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UPDATED: EKOS Weekly (with bonus Nanos): WATCH OUT! It’s a runaway train!


 

Seven point lead! Seven point lead! Seven point one lead, even, if you want to get all decimal about it! Watch out, semi-mythical majority, the vote-seeking missile that is the Big Blue Machine is locked, loaded and ready to — inch ahead from last week by less than a full percentage point.

Not that they shouldn’t feel good about it, mind you — as any number of commenters will soon be along to point out, it’s the trend that counts, not the actual numbers, and that trend shows slow but steady growth by the Conservatives, while the Liberals remain frozen in amber. (Seriously, you guys, are you playing dead to lull the Tories into a false sense of security? Because at the moment, it’s just a little bit too convincing. Maybe twitch a finger or something, just so the audience knows there’s still a twist in the plot to come.)

And then there’s the NDP. Oh, NDP. After the last few polls showed no post-post-convention plunge despite your leader’s dithering, it was like a mantra: “Look! We’re not slumping! You all predicted slumpage, but hah! No slumpers we! Take that, corporate media! Today, Nova Scotia, tomorrow, the world!”  And then your party lost nine points in a week in Atlantic Canada. The End. On the plus side, look at where all that extra media fussin’ got Elizabeth May and the Greens in British Columbia — into the high teens, that’s where!  Start packing up that ministerial office, Gary Lunn!

Numbers first, followed by more caffeine and toasted pita-powered armchair analysis from ITQ — not to mention that extra dose of substance-fortified Nanos goodness teasered in the headline:

National voter intention (MoE 2.1)
Conservatives: 37 (+0.9)
Liberals: 29.9 (-)
NDP: 13.8 (-2.7)
Green: 10.2 (+1.2)
Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 36.4 (-2.5)
Undecided:  15.6 (+2.3)

… and the regional breakdowns:

British Columbia (MoE 5.9)
Conservatives: 34.2 (-1.8)
Liberals: 24.1 (-0.9)
NDP: 24.1 (-2.6)
Green: 17.6 (+5.3)

Alberta (MoE 6.8)
Conservatives: 62.6 (+2.5)
Liberals: 19.1 (+0.5)
NDP: 8.4 (-3.0)
Green: 9.9 (-)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 8.1)
Conservatives: 47.1 (+3.2)
Liberals: 20.7 (-5.1)
NDP: 23.8 (+3.7)
Green: 8.4 (-1.0)

Ontario (MoE 3.2)
Conservatives: 41.8 (+1.7)
Liberals: 35.1 (-0.4)
NDP: 11.9 (-3.5)
Green: 11.2 (+2.2)

Quebec (MoE 4.2)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.4 (-2.5)
Liberals: 28.6 (+1.5)
Conservatives: 19.4 (+3.4)
NDP: 9.3 (-1.2)
Green: 6.2 (-1.4)

Atlantic Canada (MoE 8.3)
Liberals: 41.1 (+3.6)
Conservatives: 31.7 (+3.0)
NDP: 19.2 (-9.0)
Green: 7.9 (+2.4)

UPDATE: Scroll down for metropolitan breakdown.

So — yeah, on the regional front, we see some fascinating shifts, although as usual, in most of the country, the margin of error is sufficiently daunting to make sweeping conclusions unwise, not that it’s ever stopped ITQ before, of course.

As noted above, it took a bit longer to show up in the EKOS numbers, but the Orange Dream appears to be over out East, at least for the moment: Nine points may be just outside the margin of error, and who knows what will happen when Premier Dex Dexter unveils his economic plan, but that’s an awfully big one-week drop. (Don’t y’all wish that they’d break down the Atlantic provinces? It seems so silly to treat it as a monolith, since it strikes ITQ that the regional differences between, say, New Brunswick and Newfoundland are far greater than those between Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Oh, now she’s going to hear from angry prairie residents, isn’t she?)

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Conservatives have been bouncing around that 16-19 percent point for a few weeks now, so it’s hard to know whether that represents a creeping resurgence, or just a statistical blip; Ontario continues to be a fairly close race, although the Tories appear to be settling into a five point lead provincially. It would be interesting to know just where the NDP is losing support, though. Has the labour   backlash over the EI package started to show up in the polls?

Moving west, the Liberals continue to go down, down, down in Saskitoba — again, it would be far more informative if we at least knew in which province that slide was taking place. Wherever it’s happening, the spoils seem to have been split between the Tories and the Dips.

Alberta, as usual, is boring, so let’s just skip it and move onto British Columbia, where the Greens have rocketed up to nearly 18 percent — seriously, is that all the May effect, or is this anti-HST movement driving people towards the one party that has never been in power, provincially or federally? Populists tend to appreciate that.

Finally, those Nanos numbers, which are probably being viewed with even more horror within the confines of the OLO boardroom than the EKOS results: Despite the best efforts of the Liberals to publicly, and at every opportunity, express grave doubt over the prime minister’s commitment to Sparkle Motion provide sound management and competent government, he’s still the leader most trusted on pretty much every issue that counts, from the economy to national unity to the environment. Yes, even the environment, although it’s possible that might change after this week’s performance — or non-performance — at the United Nations. Not that it matters, since as far as ITQ knows, the country is still officially in not-caring-about-the-environment mode, which is too bad for Jack Layton, since even he outranks Ignatieff on the enviro-trustability scale.

In fact, the only area in which Michael Ignatieff even comes close to the prime minister is national unity, which ITQ attributes almost entirely to his speechwriter. Also, you have to wonder whether this whole ‘play to the centre’ strategy is working, since it appears to have resulted in general eye-narrowing scepticism from both the left and the right.

Alright, commenters. Over to you!

UPDATE: Since some of y’all — hello Jarrid! — seem especially chuffed by the burst of Harpermania that is apparently sweeping downtown Toronto, here are the full results for what EKOS describes as “Metropolitan Canada”, although it’s not clear whether that may, in some cases, include suburban ridings —  with difference from last week and margins of error:

Vancouver (MoE 9.9)
Conservatives: 34.3 (-3.5)
Liberals: 25.2 (-3.4)
NDP: 24.2 (+1.8)
Green: 16.2 (+4.0)

Calgary (MoE 12.3)
Conservatives: 57.7 (-2.2)
Liberals: 31.4 (+8.1)
NDP: 3.2 (-5.5)
Green: 7.7 (+0.6)

Toronto (MoE 6.2)
Conservatives: 41.9 (+5.2)
Liberals: 37.2 (-2.5)
NDP: 11.4 (-2.2)
Green: 9.5 (-0.5)

Ottawa (MoE 8.2)
Conservatives: 55.0 (+12.1)
Liberals: 28.3 (-14.6)
NDP: 9.8 (-0.7)
Green: 6.8 (+3.1)

Montreal (MoE 6.4)
Bloc Quebecois: 36.5 (-1.6)
Liberals: 29.5 (-1.5)
Conservatives: 16.3 (+2.8)
NDP: 9.5 (+1.0)
Green: 8.2 (-0.3)


 

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