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Hunkering Down (35/26/18/9/10)


 

Dig in

Conservatives: 35 (-)

Liberals: 26 (+1)

NDP: 18 (-)

Greens: 9 (-2)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (+1)

From what I can tell, these numbers would include one day of weekend polling, which might or might not be wonky due to the holiday. I’m sure there are any number of theories as to exactly which party’s supporters would most likely be over/undercounted, so bring ’em on.


 

Hunkering Down (35/26/18/9/10)

  1. when does the poll blackout start?

  2. OK – it’s too early for Nanosnumbers – and we just saw Strategic – Ekos posts at night – doesn’t it…
    Kady – I give in…

  3. If you consult the Broadcast Guidelines for the 40th General Election at the Info for Media page at the Elections Canada site, p.27 Question 40, it refers to S.328(2) … “No person shall transmit to the public, in an electoral district on polling day before the close of all of the polling stations in that electoral district, the results of an election survey that have not previously been transmitted to the public”.

    So, no new polls after midnight local time on E-1. Monday night is the last kick at the cat.

  4. Oops – pardon moi – Kady – I should have “Dug in” first – shouldn’t I?
    Harris Decima…

  5. Not til Monday night, alas. I think the last one before The Only Poll That Matters will be the 10pm EKOS hit, but there may be one more before midnight, when the shutters go up. Oh and to answer the question that I know at least a few of you are likely asking – ITQ will keep pollthreading the needle until the lights go out — not because we believe it really matters — in fact, we’ve pretty much come to the same conclusion as many of y’all that the unprecedented number of daily tracking polls this time around has been a terrible thing, as far as the overall coverage of the campaign — but because every time we don’t have the latest results up within minutes of release, it kicks off a fresh round of bellyaching about how we’re just trying to cover up the truth about the looming Conservative/Liberal/NDP/Green victory that NO ONE SAW COMING!

  6. You know where I stand.

    Though at this point, as I’ve stated earlier, there will be a general over counting of Lib support (and under for Tories),

    due to voter apathy and the respective parties’ motivation for going out.

    When a significant number of the base is awaiting Dion’s departure to herald a new era of leadership to take the party onward to a majority at the first opportunity,

    while polls show a Harper majority won’t be much a concern,

    a statistically significant significant number of hardcore Libs will sit this out.

    Add to that an equally significant number of borderline Liberals who are uninspired by Dion,

    and this one wont be close.

    And remember……

    He goes by the name……..Kody.

  7. I just realized something. Living in Alberta I’ve grown used to the constant complaining that in a democracy it was unforgivable for Chretien’s Liberals to govern the country with only 38% support. Yet now that the Conservatives are governing (granted not with a majority) those folks all fall silent. If these polls and election results are too be believed, fully 62% or so of Canadians support some sort of left of centre governing platform. I wonder what the reality would be if everyone voted based strictly on policy rather than regional/historical biases.

  8. Oh,

    and to complete the above,

    Con supporters would walk over shards of broken glass barefoot, to vote for Harper.

  9. Hazzard,

    “I wonder what the reality would be if everyone voted based strictly on policy rather than regional/historical biases.”

    But what would those policies be?

    The Green Shift will be implemented, come what may.

    The Green Shift will not be implemented, seeing what may come.

    Flashback: We will do away with the GST
    More recent flashback: We object to Harper’s cut in GST

    If you won’t ask the Liberals about their policy, then ask yourself.

  10. I actually do think turn-out will be a story this time, and may hurt some parties more than others.

    There are two parts to the question: (a) whose base is more motivated to vote, and (b) are switchers *more* motivated to vote this time than last time, or less so, if the outcome is not seen to be in jeopardy, and (ok, two-and-a-half parts) are they more likely to switch. Not sure how to tease out the two effects empirically, though.

  11. Kady,

    No Blackberry discussion on the Citizen today? If yes, can you post the link. I can’t find it on the Citizen’s website.

  12. I have a theory…polls make people mental.

    Discuss.

  13. Kody,

    “Con supporters would walk over shards of broken glass barefoot, to vote for Harper.”

    Harper is damn lucky elections are on a Tuesday.

    On Tuesdays I happen to be willing to walk over shards of broken glass for the nearly broken man

    :)

  14. Actually we call them “broken glass Tuesdays”.

    Almost as fun a “burning coals Wednesdays”,

    though not to be outdone by molten lava Thursdays.”

  15. I wish people would stop asssuming that all 60-65 percent of the people who don’t support the Conservatives automatically support some mythical party based on so-called “progressive” values. It simply ain’t so.

    The reason the Liberals used to be successful, but no longer are, is that the Liberals have forgotten that when they used to win elections they appealed to middle-of-the-road voters.

    Middle-of-the-road voters who do not support elements of the Conservative platform no longer have somewhere to go because the Liberals have moved too far to the left.

    Dion is wrong to think that voters are looking for a “progressive” coalition. If he had turned his party towards the centre he would be looking at an election victory two days from now, instead of ducking under the furniture to save his skin.

  16. Michael – Just posted the link. Sorry about that! I meant to do it earlier, but got distracted.

  17. Conversely,

    the Liberals have “for the love of god, come out and vote – we’ll even give you free cappuccino Tuesdays”

  18. A reader,

    You have a fan for your theory with me. This is why before you even look at the polls you look at the recent result, 2006.

    Then you can ask am I likely to see a similar number of people showing up to vote the same way.

    So the theory goes, con vote is pretty solid and pretty motivated. Fair assumption to say that they’ll get the same number of votes, except maybe Quebec, where their vote was soft, bit who knows.

    Liberal vote was soft and is soft, unispring leader, not making judgement just going by general opinion, and not a good ground game. Less vote. NDP and Greens generally have run above average campaigns, those votes disproportionatley come from Libs.

    So doing this bottom up, you come up with a similar number of con votes, less libs, more dips and greens.

    In general you should expect cons and Dips to pick up seats shere libs won by narrow margins.

    Incrementally the cons will pick up seats is the theory, The question is how many and where. If they hold their Quebec seats then we really are looking at a race for majority, if they increase its a likely majority and if less then how strong is the blue tide in Ontario and the orange tide in BC.

    What can upset all of this is turnout. If there is a huge increase in turnout it can swamp con vote if they go lib or dip or green. No indications that this will be a higher than 2006 turnout election.

    Once again a theory, that we will see how it plays out. But I am on the same page as you as to my expectations…Expectation is increased number of con seats, whether its 5 15 or 25 is the real question. The splits baby, the splits.

  19. How can Biff be so drunk so early on a Sunday morn?

  20. “the Liberals have “for the love of god, come out and vote – we’ll even give you free cappuccino Tuesdays”

    Well, Kody, if they offer decaf, they’ll have my vote. Anything for good coffee!

  21. I am hoping for a Conservative majority and the NDP for a solid opposition.

    I do not agree with NDP policy, but Jack is at least consistent. We can’t really say that about the Greens and Liberals.

    Maj Conservative and NDP opposition would be good for Canada. That way the Liberals can retreat into deciding who they want to be, and the Greens can go into retreat thinking about if they want to be a party or not.

  22. “In general you should expect cons and Dips to pick up seats where libs won by narrow margins.

    Incrementally the cons will pick up seats is the theory, The question is how many and where. If they hold their Quebec seats then we really are looking at a race for majority, if they increase its a likely majority and if less then how strong is the blue tide in Ontario and the orange tide in BC.”

    Hi Stephen, I don’t believe they will hold many of those Quebec seats. I think there are a few seats for them to pick up in the rural Atlantic, in the ridings of some retiring Ontario Liberal incumbents, some gains in the 905, plus St-Boniface and perhaps Nunavut. They’ll lose some seats in BC, perhaps a few in SK and AB, and in the manufacturing belt of Ontario, plus 2/3 of their seats in Nfld. May has guaranteed that MacKay will win, though.

    A lot of Liberal incumbents are looking weak, and their challengers in the swing seats they would have had to win are weak as well. Dion is shoring up support in Vaughan and Scarborough in the final days, rather than hitting ridings they had hoped to gain, so you know that by now it’s all about where they can at least assemble bodies for the cameras. I infer from this that even their base is not terribly motivated.

    The NDP campaigns are very motivated and have good on the ground election day experience, while the Conservatives have the reputation for a strong technologically sophisticated GOTV operation. I think the Greens are probably flummoxed by all the zigs and zags of their leader in the past few days, and will do their best, but perhaps not with the zeal they started out having.

    And, you’re right, there’s the splits! Which turn-out, motivation and organization all have a big influence over. So the end result will be fascinating … probably the most interesting part of the campaign so far. Après ceci, le déluge!

  23. Kady,

    Can I admit to not reading the numerous comments preceding mine and go for the brass ring on this merry-go-round? YOU are Kody!

    Haarrr! It’s a pirates life for me!

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