0

UPDATED: EKOS Weekly: Wait, you’re saying we’re not supposed to watch the pot boil? That’s just crazy talk.


 

Look! Movement! Microscropic movement so far within the margin of error that it should probably have its own metananomargin of error, unless that would plunge us into an Escheresque nightmare of ever diminishing circles and possibly shred the very fabric of the space-time-weekly-tracking-poll continuum, yes, but still:

Conservatives – 32.6 (-0.2)
Liberals – 30.9 (+0.7)
NDP – 15.7 (-1.4)
Green – 11.3 (+0.3)
BQ – 9.5 (+0.8) (37.1) (+2.1)
Undecided – 15.1 (-0.7)

Let’s all give a warm macleans.ca welcome back from vacation to EKOS vice-president Paul Adams, who is apparently filling in for the still footloose and fancy free Frank Graves this week:

“All summer the race between the two major parties has been very close – at times within the margin of error,” said EKOS Executive Director, Paul Adams. “In recent weeks, however, the Conservatives have eked out a small numerical lead on the national numbers, based in part on an improvement in their fortunes in Ontario. Ontario was the key to the Liberals’ success in the Chrétien years and it is the key to the party’s future as well. The Liberals now appear to have given up the advantage they held in Ontario through most of the spring and early summer.”

The Liberals have also given up a larger lead to the BQ in Quebec than they usually have in recent
months.

Typically, Canadians – and the media – pay relatively little attention to politics during the summer months, which may account for the relative stability of public opinion since Parliament rose for its summer recess in June.

“None of the parties has had a breakout summer,” said Adams. “However, as the media has begun to rev up for the political season, many commentators have focused criticism on the Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff. Because he is relatively less well known to the public than the Prime Minister, he may be more vulnerable to negative commentary.”

Full regional breakdowns, but none of the good stuff that ITQ was totally hoping would become a regular feature HINT HINT EKOS/CBC, available — oh, huh. It’s not up on the EKOS site yet. Well, as soon as it is, I’ll update this post. Feel free to chat amongst yourselves while ITQ inflicts her mercurial math skill on the rest of the numbers.

UPDATE: Regional variations ahoy after the jump:

British Columbia (MoE 6.4 (-0.8))
Conservatives: 31.6 (+4.6)
Liberals: 28.3 (-1.9)
NDP: 27.2 (-0.2)
Greens: 12.9 (-0.7)

Alberta (MoE 7.7 (+0.4))
Conservatives: 59.3 (+0.4)
Liberals: 18.5 (+1.8)
NDP: 11.2 (-0.1)
Green: 11.0 (-2.2)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 10.1 (+0.6))
Conservatives: 44.7 (-5.9)
Liberals: 23.5 (+3.5)
NDP: 19.5 (-5.1)
Green: 12.2 (+5.5)

Ontario (MoE 3.6 (-0.1))
Conservatives: 37.0 (+1.6)
Liberals: 37.0 (+0.7)
NDP: 14. 2 (-1.7)
Green11.8 (-0.6)

Quebec (4.7 (-0.7))
Bloc Quebecois: 37.1 (+2.1)
Liberals: 26.2 (-1.5)
Conservatives: 15.0 (-1.5)
NDP: 11.1 (-1.7)
Green: 10.6 (-2.6)

Atlantic Canada (8.8 (-0.9))
Liberals: 43.5 (+11.0)
Conservatives: 26.5 (-4.2)

NDP: 21.8 (-0.9)
Green: 8.2 (+4.7)

UPDATED: Hooray! The PDF is up over at EKOS HQ!


 

Sign in to comment.