1.0)

Liberals: 29.7 (-0.2)

NDP: 13.9 (+0.1)

Green: 10.5 (+0.3)

Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 39.6 (+3.2)

Undecided: 14.3 (-1.3)

Since ITQ has, it appears, turned into an insufferable snob when it comes to poll numbers that haven’t at the very least been broken down by region, she has nothing much to say about the national trend, other than that the only party that appears to have had a truly good week is the Bloc Quebecois, and even that wasn’t nearly as much at the expense of other parties — read: Liberals — as some of us were expecting, particularly when you consider that EKOS was in the field for the climax and aftermath of L’Affaire Coderre.

On that note, let’s move onto the regional results:

British Columbia (MoE 5.2)

Conservatives: 37.4 (+3.2)

Liberals: 25.0 (+0.8)

NDP: 23.3 (-0.8)

Green: 14.3 (-3.3)

Alberta (MoE 6.4)

Conservatives: 63.1 (+0.5)

Liberals: 16.0 (-3.1)

NDP: 10.1 (+1.7)

Green: 10.8 (+0.9)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 7.2)

Conservatives: 48.8  (+1.7)

Liberals: 26.2 (+5.5)

NDP: 20.0 (-3.8)

Green: 5.0 (-3.4)

Ontario (MoE 3.0)

Conservatives: 40.2 (-1.6)

Liberals: 35.7 (+0.6)

NDP: 13.4 (+1.5)

Green: 10.8 (-0.4)

Quebec (MoE 3.7)

Bloc Quebecois: 39.6 (+3.2)

Liberals: 26.4 (-2.2)

Conservatives: 16.6 (-2.8)

NDP: 8.2 (-1.1)

Green: 9.2 (+3.0)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 7.4)

Liberals: 40.7 (-0.4)

Conservatives: 28.7 (-3.0)

NDP: 18.9 (-0.3)

Green: 11.7 (+3.8)

So — Conservatives up in the West, particularly Battleground-to-be BC, which is almost certainly due to the flurry of stimulicious spending announcements during the break week, but down-ish in Ontario, Quebec and the east. Meanwhile, the Liberals in a statistical holding pattern pretty much everywhere, including – yes – Quebec, where the party dropped two points that, honestly, they couldn’t really afford to lose, but is likely a relief considering how bad it could have been. Oh, and the NDP continues to drift ever so slightly downwards in Atlantic Canada, but more than made up for that in Ontario and  — oh, wait, that’s Alberta. Never mind.

Other than that? Not much change from last week, even before you take the margin of error into account.

Finally, since there was so much ado last week over the seemingly unstoppable Tory takeover of Toronto — take that, Rosedale Gang! — here are the numbers for “metropolitan Canada”:

Vancouver (MoE 9.1)

Conservatives: 40.2 (+5.9)

Liberals: 26.5 (+1.3)

NDP: 20.7 (-3.5)

Green: 12.5 (-3.7)

Calgary (MoE 12.6)

Conservatives: 62.0 (+4.3)

Liberals: 19.6 (-11.8)

NDP: 3.0 (-0.2)

Green: 15.0 (+7.2)

Toronto (MoE 5.6)

Liberals: 43.3 (+5.1)

Conservatives: 38.1 (-3.8)

NDP: 11.2 (-0.2)

Green: 7.4 (-2.1)

Ottawa (MoE 8.0)

Conservatives: 43.4 (-11.6)

Liberals: 39.3 (+11.0)

NDP: 10.0 (+0.2)

Green: 7.2 (-1.0)

Montreal (MoE 5.6)

Bloc Quebecois: 34.5  (-2.0)

Liberals: 31.7 (+2.2)

Conservatives: 14.2 (-2.2)

NDP: 7.3 (-2.2)

Green: 12.3 (+4.1)

ITQ would never be so rude as to point out that, well, she told y’all not to read too much into last week’s results, mostly because she knows all too well the temptation to draw vast conclusions from notoriously mercurial microsamples, but does wish to draw your attention to the Ottawa numbers, if only to demonstrate why one should try to resist, at least when it comes to the sub-sub-tables.

A week ago, the Conservatives had seemingly seized the hearts and minds of the capital, and were holding a downright Alberta-esque twenty point lead over the Liberals. Today? Back to the usual five point gap, and if history is any guide, the Blues and the Reds will likely continue to swap the yellow jersey back and forth from week to week. (Look! A sports reference! Oh, those never work out well for ITQ; she’s fully expecting a painstaking explanation of how very inept a metaphor it is to show up in the comments within minutes.)

Oh, and check out Montreal, where, as seems to be the case for Quebec as a whole, the devastation that the implosion of the Coderre Affair was supposed to have wrought — or at least be in the process of wreaking —  on Liberal fortunes appears to have been slightly overstated, although it’ll be worth watching that number for the next few weeks to see if the promised plunge does take place, albeit with less dizzying speed.

Other than that, the city numbers seem to reflect provincial trends; the Conservatives are up in Vancouver and down – albeit not enough to lose sleep – in Ontario and Quebec. They may want to keep an eye on the Greens in Calgary, though — after all, no one saw Linda Duncan coming until it was too late. (Yes, ITQ is aware that happened in Edmonton, not Calgary, and yes, she’s kidding. Mostly.)

And with that, ITQ appears to be pretty much out of observations. Take it away, commenters!


 

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