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Glad that’s settled


 

Decline in support spells minority government for Tories: poll

Tories widening lead, majority in sight: poll


 
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Glad that’s settled

  1. Maybe after all this is over we can do away with the daily poll tracking?
    I know, I’m dreaming in technicolour.

  2. From your lips to God’s ears Don Mitchell!

  3. Nanos has CPC increasing lead to 6 points and Haper’s leadership numbers on the rise.

  4. This will be settled Tuesday . When everyone decides who they’re not voting for .

  5. From the Maclean’s CP article:

    “The poll had the Tories at 35 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent, the NDP at 18 and the Green Party at 11.”

    Isn’t anyone bothered by the fact the Tories might get a “majority” despite only receiving 35% of the vote?

    Stockwell Day + Joe Clark were getting more than that.

  6. here’s a thought:

    everyone vote for the party you believe in, be it leader platform, or local candidate.

    we’ll count the votes. The parties will get the money from their votes.

    we’ll look at our electoral system and see what needs to be done. If the Greens get two million votes, and no seats, or the Conservatives get a majority with 32% of the vote, or the Bloc gets 55 seats of 75 with 35%, we can finally summon the will to change our broken system.

  7. Let the Star & Globe clear things up:

    The Star says polls are “suggesting Conservatives are on the cusp of a majority of seats”

    The Globe says polls indicate: “Only a huge last-minute swing in voter support could give Stephen Harper a majority government… Conservatives on a downward trajectory”

    Whaa? Are they looking at polling data, or Rorschach blots?

  8. Don – Daily tracking polls are only done during elections, so yeah, we will.

  9. Kady, I hope that you are smart enough to know what I mean. But just to be clear (fav phrase of politicos) I hope we don’t have these daily polls during the next election in 09 (?).

  10. Isn’t anyone bothered by the fact the Tories might get a “majority” despite only receiving 35% of the vote?

    About as much as it bothered me when Chretien won a majority in 1997 with 37.5% of the vote. I didn’t vote for him, yet it still didn’t bother me that much. However, I understand progressives are a more sensitive breed, and they get really upset when they’re shut out of power. Perhaps they’ve inhabited the halls of power so long that they just can’t imagine what outsider status is like.

  11. The stock markets and credit crisis are tough on every government in the world, and to be running in an election as an incumbent during this time, has to be very spooky.

    If I thought for even a moment that Harper had done something to worsen the bad situation, or even worse to have caused it, I would not vote for his candidate.

    I think a Paul Martin, Frank McKenna or a John Manley could have won this election for the Liberals.

  12. Jim: Harper and cronies obviously didn’t do anything to cause the situation (okay, the 40 year, no down mortgages were kind of a bad move, but that’s hindsight, and very few people were saying so at the time) and they haven’t done anything that’s made the situation worse yet.

    But what’s coming can be found at http://mikewatkins.ca/2008/10/08/harper-government-running-deficit-now/ where he shows that this conservative government has been in an operational deficit for 6 out of the last 7 months recorded by the finance department, and not just small deficits either.

    So tell me, what happens if Mr. Harper and Mr. Flaherty find they have to bail out a bank, or a vital industry to an area, and they’ve already blown away all the surplus we had? Do we just kiss that area and those people off, or do we stoke the fires of inflation and worsen our dollar by printing the money to bail?

    Something to think about.

  13. Do I have this straight?

    I vote for Harper and I get more of the same?

    I vote elsewhere, perhaps things improve?

    There you go, I vote elsewhere.

  14. T. Thwim: and you don’t think that the Libs in power during that same period would not have spent surplus money and/or decreased taxes (as they say they will).

    Flaherty paid down big chunks of the national debt.

  15. The pollsters and news-media have a great thing going – with 3% margins of error in a 5-party race, you can have instant stories and constant changes in the nature of the game.

    Even better are tracking polls with regional or demographic subsamples. In Harris-Decima’s Quebec poll, for instance, it is hypothetically possible that the Liberals have 29% to the Bloc’s 37, and so are on target to pick up large number of seats in Quebec. It is also possible that the Bloc will tie their record of 49%, while the Liberals have a dismal 17%.

    Horse-race coverage is also great. Take the news of yesterday. Look at the polls. There’s your story. So if Harper goes down two and Dion up two – even though it is possible nothing actually changed, Dion’s debate performance has cost Harper his majority, etc. Even if you are wrong, there is always the chance that your words become a self-fulfilling prophesy – people decide that Dion DID have a strong debate performance, reassured by the media. Hey maybe he’s not so bad (you can flip around the names here too, I am not alleging media bias, I am alleging media laziness).

  16. Last time I checked 35% simply does not translate into a majority. But this Canadian Press reporter may have a future with CTV News…

  17. To get a majority with 35%, the Conservatives would need perfect vote splits, and to win 30 seats in BC and 60 in Ontario.

  18. Gaaar! Here I go again, predicting the impossible.

    Whomever wins is doomed! Bennet reincarnate.

    It won’t be exactly like this, but close ( substitute “Harper” for “Bennet”:

    “The desperate plea of a penniless farmer’s wife

    September 28, 1933

    Dear Prime Minister R. B. Bennett,

    It is with a very humble heart I take the opportunity of writing this letter to you, to ask you if you will please send for the underwear in the Eatons’ order, made out and enclosed in this letter. My husband will be 64 in December and his neuritis is very bad. We have had very few crops for the last three years, not enough at all to pay taxes and live, and this year’s crops are a complete failure. My husband is drawing wood on the wagon for 34 miles. It takes two days for a trip and he has to sleep out under the wagon. It is cold and windy. I am writing this in the hope that you will send for this underwear for him, as we have no money ourselves. I have patched and darned his old underwear for the last two years, but they are completely worn out. We have never asked for anything of anybody before. If I can only get this underwear for my husband, I can manage for myself, as I can stay in the house over the winter…..

    Prime Minister R. B. Bennett was a very wealthy man who had never experienced poverty. Canada, like the rest of [the] world, was in the midst of a devastating depression, which neither he nor any other politician could solve. He was inundated with letters from destitute Canadians pleading for help.”

  19. “I vote elsewhere, perhaps things improve?”

    Or they could go to hell in a handbasket.

    Personally I trust the devil I know, more than the less than inspiring guy on the other side.

  20. Voice in the wilderness;

    either this thread is dead

    OR

    reality reigns..

  21. Incredibly off-topic but I just read the October 13 issue of Maclean’s: would it be fair to assume, Mr. Coyne, that you didn’t contribute much to that editorial? I ask because you’ve written positively about minority governments in the past but also because it includes a line approving of how the Harper government has “innovated on Quebec’s nationhood.”

  22. ABCDEF

    Anybody But Confused Dion Eh Frere

  23. Why would it bother anyone if the Tories get a “majority” when the majority is voting for them.

  24. Do I have this straight?

    I vote for Harper and I get more of the same?

    I vote elsewhere, perhaps things improve?

    There you go, I vote elsewhere

    Thats some solid logic there. You must be part of Dions core strategy team.

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