Insta-insta reaction


From the massively multi-parallel dial group at buzzz.tv:

About 455 people watching at any one time. Reactions turned sharply negative whenever Harper spoke. None of the other leaders was more popular than the others. Caveats about self-selecting sample apply.

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Insta-insta reaction

  1. Harper was auditioning for Prime Minister.

    The rest for Leader of the opposition.

    Dion just doesn’t look like he wants to be Prime Minister. He looks content to tilt at windmills.

  2. Good call Jarrid, that’s why everytime he spoke the reaction went into the earth’s mantle. You’re on mindless auto pilot.

  3. This was a bit problematic for me, since I was watching on CPAC which seemed (judging by the Maclean’s liveblog) to be a good 30 seconds or so behind: so I may have endorsed a few “high points” that consisted of mumbled platitudes etc. Perhaps in future they could ask what source one is using for the broadcast and calibrate according to the delay (0 for TV, 30s for CPAC, etc.)

  4. SteveV – take a valium. It’s game, set and match for Dion. You were a good soldier. You fought the good fight, but the Liberals have made three mistakes that were fatal in this election:

    1. They picked a leader who was a pariah in Quebec. A man who is not a natural politician and a man who is ideologically too rigidly left to lead the Liberal Party.

    2. Dion led the Liberals, and the Liberals followed him clearly to the left of the political spectrum, as opposed to the center.

    3. The Liberals recognized to late that they were playing in a crowded field and that the competition for votes on the left was fierce, ie, Layton and the NDP, experienced and capable. Elizabeth May, a formidable if unorthodox media-hog.

    So what happened is that the Libs lost, to quote Chantal Hebert votes “right, left and center.”

    The remedy: the Liberals have to go back to the center were most Canadians are comfortable.

  5. “SteveV – take a valium.”

    A meds reference, there’s irony there.

  6. Did the Buzz folks release the voting intentions of the participants? I know I was asked for that before the debate and I’d be curious if the reason Harper scored so poorly was because there were few Conservatives logged in, or if it was because he did poorly

  7. SteveV – you didn’t honestly think Dion would beat the odds and turn this campaign around tonight? Fife and Olive are saying tonight that the Liberals are intending to scale back their campaign and try to preserve the ridings they are competitive in.

    One thing I notice is that pundits say that Harper had it tough because it was four against one, which is true as far as it goes. But is also made it harder for Dion to go after Harper than if there were only 3 or 4 parties in the debate.

    He had to share the stage with May and she’ll take votes away from him.

  8. Leaders Debate? That was was not a debate. It was a debacle. I’ve heard better at post game bar arguments. It was as gut wrenchingly embarrassing as Question Period. None of the participants conveyed leadership (or debating) qualities to me. If I vote at all it will probably be for the person least likely to win in my riding.

  9. Fife is a conservative hack on the Conservative Television Network – so is most everyone else on that network.. so pardon Jarrid, if any of us over here don’t take what they say with a mountain of salt.

  10. Layton hammered the final nail into Dion’s coffin tonight. The line about failing as opposition leader was lethal.

    May didn’t help him either. Although she was rude as hell, she gave a strong performance, and less reason for her disciples to desert her. She will probably cause more vote splitting than she would like.

    Harper maybe didn’t “win the debate”, but I think he and Layton are the big winners tonight. Dion loses, as does May by performing well enough to steal votes from him and divide the left wing vote further.

  11. Scott – so now Liberal bloggers are attacking the media. Tsk. Tsk.

    The media didn’t determine the outcome of this debate. I sure as heck hope that’s not what you are saying.

  12. Scott, the same can’t be said for Craig Oliver…have you ever watched QP? There is no-one at CTV more in the tank for the LPC than Oliver. And even he knows it’s over.

  13. @pj : Did the Buzz folks release the voting intentions of the participants?

    Yes, it’s all in the “Users and information” file on http://buzzz.tv.

    Happy data mining!

  14. Want to see media bias? From today’s Ottawa Citizen:

    “QUEBEC – The French-language arm of the CBC said Thursday it will summon for a meeting a reporter who took part in a web campaign launched by Quebec artists to protest Conservative cuts in culture subsidies and prevent the party’s re-election.”

    That’s media bias Scott. Paid for with more than a Billion worth of taxpayer’s dollars.

  15. Good catch Dale. That didn’t stop Wells from posting it. It’s frigging useless except to keep the likes of SteveV from jumping off a tall building.

    SteveV. needs rose-coloured glasses about now and PW’s provided them with this post.

  16. October 2nd, 2008 – 12:30AM (well, actually, October 3rd)

    Tonight’s verdict on the buzzz.tv experiment – english language debate

    Less than an hour after the end of the broadcast, the team of buzzz.tv
    made available the data gathered during the english language leaders’s
    debate. The files can be downloaded directly from http://www.buzzz.tv.

    An interactive graphical representation of the debate’s timeline is
    actually available at the following URL http://www.buzzz.tv/tufte_en/

    More than 450 people were able to participate in this second buzzz.tv
    experiment that remains, first and foremost, a laboratory for
    understanding and experimenting with social television.

    Please note that for a more complete survey of the many reactions
    about buzzz.tv, one can read the following page:

    Team of buzzz.tv

  17. Fife is not taken seriously by anyone.

  18. No insta Ipsos polls tonite? What’s the matter? Natpost no likey results?

  19. On another note, I’m positively thrilled that this is the last Canadian election that will be run against George Bush. The guy will be gone in 3 months and he’s still the only thing the Liberals can think of to attack Harper with. I don’t know what the left in Canada will use for material when he’s gone.

  20. Clément, no offence but I’m not all that interested in getting the reaction of a sample of people who are stacked with BQ supporters. I mean really, what’s the point. Duceppe is just a demagogue. Are the BQ going to pick their noses for the next for years between bitch sessions? Did he ever even read the Kyoto agreement? That accord would be disastrous if Canada tried to implement it. Our economy would go in the tank.

    Why even Dion doesn’t talk about it anymore.

  21. “Fife is not taken seriously by anyone.”

    I’m seeing a pattern in Liberal post-debate talking points. Dump on the media, so that when Dion is panned tomorrow by the media (save for the usual Dionistas) it’s the media that can’t be trusted. Well at least it’s a plan.

  22. Hey folks,

    why all the angst.

    Let us come together,

    celebrate democracy and await the voice of Canadians in twelve days from now.

    Personally, I’m feeling very good about Canadians expressing their ultimate act of citizenship (and the results that will flow therefrom).

    Whatever the result, we know that the government we get will be one in which the public wants.

    The government that the public wants.

    Shouldn’t be that music to all of our ears?

  23. And the guy they are dumping on as a Conservative hack is the same one who called Harper’s caucus “a bunch of knuckle draggers”

  24. John G,

    you don’t seem to get it.

    Attacks on conservatives, however crude, rude, or hateful, is actually

    progressive tolerance.

    Today’s tolerant progressive left, where hate is OK, as long as its the ‘correct’ kind of hate.

  25. There are two key questions on this debate (and the French debate). Who won the war for the left, and who won the battle for the centre-right (the voter – I am pretty sure my dad is that voter – who is at the 40th percentile on a right-left spectrum, where 0=right wing)?

    1. Did a leader emerge among the 4 parties running to challenge Harper?
    A: No. However, Dion did well in the French debate and is ahead of the rest, while May got more exposure than she has ever had. The dials reflect that nobody came out as the clear standard-bearer of the left (each member of each left wing party back the other). I suspect this helps the Liberals because it means they are the natural strategic voter choice. Moreover, because the NDP and Liberals are running a primarily anti-Harper campaign, left-leaning voters may be more willing to swallow their principles and go for Dion.

    2. Did a leader win over the 40th percentile voter?
    A: Maybe, and it was Harper who was gunning for that voter by sticking to the centre and by holding his own in a tough debate. According to Global Harper won the debate, with Layton coming a strong second. Layton’s strong second, however, needs some interpretation – to voters on the left you have to ask how much he beat Dion and May in their estimation.

    So who wins? Harper and Dion. As muddled as the left-leaning parties are, if you want to beat Harper, Dion is your man. If you like the way things are – and there are about 40% of voters in that camp on a good day – Harper is.

  26. hosertohoosier…your kidding right?

    I would be surprised if Harper wins his own seat let alone be government after that total embarrassment.

    I want some of whatever your smokin’

  27. Can any of you imagine yourself as a European watching this farce? Every tenth word was Bush, the only conclusion one could reasonably draw is that this is a nation of spoiled infants.

  28. kody,

    You say we’ll get “the government that the public wants”. So long as we have a first past the post electoral system and more than 2 parties running in elections, the government we get will not be the one the public wants.

    It’s time for some form of proportional representation here in Canada. MMP and STV are good examples. Let’s implement one and get a government the public REALLY wants.

  29. right on mark, Marc (not intended):

    unfortunately the electorate doesn’t grasp the concept and professional politicians do!

  30. right on THE mark,

  31. Could someone explain to me this popular notion that Dion has lead the party left? Is it because of the Green Shift? Because carbon taxation + shifting is endorsed by most economists and a lot of small-c conservatives.

    Is it because of proposed spending programs? Because those sorts of ideas arrived way ahead of Dion (e.g. last election’s childcare program and 50/50 plan).

    I really don’t see this leftward shift.

  32. Saying that Dion took the Liberals left is part of the CPC strategy to ‘pull the centre right’. If anything, Dion is to the right of how Martin was governing. He is advocating lower taxes than the CPC.

  33. Biden and Obama together in two debates didn’t invoke Bush as often as those losers.

  34. Liberal koolaid particularly potent this morning.

    The online Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Canwest News Service and Global National found 31 per cent of voters said Harper won the debate, and Layton was second with 25 per cent. In third place was the newcomer to the leaders’ debates, Green Leader Elizabeth May, with 17 per cent of respondents saying she was the winner, followed by the opposition leader, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, with 15 per cent.

    Saint John Liberal MP Paul Zed doorknocking with Ken Dryden. In his own neighbourhood.

    It’s over. Liberals must preserve their resources. Cut their losses. Throw in the towel.

  35. It’s over. Liberals must preserve their resources. Cut their losses. Throw in the towel.

    y’all can’t seriously think BS like this works?

  36. Stephen Harper is the only person in this election who has an ounce of credibility and intelligence. Can you honestly imagine the state of affairs this country would be in with ANY of the other candidates as Prime Minister? Dion wouldn’t have anyone to insult and quite frankly Canada would be laughed at with Dion at the helm trying to maintain foreign relations. As for Layton, let’s be honest. Isn’t the economy one NDP vote away from a recession?

  37. Credibility? Have you lost it, man?

    Cast your mind back–to last night. Duceppe was on Harper about Iraq. Duceppe asked something to the effect of, ‘If you had been Prime Minister then, would we have joined the war in Iraq?’
    Harper evaded but Duceppe kept pushing. Finally, Harper admitted “it was a mistake”. I thought Duceppe was going to jump across the table, but he managed to restrain himself to “so you admit your position was a mistake?”

    Harper’s CREDIBLE reply was “it wasn’t MY position.” No! It was Howard’s! But does he expect us to believe not only did he not write the speech–he didn’t deliver it either?

  38. Paul, just to interject a purely technical note on the buzzz.tv project. It is a really terrific execution of the kind of data collection that previously only political parties had access to.

    But, I’ve noticed that the highlighting doesn’t work properly in Internet Explorer 6 (haven’t tried in IE 7), and the coloured bars don’t appear at all in Firefox 1.0.7.

    Specifically, if you hover your mouse over the bars for each of the parties using Internet Explorer 6, it highlights the wrong part of the coloured bars on top. Looks like they forgot to adjust the offset in their CSS for the IE 6 wonky implementation of the box layout model. [Yes, I realize the last sentence made no sense to 99% of your readers, but I still experience some cross-browser layout problems of the same kind with the Pundits’ Guide myself.]

    The good news: everything works just fine on Safari (I’m using version 3.0.1), which is available for PCs and well as Macs.

    So, for any PC users still using IE 6.x who want to see the data properly, download and install Safari (http://www.apple.com/safari/) and then try again.

    It’s worth taking a second to do so. OK, back to the rest of the kibbitzing …

  39. “I would be surprised if Harper wins his own seat let alone be government after that total embarrassment.”

    This is one of those few times when quoting somebody that disagrees with you makes your point in and of itself. You are, almost certainly, the exact kind of person that would have put a negative dial on Harper no matter what, and a positive dial on at least 2 of the 4 anti-Harper parties.

    Of course Harper doesn’t need you to win the election – if you want to beat him, you and your fellow ilk need to decide who the not-Harper standard bearer is. Otherwise, with the Bloc, Greens and NDP doing better than last time, and Harper holding onto his core – guess who loses seats, and guess who gains the most?

  40. PG: I’m using the most recent stable version of firefox 3.0.2, and the data displays properly. I don’t know where you found 1.0.7–that’s quite old.

  41. “Could someone explain to me this popular notion that Dion has lead the party left? Is it because of the Green Shift? Because carbon taxation + shifting is endorsed by most economists and a lot of small-c conservatives.”

    Well you are right and you are wrong. You are correct in the ideological sense, but Canadian politics isn’t about ideology it is about region (decreasingly) and class (increasingly). When you imagine somebody on the left, increasingly, you conjure up the image of an urben upper middle class probably female professional with a glass of chardonnay (who likes galas perhaps) and a hyphenated last-name. The green shift works for them because they pay less of the costs associated, and reap many of the benefits. Dion hasn’t so much moved to the left, as he has moved the Liberal party to Rosedale (a ritzy neighbourhood in Toronto, for reference).

    Harper is, fiscally, LESS conservative than Stephane Dion. His preferred mode of tax cuts are targeted tax credits (which are subsidies to things the government likes, hardly a fiscally conservative move) and reductions in sales and excise taxes. Does that mean Harper is less of a Conservative? Well it would if Canadian politics are about ideology – but they aren’t. A Conservative in Canada is a paunchy middle aged middle class guy (probably) from Oshawa named Frank who likes watching the hockey (it is always THE hockey). He doesn’t have postmaterial values, he doesn’t care much about foreign policy, the arts or the environment, and so Harper makes more sense to him.

    Yes, there is still a shrinking core of working class voters that like the NDP, and there are some super-rich folks that like the Tories – but it is impossible for any rubric to perfectly describe a political system. Canadian politics are about class, which is precisely why Harper has little ability to penetrate beyond 40% of the electorate, while his opponents have little ability to knock him down from ~36 (it is also why moves to the centre by Harper will yield limited gains – upper middle class folks fear Harper because fearing Harper is a good way of expressing their possession of social class).

  42. “PG: I’m using the most recent stable version of firefox 3.0.2, and the data displays properly. I don’t know where you found 1.0.7–that’s quite old.”

    Andrew, you’re right of course, but it’s best for me to develop using older versions of browsers (which still show up on my stats), to make sure I’m forward compatible.

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