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I plod Nanos! I don’t know, I was trying to make some kind of pun on “Nanos” and it didn’t go well. Anyway, today’s Nanos poll has extra fun for all the kids!


 

Fun polling facts: When you have a rolling poll with 400 calls a night, by the time you’ve rolled across five days, you have a large enough sample that your regional sub-samples, added together, aren’t completely bogus.

This is the blessed state of affairs to which we have arrived in the world of Nanos polling. Hence the fun fun 5-day regional breakdown. (click to open the .pdf) It shows…more or less what you’d expect: the Liberals are strong in Liberal areas, whereas, conversely, the Conservatives are strong in areas where the Conservatives are strong. There are even pockets of NDP strength, in the areas where the NDP is strong. And yet you’re dying to see the chart, aren’t you. Well, go ahead and click.


 

I plod Nanos! I don’t know, I was trying to make some kind of pun on “Nanos” and it didn’t go well. Anyway, today’s Nanos poll has extra fun for all the kids!

  1. Imagine what the liberals could do if they had even a modicum of organization? The fact that these gaffes by the conservatives are barely registering makes me wonder what the debates will hold.

  2. Shuffle broken on iPoll Nanos! (My contribution to the headline contest you didn’t announce.)

  3. Like you described, Paul, the numbers are mostly predictable. I am kinda shocked though at the Southwestern Ont numbers. Libs doing slightly better than Cons but NDP and Green have significant support as well. Shows we have a nice mix of classes, ethnicities and ideologies I guess.

  4. I like those CPC vs. BQ numbers in “Rest of Quebec”!

  5. It’s a headline contest! Suggestions welcome.

  6. Now this is what the doctor ordered!

    My entry; my observation.

    Look at Northern & Eastern Ontario, eh? 40 Con, 29 Lib, 22 NDP. Does that mean the Tories sweep everything but urban Ottawa?

  7. Actually, that entry sucked: how about “But where’s the Nanoose breakdown?” vel sim.?

  8. I’m feeling immature:

    “Tories say, ‘Nyah-nyah-nyah-nyah-Nanos!'”

    (Okay, that was weak, too…)

  9. I was really surprised by the popularity of the Greens in Southwestern Ontario and the comparatively low NDP numbers there but I suppose outside of Windsor and maybe St. Catherine’s they don’t have that much support.

  10. How about “All locales are political?”

  11. Watch all of us political junkies analyze these polls like they are meaningful even though +- numbers are so large they make the numbers almost meaningless?

    I am having a hard time distilling that headline/idea into something pithy though.

  12. How about this for a headline: 62% of Canadians outside of Alberta hate the Conservatives. Or, 62% of Canadians outside of Alberta support pro-environment parties.

    I was thinking of “Nanos nanos. [insert politician here] calling Orson”, but that would be dating myself.

  13. “Nanosize samples, kilosize errors, megasize fun!”

  14. What I found most interesting was the dive taken by Dion’s best PM, competence and trust numbers right after he had Bobby R. play the pit bull out front. If this continues after tonites breakdown I wonder if Iggy will make an appearance. Hmmmm!

  15. Append to previous message : Iggy is already out and about – this should get interesting!

  16. As far as I’m concerned Mike G’s title is the winner so far (with Kady in a close second I think). Great stuff! Kind of sad when the headline challenge is more relevant than the polls….sigh

  17. Headline: “Look Canada: STILL no Policy Discussion!”

  18. While people around here continue to obsess about Nanos, there was one very interesting poll out of Quebec today that is worth poring over. Leger has their first poll numbers out taken during the campaign. The Conservatives have to be happy with it:

    Conservatives 34
    Bloc 32
    Liberals 20

    Folks, anything over 30% sees the Conservatives getting into interesting seat total territory. Last election the Bloc was at 42% vs. the Conservative’s 25%. The Conservatives are up 4% from the last poll. I doubt Harper will come close to any of Mulroney’s seat totals but 30 is not out of the realm of possibility. Anyway, it’s a good start.

  19. The race is far from over, but as we approach our third week of a five week campaign, those Leger numbers are an ominous sign for the Liberals.

    It’ll be interesting when the next Crop poll comes out. Usually they’re saying the same thing (a testament to their reliability – given their large sample sizes).

    When one looks at other regional polls done in the past week:

    BC showing significant CPC gains,
    MB as well, including the loss of the Liberal fortress of St.Boniface,
    and the Atlantic polls just a few days ago,

    it appears that the only safe haven for the Liberals is downtown Toronto.

  20. Are we going to be seeing secret deals between Dion and Duceppe to stop a Harper majority? I wouldnt’ put it past either one of them.

    Dion in particular needs Duceppe’s help now, because the Bloc are the only party that is currently competitive with the Conservatives in Quebec. Dion is standing on the sidelines like a second-string quarterback with his team playing in his home town. Folks, who do you think he’s cheering for, Duceppe’s team or Harper’s? Well I’m sure he’s being discreet, but we all know who he’s secretly rooting for. And in this case, it ain’t the federalist side.

  21. Ya Jarrid good point! Dion has never really shown his Federalist credentials. I mean what does an entire career in both academia and politics almost constantly battling the seperatists really prove??!! Sure he has made himself a pariah in much of his home province because he refused to back down in the face of rampant Quebec nationalism but what does that really mean either?
    Now the Tories! There are some good Federalis credentials in Quebec! Lord knows they’d never make deals with hard line nationalists and sovereigntists just to get a few votes in la belle province! Well…unless you count Bouchard failed attempts by mulroney to sell the ROC and Quebec Anglo/Allophones out with Meech and Charlottetown and the recent love fest between the decentralizing Tories and the Quebec sovereigntists who love that kind of thing. But other than all that insignificant stuff Dion is clearly in bed with the BQ and the Tories are our real Canadian heros in Quebec…wait wasn’t the BQ started by a Tory…who used to be a PQ’er…hmmmm…..

  22. RyanD – this “OMG the Conservatives are going to get a majority” meme has some completely unhinged. Never mind that the Liberals have held power for 33 of the last 45 years. The fear of an other than left-lib party at the helm can make strange bedfellows, even stranger and Duceppe and Dion.

    Speaking of Dion, he was involved in the sovereignty movement and campaigned for the PQ in 1976. He also supported Meech Lake. He’s a johnny come lately to federalism, and only became a committed federalist after the collapse of Meech Lake.

    We can read the account on Wikepedia:

    “His decisive conversion to federalism, as he later recounted to journalist Michel Vastel, occurred as he was preparing for a presentation in Washington:

    I was sitting at my computer at 11 o’clock, and, at noon, I had a text that was so interesting that the Americans wanted to publish it. It was on that day that I realized I was truly a federalist.”

    Another thing about Stephane Dion, noted from the passage above. He’s totally full of himself and can’t stop marvelling at his own accomplishments and saying so out loud. What a turn-off.

  23. Wow Jarrid! If only I had read Wikipedea before commenting. According to Wikipedia (and I am not making this up!) I won a provincial election in the riding of York South in 1984. Strangely enough I was 7 years old at the time. Last time I checked the people I beat included two people who I know for a fact are 14 years old right now and weren’t even born then. What a fantastic source this is what passes for Tory expertise these days.
    As for Dion- I wouldn’t consider 20 years of work a sudden and late conversion at this point. When Meech collapsed many Quebecois moved towards the sovereigntist side Dion did the total opposite and has suffered greatly (untoold nuumbers of viscious personal attacks in Quebec) as a result. He has proved his loyalty The Tories were in bed with the seperatists and they still are! Why do you think the BQ are dropping off? Soft seperatists (especially those on the right) can get everything they want from the Tories so they don’t need the BQ. You theory about the Liberals is pure baseless speculation.

  24. People in Quebec know Dion and are turned off by him. During the 2006 leadership convention, those that knew Dion the most, his fellow MP’s, supported anyone but Dion. He’s not a likeable guy. The more the country gets to see the guy the less they’ll like them, just like Quebecers who have already written him off. He has an unrealistic sense of his abilities. How he came to be leader of Canada’s most succesful political party is truly a mystery to me.

    As a person who thinks Canada currently has to tack right politically, I am very happy indeed to see him Libeal leader, just like the Liberals were happy campers when Joe Clark led the Conservatives to elecoral oblivion.

  25. “Quebecers who have already written him off”

    You are aware that the Liberal party is still very much in the lead in Montreal? Maybe the Liberals are only winning there because of money and the ethnic vote?

    “when Joe Clark led the Conservatives to elecoral oblivion.”

    Er, Clark won more seats in ’79 then Harper has now – in a smaller Parliament.

  26. “How he came to be leader of Canada’s most succesful political party is truly a mystery to me.”
    Jarrid- Of course it is! That is because you don’t understand it. He won because he ran a good tactical campaign by playing two front runners off of eachother and recognizing the fact that delegates from both those camps couldn’t bear to vote for the other front runner.
    He has been written off in Quebec because he has refused to cave to the nationalists. That is why they don’t like him. There was a time when western Conservatives like Harper applauded people who didn’t pander to Quebec nationalism, now Harper is the nuumber one suck up.
    As for the rest of your “argument” it appears that you think I should be convinced by your assertion that to paraphrase “Dion is a friggin dick that nobody likes and he sucks!!” Ummm….great reasoning in grade 6 but it doesn’t cut it in a campaign. I have actually met Dion (not in a political context but an academic one). Whatevere else can be said of him he was a very pleasant and engaging man. One strong Tory supporter who was with me at the time agreed. If you think that the “he’s an unlikeable jerk” argument is valid though you really need to take a look at your boy Stevie!

  27. The Tories can taunt the Liberals with:
    Nah-nah-Nanos, nah-nah-Nanos, hey-ey-ey! Good-bye!

  28. “when Joe Clark led the Conservatives to elecoral oblivion.”

    Er, Clark won more seats in ‘79 then Harper has now – in a smaller Parliament”

    … and proceeded to self-destruct in less than 9 months. That’s right folks, that how long the Clark government laste. Oh the electoral oblivion comment, I’m talking of course about the 1980 blowout to Pierre Trudeau.

    The Libs will be lucky to hold on to 10 seats in Quebec. There only hope for a pick up is Justin Trudeau’s candidacy currently in a seat held by the Bloc. In Dion’s HOMETOWN of Quebec, the one remaining non-Conservative seat belonging to the Bloc is poised to fall to the Conservatives. The Liberals? You have to drive a long time before you can get to a Liberal riding – best bet is to head east to New Brunswick.

    Outside of Montreal, the once mighty Liberal Party of Canada is no more.

  29. Ryan – Dion said on the first or second day of the campaign that he was more nationalist than Gilles Duceppe. That’s what he said. I kid you not.

    The guy’s language problem is the least of his worries. He is politcally tone deaf. How the Liberal Party of Canada could knowingly choose a tone deaf politician is a mystery as I say. I did hear something about the Orchard Cultists also having a hand in his election. Orchard controlled a number of candidates at the convention and they backed Dion.

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