Fascist takeover! Or else a Commalition! Consensus at last!

Polls show the Fascists continuing their march on the capital while a Commie insurgency is brewing

All right, time for an updated roundup of the leading seat projections (with thanks to PunditsGuide for pointing out a couple I’d missed). The Fascists continue their remorseless march on the capital, with some projections having them already inside the gates. The Visitors, meanwhile, show no signs of coming back for anybody.

But the real story, of course, is the Commie insurgency: one particularly excitable forecaster, whose name I won’t Ekos, even predicts they will be leading a coalition government within the week. As always, the averages are a little more level-headed, with about 10 Traitors’ heads among the first to be leveled. Still no Ewocs sightings, however.

Fascists Visitors Commies Traitors Ewocs Hermits
Lispop 149 68 52 39 0 0
Ekos 131 62 100 14 0 1
308.com 151 75 36 45 0 1
ElectionAlmanac.com 143 78 48 39 0 0
Calgary Grit 158 64 42 42 0 0
DemocraticSpace.com 157 69 39 42 0 0
TooCloseToCall.ca 145 74 47 42 0 0
CdnElectionWatch 154 66 51 36 0 1
RidingByRiding.ca 144 62 64 37 0 1
The Mace 151 68 59 29 0 1
AVERAGE 147 68 55 36 0 1



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Fascist takeover! Or else a Commalition! Consensus at last!

  1. Democraticspace.com and Calgary Grit call for no winners in 1 and 2 ridings, respectively. By-elections already?!?!?!

    • Those would be either independents, or due to rounding error. My model is simulation based, so, for example, it might have the Tories at 157.7 or something of the sort.

  2. Lets see, according EKOS, Layton might be able give Chief Government Whip to MI, which would get him in the house more often.

    • Or MI will be whip for SH. Awwwwkward….

      • Well…there is some precedence…Dion was Harper's wimp.

  3. One of the most surprising things about the Ekos poll (aside from the wonky seat projection) is the Montreal breakdown. If Frank Graves is to be believed, Liberal support is 16% in Fortress Montreal, and NDP support is 42%.

    If these numbers are even close to being accurate, the Montreal Liberals (including Justin Trudeau, Marlene Jennings, Denis Coderre, Stephane Dion and Irwin Cotler) are in serious danger of losing their seats.

    • meh, they were just visiting anyway.

    • Which could be all the reason this country needs to have an election. Now, if we could also find a way to get rid of Rob Anders, that would be just swell.

    • I find that most pollsters don't have a good apparatus set up to properly take the pulse of Québec voters so I always take their Québec numbers with a huge grain of salt.

      Obviously as in the words of the old Buffalo Springfield song, "Something's happing her but what it is ain't exactly clear."

      We'll see what's going down on May 2nd.

    • "If these numbers are even close to being accurate, the Montreal Liberals (including Justin Trudeau, Marlene Jennings, Denis Coderre, Stephane Dion and Irwin Cotler) are in serious danger of losing their seats."

      I Is there any real evidence for liberal support cratering in Montreal? I find that hard to believe given the libs are generally seen since at least the Trudeau days as being the only real bulwark against the separatists. I find it hard to believe this can be changed by a glip, thoughtless promise from Layton to get Q's John Doe on the constitution. The last i heard the rise of the dippers might well aid folks like JT in fending off the BQ.

      • I think anytime you take national, or provincial "bulk" numbers and convert them into seats its a guessing game.

        Too many variables for averages to deal with. I suspect this is why Grave's Quebec seat count is so skewed.

  4. A fake lake to anyone who can explain today's Ekos poll, and a bonus gazebo to whoever can make sense of that crazy seat projection.

    • EKOS' projection gives 47 NDP seats outside Québec. That's an increase of 11 relative to 2008 – not very crazy.

      What about the 53 seats in Québec? That's just what happens when you win the Francophone vote by a clear margin, which the NDP would do with a 13.5% popular vote lead on the Bloc. Remember that the PQ in 1998 won over 60% of Québec provincial seats while losing the popular vote. The Bloc won a majority of Québec seats in 2000 while losing the popular vote by more than 4%. If the NDP wins by 13.5%, getting 70% of seats would not be surprising. But the same effect works against the NDP if it merely ties the Bloc: it would lose the francophone vote and only get around a dozen seats (versus 35-40 for the Bloc), as I currently project.

      I haven't explained the poll itself, but do I still get a gazebo?

      • 28% of the national popular vote, spread rather thinly throughout the country, and even Quebec, is a pretty small pool from which to win bucket loads of seats, isn't it? So, unless this holds through election day, no gazebo for you!

          • OK, ok, it's in the mail.

    • The only way i make sense of this is in those coalition vs CPC majority polls. Something like 60% of the pollsters favoured a coalition. But only in those numbers[ if i'm not mistaken] if Layton but not Ignatieff were to lead.

      I don't need any lakes up here; we have one the size of VI right outside the door. A gezebo might come in handy for a couple of months of the year, but only if it's heated. I fully expect it to be on Harper's santi list for future Northern stimulus – provided the con candidate does well on May 2nd.

      • A con's natural place in this world is politics.

    • That "crazy" seat projection is looking pretty good now.

  5. Ekos is a clear outlier. By a siginicant margin. Everyone else could be wrong, but simple laws of statistics tells us that is probably not the case.

    • The Ekos seat projection is wierd. His actual polling numbers are not that far off from Nanos, except for the Tory numbers.

  6. I've noticed that Scott Tribe and other dispirited Liberals are taking consolation in the possibility that (LPC plus NDP) > CPC, which would obviously hold Harper to a minority and open the door to a coalition.

    However, the Ekos seat projection numbers seem to be way off. As Stephen Gordon points out, "Seat projection models will do well with poll numbers close to previous election numbers. Not so well if boldy going where not gone before."

    It's entirely possible that vote splits will result in a CPC majority with Jack Layton as Leader of the Official Opposition, a possibility that is not reflected by any of the seat projections listed above.

    • Look at the Tory numbers for the last election. EVERYONE underestimated their final percentage and seats… because the Tories were surging, and everyone played it safe.

      This time, the Tories are NOT surging… they've been static. The Grits are in free-fall, and nobody seems to like Iggy. The NDP is surging. With a week to go, that means there will be Liberals and Greens who will look at the NDP as a viable alternative, and jump ship, feeding into the surge.

      IF the EKOS numbers hold up… could be a whole different ball game.

    • I think you're right, I think it mostly depends on the Ontario numbers, and the gap between the Cons and the other two parties in Ontario. If they can keep that gap to 10 points or more, I think they'll have a majority. If Jack keeps his numbers everywhere else, especially Quebec, then he'll be the official opposition.

  7. Nobody had any trouble believing the Cons could get 200 seats, but everyone is choking on 100 for the NDP. LOL

    • You can't be taken seriously you said Mike was not a the hockey game!

      • Well unlike you, I don't follow the man around.

        His schedule said he was in PEI, so I went with that

        In any case, what does that have to do with the NDP getting 100 seats?

        Try to focus.

        • I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I can't see such a thing happening but I'll copy this page and we can revisit it on Tuesday to see who had the best foresight.

          I`ll eat my hat if EKOS is the closest.

          • LOL no we won't 'revisit it' on Tuesday.

            You had no trouble at all believing in 200 seats for the Cons, but this one upsets you…yet it's exactly what Cons said they wanted. The NDP as OO

            What I said was that none of the polls are believable. In fact I've said that for months….so your hat is in no danger.

          • I wasn't voting age when the Cons won 200 seats. I believe my main concern at that point in life was collecting hockey cards.

            I believe I also voted NDP in my first eligible election. Oh those silly days of youthful ignorance.

          • Well I don't remember exact seat counts, but I do remember Dief getting a huge majority, and then Malroney getting back to back majorities….and then Cons blowing it all away

            I've never voted NDP though.

  8. Why would any Canadian in their left mind vote NDP?!…

    A party who has forced MEDICARE on every CDN?, only people who can pay out of their own pockets wile bleeding to death in a ditch should be able to get medical treatment or too bad!…

    A party whose founder Tommy Douglas was voted the GREATEST CANADIAN in the history of our country!, who does he think he is?!…

    A party who cares about the people?!?!, forget the people!, what about the oil companies, banks & big corporations?!, their only making millions in profits!, crap I'm out of bread & water again…

    A leader who thinks the credit card companies are charging us to much interest?!, who cares if Canadians are drowning themselves in dept!, keep the government out of the billionaires business!…

    I mean geeze baaa! The other parties & media etc keep telling me not to vote NDP baaa! they say the SKY WILL FALL! baaa! you'd be crazy baaa! to think for yourself! baaa! you know you can TRUST what baaa! the other parties tell you to FEAR baaa!.

    Baaa!…

    • A party that has never had power and a leader who would cause an international panic if he got anywhere close to the PMO.

      • That's hilarious!

        Cons wanted to wipe out the Libs and have the NDP as OO….and now some poll numbers show that, and Cons freak!

        Plus no 'international panic' would ensue….we have people believing Obama is a Kenyan Muslim Marxist of all things and nobody's panicked. Northern Europe is mostly socialist. Many countries are in fact….even the UK has a coalition with Lib/Dems….and still, no panic.

        Trust me, nobody will care.

      • I appreciate Layton's lack of experience, Dennis, but I think you're severely overestimating Canada's international influence if you think he could cause an international panic.

        He couldn't if he tried.

  9. One of these polls is not like the other…

  10. Just heard ol' Jack on the CBC about setting Cap and Trade so quickly – says, " We already have the expertise setup in Montreal" I bet you do! where else would they have the expertise in stealing money the West

    • Who on earth could have voted you down for that?!? One of my favorite gags of theirs.

    • Seems like a perfect running analysis of Ignatieff's campaign so far, right down to the boo! -)

    • Blues clair they are Coyne and Wells : )

  11. Are we reading the same poll? The NDP has 28% nationally, more than the Liberals' 2008 result. The NDP gets 38.7% in Québec, with three other major parties. How can you spread that thinly?

    The EKOS projection is perfectly plausible given its poll numbers. It just seems crazy because for better or for worse, first-past-the-post does weird things.

    • You're right. I had it in my head that that Liberals got 30% of the vote last time. They got less than 27%. Still, those numbers seem crazy.

  12. I thought you said I made a living out of trashing the Cons.

    Make up your mind Dennis….or are you that freaked??

    PS…Iran??? Okay, maybe you are having a panic attack….I suggest a lie-down with a cold cloth.

  13. Also, EKOS is a 3-day running average of 1,000 interviews A DAY… so 3,000 total interviews. They're going to be a lot more accurate than the other pollsters, and be the first to pick up a serious trend – like an NDP surge.

    That also means their MOE is much lower – and their accuracy higher – than every other Canadian pollster on the regional and provincial numbers.

    Combine that with a fluid situation, and I'm not so inclined to just dismiss this as an outlier. it looks a lot more like a vanguard.

    • Are you taking bets?

      Because I raise you 10!

    • Throughout the entire campaign Ekos has had Con numbers several points below the other pollsters. So there is something structurally different about their polling.

      Which means I would be saying it's neither an outlier, nor is it a vanguard, it's a difference in the polling methodology. What the difference is, I have no idea. Whether they are more or less accurate, I have no idea.

  14. That is a good point. I think many of the poll aggregation sites will be off the mark for that reason. Because they use old polls as well as new ones (and in some cases demographic data and past election results), they are prone to conservatism. That may work well if there are no structural breaks, but it won't if something interesting happens.

    However, by Wells' law, shouldn't we expect a boring outcome?

  15. I think we've blown right past "weird" and we're well into "surreal".

    • or not

      • I was complaining to some Americans that we Canucks have been locked in a bit of a Parliamentary stalemate for the past seven years or so, and as of last week I wasn't sure we were going to break it this election either. I never, in a million years, would have expected it to be broken by an NDP surge in Quebec, of all places.

        But bless you, you crazy french b@stards, bless your hearts. You've finally thrown in the variable necessary to bust up this legislative log-jam and get us to some resolution.

        • Ah, didn't they almost shut their government down a couple of weeks ago?

          • but hey, I heard a Liberal Candidate had his bicycle popped the other day

          • Yes, they almost did shut their government down. The problems the American's have right now–vis a vis balancing demands for austerity while trying to not snuff any economic recovery–make our governance issues look positively cute.

          • cute = 300 million a pop

          • To put it in perspective, that's about the amount of US national debt added in about 4 hours.

            And they *really* don't have any effective means to start controlling that spending.

            To contrast that to us, Canada's national debt would take just under 48 hours to grow by $300 million.

          • but they're 10 times bigger. proporionately, we're rolling in at 4.8 hours by your numbers.

    • Agree imagine if we end up with a situation like the UK and Iggy is the one deciding the majority, with which party he forms a coalition, oh man that would be something!!

      • I never even thought of that possibility. Ignatieff as Clegg!

        • That would be some interesting twist !!

  16. Another potential implication of the NDP surge regards electoral reform. Movement to PR/MMP is generally not undertaken by governments since, almost by definition, they are usually the parties that benefit from a first past the post system. However, an NDP-Liberal government would have a strong interest in moving towards a PR system, since they tend to be the losers under the status quo (of course in the long-run that can have unpredictable effects)… assuming the Liberals are willing to give up the dream of winning massive majorities.

  17. Frank Graves is on the record as saying that no pollster would ever commit professional and commercial suicide by falsifying or tweaking a poll to produce artificially high or low results.

    However, those Ekos numbers look insane, and a mid election poll is the kind of thing that can never be verified. The parties all do their own internal polling…do the Conservatives look as worried as they would be if their polling was showing this result?

    The only election poll anyone remembers when they are analyzed later is the last one. I'm willing to bet dollars to doughnuts that the last published EKOS poll before the cutoff will be within the MOE of all the others. Remains to be seen who will move to get there…but I'm betting its EKOS.

    • do the Conservatives look as worried as they would be if their polling was showing this result?

      That's a good question, john g. I haven't been tracking Harper's speeches over the past few days, but it does sound like he's targeting Layton more than Ignatieff right now. Anyone confirm this?

      • Ignatieff is definitely worried. The con behaviour over the next few days should tell the tale. Could be the cons are just a little too smugly thinking that any future gains for the dippers have to come at the libs expense. I'm holding out for the perennial Harper gaffe of epic proprtions that usually occurs right about now.

        • At this point, I'm sure Ignatieff is beyond 'worry' and quite comfortably in "acceptance". It's been evident since the debate that this election was almost certainly not going to go his way, which means that he just gets to kill some time until the next leadership race, at which point he'll get to bow out quietly.

          But you're right, I'm sure Harper will do something, like presume Layton's health troubles make him too weak to rule the country, that'll galvanize voters and prop up Orange support. Maybe he can get Duffy to write that speech for him.

    • Actually, the Conservatives do look somewhat worried. Harper has been campaigning defensively in BC recently. Also, while pundits have been saying that the near-tie between NDP and Lib is good news for Harper, Harper has begun attacking the NDP fairly strongly. It seems he is feeling a threat; if his numbers were looking good and the NDP surge just creating vote splites, why would he interfere?

      • Think about it. Harper wants the NDP & Liberals at about the same value to maximize vote splitting. The Libs are flatlining and the NDP are surging. No surprise at all that Harper is trying to put the breaks on the NDP surge. I don't know that I would call this worry.

        • It could well be if Graves is even close at all on those numbers. The libs are toast, but the tories might be going backward or at least stalled. If the orange crush is for real it might be tough to stop. People are sick of the cynicism – liberal or tory. The fact that Jack may not be able to pay for any of it is one that is oddly enough shared by all the parties; from Ignatieff's wishful thinking on actual CIT revenues to Harpers fairy tale deep cuts to the public service flab.
          All the parties platforms are an exercize in creative accounting to some degree or other. Can anyone recall an election where all the principle parties were telling a tale of the olde Spanish trail with regard to costing?

  18. I peered into my giant hat and it revealed these numbers.

    Con – 161
    Lib – 64
    NDP – 47
    BQ – 36
    Ind – 1

    Then it whispered something about being accurate 19 times out of 20.

    • Hahaha you have a very big hat, and it is probably right!

  19. I wager all your Trudeau Mania buttons for my giant hat that the EKOS numbers change dramatically before Sunday.

    Also, I believe EKOS always over estimates the Liberal fortunes at the expense of the Conservatives.

    • Sorry old timer. Trudeau was way before my time.

      A Con majority? I still think that there is very strong possibility for that. Although this surge of Layton's seems legit, not sure what will happen. There is large anti Harper vote out there, they might of found their precious unicorn.

      • Well, how about your Justin Trudeau Buttons then? :)

        Also, I'm not old enough to even remember PET winning anything. :)

        • You should both turn in your Justin Bieber buttons.

  20. Ewok has a "k" in it. Just sayin.

    • "Ewoc" is Tabatha Southey's acronym for the Greens. "Europeans WithOut Cigarettes"

  21. Tell us where objective truth lies! You know where it is!

  22. A bit off topic, but a really weird coincidence.

    With the Green party poll numbers collapsing, and Elizabeth May practically nowhere in sight or in the media for the entire campaign…

    An Amber Alert was issued in Ontario today for a toddler named Leila Elizabeth May.

    • Fortunately, the child has been recovered. She had been taken by her own 21-year old mother, who later turned herself in.

      • Any sign of the other Lizzy May?

        • According to the Liberal candidate in her riding, she's busy engaging in intimidation and skullduggery behind the scenes.

          http://www.timescolonist.com/Liberal+claims+haras

          I have my doubts, however. Like so many LPC complaints, it's probably 10% factual and 90% reckless exaggeration. Or something like that. ;-)

      • Thank God!

    • Most of the quotes are on the public record – I personally remember at least half of the ones being mentioned by the media. I don't think this is the campaign viagra the Liberals need at this point.

  23. You've got to seriously question the latest EKOS "poll" — 3,000 respondents! Over Easter? The average national poll is 1,000 respondents. Something strange there…is it a poll or a survey?

  24. One of the possibilities remains one of your rules, which states that we will trend towards the most uninteresting outcome, which would suggest an identical seat count to the last parliament, which remains a possibility, if the Libs remain the same, the Cons drop 1 or 2 points, and the NDP drops a few points.

  25. Andrew…thanks for the summary table…it's hard to keep track with all the polls and seat projections.

    Lots has been said about strategic voters possibly moving to the NDP from the Lib's to combat the Fascists…but what about the "Manley Grits" who may very well be looking at the prospect of Coalition PM Jack…and bleed over to the Con's? Combine that with the increased prospect for Con's to come up the middle in ridings where the NDP are suddenly competitive…maybe that elusive majority is not so far off.

    • On the other hand, maybe it's time for some Conservative supporters to move over to the Liberals to try to stop the NDP.

      • Rat 1: "We need to get off this ship!"

        Rat 2: "You're right! Aha! Look over there! A rusted wreck listing against a jutting crag!"

        Rat 1: "We'll be perfectly safe there!"

    • If the Tories can get their numbers back into the high 30s, I think vote splitting might get them a majority, but I can't see how it's possible if they sit in the mid-30s. I suppose it is mathematically possible, but I think the likelihood of a Tory majority is slim indeed, and if Harper wants to by the end of May, he's going to have to find some sort of an accommodations with someone else.

  26. Crazy EKOS projection, but then Quebecers DO have a habit of rising up and delivering a democratic revolution every now and then. Having so many Canadians suddenly take the NDP seriously also gives other Canadians an excuse to shake things up, rather than cling tightly to their old voting habits. Could happen I suppose.

    And since the Libs and Cons have spent the last five years detailing why the other is unfit for office… perhaps people are starting to believe them? LOL

    • The NDP seems to be taking off in La Belle Province, but let's keep in mind that "elections are not won by prayers." When Dief, Mulroney, and Bouchard creamed the competition in Quebec, they had the help of an established provincial political entity. The PQ is helping the Bloc, as ever, and Charest's Liberals aren't in a position to ask their people to help anyone even if they wanted to get behind Layton, so not all of that poll support will show up on May 2.

  27. @tourist13- "At the end of the day, the NDP are a socialist party and will push for a socialist agenda. No thanks."
    ___________

    At the end of the day, the Conservatives are a Fascists party and will push for a totalitarian agenda. No thanks!. LOL!.

  28. After thinking about this option for a while, I'm actually very much looking forward to the Harper/Ignatieff coalition government, with the NDP Opposition. Replace Flahrety with Goodale, and we should be alright!

  29. LOL at you

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