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Five political predictions for 2016

Evan Solomon and John Geddes explore five key political questions for the year ahead


 
Parliament Hill in Ottawa December 9, 2008. (Photograph by Blair Gable)

Parliament Hill in Ottawa December 9, 2008. (Photograph by Blair Gable)

Inspired by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s 60-second, rapid-fire Maclean’s challenge, Evan Solomon and John Geddes tackle some key questions for 2016:

1. What will pose the biggest challenge to Justin Trudeau in 2016?
2. Will Thomas Mulcair still be the leader of the NDP at this time next year?
3. Who is the front runner for the Conservative Party leadership now—and who will actually win?
4. Who is the federal cabinet minister to watch in 2016?
5. Who is the provincial premier to watch in 2016?

Related: Evan Solomon on the two key stories of 2015. 


 

Five political predictions for 2016

  1. Forget those mundane things. Here are my predictions for 2016:
    Justin will still be the PM. The press will continue to adulate and supplicate to him
    Justin will outspend US, UK and France combined on propaganda related to climate change
    Justin will predict a budget deficit of $10 billion and produce one of $25 billion
    People will be filing their last tax return (for 2015) while they are still sane
    Oil will sell $25.00 per barrel in the world market and $2.50 per litre at a Canadian pump

  2. First budgets are more of an indicator of previous government action: as Canadians should know only too well by now, last budgets of outgoing governments are generally a highly fictionalized accounting being more of a political statement than a financial statement; it’s pretty much routine that outgoing governments leave things in a much bigger mess than they would have use believe (as voters, we just make this worse by enabling a cover-up when we re-elect the same party).

    Q: Why does Brad Wall speak for Conservatives? A: Because the Republicans have dibs on Donald Trump. But seriously, one can expect more than a few provincial leaders to be problematic: the provinces are just exiting ten years of amnesty from federal-provincial relations and most premiers have no experience in national consensus building. If being a wrench in the works is what qualifies a premier for celebrity then we as a nation deserve all we get.

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