Justin Trudeau and the ghost of Michael Ignatieff

Is it time for the Liberal leader to start writing his memoir of failure?


Former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, right, greets supporters as he arrives at a Liberal Party fundraiser in Montreal in 2009, as MP Liberal Justin Trudeau looks on. (Graham Hughes/Canadian Press)

Has Justin Trudeau’s moment already passed? Should he start taking notes now for his book about how it all went wrong?

Perhaps it would be rash to abandon all hope. But look at this poll. From a high of 36% and a six-point lead—by the measure of Ipsos Reid—the Liberals are at 31% and one point behind the Conservatives. The Liberals trail the Conservatives by 17 points on the economy and 10 points among those born outside the country. In terms of understanding the middle class—the theme to which Mr. Trudeau has clung since declaring himself a candidate for leadership—the Liberals trail the NDP by eight points.

So maybe that’s that. Maybe this summer’s polling is now destined to be regarded as the high point for Trudeau the Younger. Maybe it will only ever get worse from here.

“Look at Justin’s polls, compare them to mine,” Michael Ignatieff said recently. “I’m in no position to offer this guy any advice at all.”

Whatever Mr. Ignatieff now understands about his own limitations, here he was being too humble.

From March 2009 to June 2009, his third through sixth months as leader of the Liberal party, Mr. Ignatieff enjoyed a polling advantage over the Conservatives. That lead wasn’t quite as large as the one Mr. Trudeau enjoyed this summer, but it was a lead that persisted for awhile. And then it went away. And it never came back. From a three-point advantage in the spring of 2009, Mr. Ignatieff ended up with a 21-point deficit in the spring of 2011.

That result and the two years he spent working his way to it can obscure the fact that Michael Ignatieff could have been prime minister. To say so is not merely to acknowledge that he was once leader of a major political party at the federal level in this country, nor that he was once leader of the Liberal party of Canada, one of the most dominant political institutions of the 20th century, nor that he could have, in theory, defeated the Conservatives in the House of Commons in January 2009 and sought the Governor General’s permission to form a new government.

It is, instead, to say that it is possible to imagine the Michael Ignatieff Experiment succeeding. It is, in the abstract and hypothetical, possible to concoct a mildly plausible alternative universe in which it works out better for Mr. Ignatieff and he ends up occupying, for some amount of time, the Prime Minister’s office on the second floor of Centre Block.

What if the Liberals hadn’t lost their hold on government as a result of the 2006 election? What if, even if they did, Paul Martin hadn’t resigned as leader? What if Mr. Ignatieff hadn’t gotten into politics five or ten years sooner? What if Mr. Ignatieff doesn’t say those silly things about Israel, Hezbollah and Qana? What if Mr. Ignatieff doesn’t lose the Liberal leadership vote in 2006? What if Bob Rae pledges his support to Mr. Ignatieff after the third ballot? What if Jack Layton doesn’t hobble his way to a transcendent campaign in 2011? What if the 2011 election had happened six months later than it did? What if Nigel Wright had had cause to write Mike Duffy a cheque in February 2011, not February 2013? What if he’d had different advisers? What if he’d simply summoned a lifetime of study and risen to the occasion?

Maybe it still doesn’t work out somehow for Michael Ignatieff. But maybe, with a few changes in the story, a generally decent man of above-average intellect with some talent for engaging with the public and a certain ability to deliver a speech and an impressive life story, ends up prime minister.

As it is, Mr. Ignatieff’s story is still almost unremarkable. At least in that he lost.

In the history of this country, precisely 16 men have become prime minister subsequent to leading their parties to sufficient success in a federal election. (This subtracts the six prime ministers who assumed the post as a result of party succession and did not subsequently lead their party to a good enough election result.)

Five of those—Messrs. Laurier, Borden (twice), Meighen, Pearson (twice) and Harper failed before they succeeded. To those redeemed losers, you can count a larger group of of those who have led a political party of reasonably numerous candidates without ultimate success, including, depending on one’s parameters, all or some of Edward Blake, Charles Tupper, Thomas Crerar, JS Woodsworth, HH Stevens, Robert Manion, MJ Coldwell, John Bracken, George Drew, Tim Buck, Solon Low, RN Thompson, Tommy Douglas, Robert Stanfield, David Lewis, Real Caouette, Hardial Bains, Fabien Roy, Ed Broadbent, Cornelius I, John Turner, Mel Hurtig, Neil Paterson, Audrey McLaughlin, Kim Campbell, Preston Manning, Alexa McDonough, Jean Charest, Stockwell Day, Joan Russow, Jack Layton, Jim Harris, Elizabeth May and Stephane Dion. That is some 40 men and women we, as a voting public, have rejected, dismissed or, in some cases, barely even bothered to notice were candidates. And to them you might add every vaguely plausible candidate for a party leadership, a group that would, from just this century, include Bob Rae, Gerard Kennedy, Ken Dryden, Sheila Copps, John Manley, Dominic LeBlanc, Jim Prentice, Scott Brison, Tom Long, Belinda Stronach, Tony Clement, Bill Blaikie, Lorne Nystrom and Joe Comartin.

Every choice of leader is, at best, a guess. Some, like Mr. Ignatieff, might be considered experiments.

So why did the Ignatieff experiment fail? For probably all of the reasons that now seem obvious. Because he didn’t win the argument. Because he didn’t do enough to make his argument. Because he never settled on a set of ideas or a pithy idea of himself—or at least he didn’t settle early enough. Because he never quite figured out how to be the politician he needed to be to convince the public that he, not Stephen Harper, should be prime minister. Because the public wasn’t convinced in sufficient number that Stephen Harper was doing a particularly bad job at running the country. Because we tend not to change governments easily or quickly. Because minority parliaments are difficult to navigate. Because the Liberal party was not as well-constructed a machine as the Conservative party. Because Jack Layton, his political opposite, gutted him like a fish live on national television. Because town hall meetings with the general public during an election campaign might seem noble—a purer kind of democracy—but they offer little in the way of practical advantages. Because that night in Sudbury might have felt like something in the room, but it didn’t reverberate in the same way beyond those walls. Because he didn’t know what he was doing and it took him too long to figure it out (if he ever did). Because he didn’t have the time or opportunity to fail and then learn from that failure.

He didn’t fail because the Conservatives ran lots of television ads that said mean things about him. He failed because he and his party didn’t mount a sufficient response.

What else? Maybe people just didn’t like him. Possibly it was something about his tone or the way he looked or the way he smiled. Perhaps he was too willing to be introspective, too willing to break the fourth wall and speak of politics as a thing he was doing.

“It’s hard to imagine what it is he’s said or done in the last month, other than threatening an election, which I think is a key factor here, to produce such a precipitous decline,” a pollster told me in October 2009, in the midst of what might’ve been Mr. Ignatieff’s lowest point before election night in 2011. “He probably didn’t deserve the high approval rating he got in the spring, but he probably doesn’t deserve to be pilloried to the extent that he is right now. He’s gone from being the messiah to the village idiot. It’s the same guy. I’m glad it’s not me, but I find it almost kind of tragic and comic the way the public looks at these things.”

Yes, well, sure. It is tragic and it is comic, but it is also always seems somehow just. Or maybe that’s just ex post facto rationalization.

In Mr. Ignatieff’s case it seems now like his result makes perfect sense. But it is necessary to remember that he was not, from the outset, an obviously lost cause. As late as the first week of the 2011 campaign it seemed that Mr. Ignatieff had found his voice (and Jack Layton’s campaign was doomed). And then fate intervened. Or his fate became unavoidable. Or all of the missteps and shortcomings of he and his party were finally tallied.

He was supposed to be an improvement upon Stephane Dion and yet Mr. Ignatieff managed worse. It is entirely plausible that Mr. Trudeau (or Thomas Mulcair, for that matter) will fare no better. It is still somewhat surprising that Stephen Harper ever managed to succeed, let alone succeed as often and for as long as he has. For all the pundits and strategists and former strategists now working as pundits, it is basically always true that no one really knows anything for sure and everyone is just basically guessing (with varying degrees of education).

In Fire and Ashes, Mr. Ignatieff writes about fortune and timing and it is tempting to consider the fates of the men and women who have succeeded and failed—a straight comparison of the resumes of Stephen Harper and John Turner would render it mind-boggling that the latter was prime minister for 79 days and the former is likely to become at least our sixth-longest serving prime minister—and conclude that politics is fickle. But that would be too easy.

Politics, rather, is unsentimental. It is hard. It does not care about who you are or what you’ve done, only what you say and what you do and how you look in the process of doing and saying those things and whether or not your critics can successfully portray you as an unlikeable and untrustworthy monster. Given the stakes, that seems somehow just.

On the eve of becoming the Liberal party’s latest guess, Justin Trudeau pitched two ideas, “Hope and hard work.”

There is basically everything: that which must be sold and that which is required to sell it. Hard work, not merely in the degree of effort required, but in the degree of difficulty.

This stuff is hard. And it should be. Mr. Ignatieff is, if nothing else, a reminder of that.


Justin Trudeau and the ghost of Michael Ignatieff

  1. “Politics, rather, is unsentimental. It is hard. It does not care about
    who you are or what you’ve done, only what you say and what you do and
    how you look in the process of doing and saying those things and whether
    or not your critics can successfully portray you as an unlikeable and
    untrustworthy monster. Given the stakes, that seems somehow just.”

    Geez Aaron, way to wrap up, just get the question of ethics under the rug as fast as you can – it is inconsequential to the ending.
    I agree, reluctantly, that there is no way that we can hold back a party or individual from trying to successfully portray the other guy/party as unlikeable and an untrustworthy monster without doing serious damage to free speech – the public is the jury, the final arbiter on that question, always. I guess that makes all of us briefs for the defense and the prosecution? But i hope you aren’t saying the means aren’t important or relevant. That we as individuals or as institutions [ the press/Parliament] should not keep pointing out the flaws and the hypocrisy in the process. That we should not aspire to be better than this.
    I don’t think the stakes makes it just at all, not by a long shot. At the end of that road stands Vladimir Putin.

  2. Hmmm, i think i’ve wittled it down to, being the PM is more fun that not being the PM. It’s a tough row to hoe setting yourself up against the power of incumbency, particularly in this country.

  3. i thought the media failed the canadian taxpayers on 2 fronts in the 2011 election. number one, they failed to investigate jack laytons illness. everyone who runs for the highest office in the country, should be medically checked from head to toe and all information released to the public before the general election. we have to stop hiding behind these excuses of, its personal. it should not be personal when its on the tax payers dime. the media also fell down on the job when they let harper control his message by allowing harper to only answer 4 questions. if your going to ask 4 questions, make them tough and not softball questions, like when does your hockey book come out mr prime minister ? instead ask how does a pm get the time to write a hockey book on the taxpayers dime(did he hire ghost writers) ? the media controls the message, and has the obligation to bring the whole truth and nothing but the truth to its public, and if they dont get the truth to its public, then its failed the public.

    • Let me get this straight. It’s not OK for a Prime Minister to write a hockey book in his spare time, but it’s OK for Trust Fund Trudeau to smoke pot in his spare time?!

      Are you sure you have your priorities in order?

      • that’s the problem omen, he didn’t write a book. he paid a ghost writer taxpayers money to write it for him. harper spends taxpayers money like its his own.

        • You’re lying. You know your party has no chance of winning an election when you have to resort to lies to criticize the PM.

  4. Here is a freeze-frame in time of an election over about a 30 day period of time and excludes much of the Liberal demise. Let’s see: over a ten year period the Liberals had been steadily declining in political competitiveness. Most races starting in northern Ontario and moving west were all Conservative/NDP races. Quebec, prior to 2011 was basically BLOC with some lib and cons thrown in. The Lib base was in the east and parts of Ontario, and thus ignoring that in this article does a disservice when one only looks at leadership. But if looking at leadership, the most popular leader and had been for a while was Jack Layton. To ignore these realities within this article and only focus on leadership is part of the problem of “what went wrong” with Iggy.

  5. Timing is of importance. But good timing can only be seen AFTER the facts. One can plan and plan for good timing to occur, but it cannot be planned for as such.

    Indeed, one is never in full control. Events outside of careful planning will and do occur and so it can throw off the plan for ‘good timing’. It is then important to be a practical politician who can then work with the here and now and be in tune that way.

    I don’t think Ignatieff has that practical sense about him. Saying that is not an attack on him personally; it just points to the obvious shortcomings.

  6. The elusiveness of political power reminds me a bit of this clip from The Queen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgXkBPFZZFY
    “…you saw those headlines and you thought one day that might happen to me; and it will Mr Blair – quite suddenly and without warning.”

  7. Ignatieff should have hung around, been allowed to learn to do politics instead of just think about it and suffer the long hard winter of opposition like Stephen Harper did through the Chretien/Martin dynasty. But the Liberals saw Justin’s waxy curls and hear his patrician last name and just couldn’t dump Iggy quick enough.

    By contrast… Stephen Harper is the “little man from Shawinagin”‘s most astute political student. Incrementalism… absolute party discipline… able to play the everyman (think sweater vest)… focus on good managing as the PM and leadership opportunities will present themselves… like a coyote on a crippled chicken when it comes to elections, play to win the election, not the argument… they are all pages from Chretien’s playbook that Harper had to watch from the front benches as the Liberal regime ruled like The Natural Governing Party they see themselves as.

    Fast forward 10 years… Harper has been in power in one form or another for the past 7 going on 8 years. His rule has not be revolutionary nor particularly conservative. He is known for something 9 out of 10 Canadians can barely pronounce let alone explain : prorogation. Yet… despite the summer blahs and missteps over a half dozen files it just seems to me that for Stephen Harper he just can’t wait to get back to the polls and teach young Justin a lesson the hard way, just like he learned many times himself.

    • “…like a coyote on a chicken…” Nice simile.

      As a knuckle-dragging partisan, I’d rather hope hIs advisors talk Harper out of a punishing frontal assault. I can’t see it’ll be necessary with Trudeau; plus, it’s the wrong play. Assuming by ‘political animal’ Ignatieff meant Bambi with handlers, seeing Harperwolf tear out his throat will generate a few too many condemnatory columns and cartoons. Better affable disdain than evisceration. (That’s the Liberal Party’s job after the next election.)

      • Justines soft curls make him both a delicious target and sympathetic “up-and-comer”… so perhaps the “now now son, the world just doesn’t work that way” approach is best.

        But if the Liberals and the CBC go negative it will take every Conservative operative from here to Red Deer to keep Harper’s cro-magnon conservative medulla oblongata from devouring The Anointed One.

        • Geez there are a lot of men who rave on and on about Justin’s hair. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Men who focus on Trudeau’s looks more than women do, and obsess over his hair and eyes.

          • What are you talking about? No one mentioned (or alluded to, or “raved” about) tonsorial envy.

            And, “Makes you wonder …?” about what, exactly? That perhaps we both dream of playing Tudeau’s flesh pipe? We long to be ‘p*sser k*ssers’? You closeted ‘progessive’ homophobes fool no one, least of all those given to honestly loathing the pursuit of homosexuality on general priniciples. I contend you’re afraid of admiting the very concept of homosexuality repels you, and makes you despair of the ongoing despoiliation of our culture. Deal with your nascent fascism, you libidinous trollop! Forward, slutwalker!

          • Let’s face it Justine has been put forward precisely to win back the Liberal’s core voters from the NDP: women. It’s a clear strategy from the Libs: 1) this election win back the support of women from the NDP (no Jack = no sympathy vote) 2) get back to official opposition status 3) keep the Tories from a majority gov. then 4) hope for Conservative leadership change and 5) defeat new Conservative gov on budget forcing new election before new leader has any track record to differentiate him from Harper. New & Experienced versus Old & Inexperienced = Liberal majority.

            All thanks to Justine’s locks. Hahahahaha.

          • It’s because he looks like his mother. and it makes us think of her.

            Her hair and her eyes, we can’t get over having a sort of Rolling Stones point of view when we think of our little Mrs T.

        • That’s the dilemma–Plan ‘B’ isn’t a cinch.

          That said, I think the real problem facing the Tories is feeling too comfortable. The ‘scandals’ are genuinely minor. All things remaining the same, our biggest trade partner’s economy will have to improve somewhat, regardless of who’s managing the tiller, and the “events, dear boy, events” curse will run its course. After that, fingers crossed, plans succeeding, the knaves are confounded come the next eleciton.

    • Where should he have hung around? The people of Etobicoke-Lakeshore showed him the door after having had five years of him hanging around; was it because of Justin’s curls?

      Canadians may not have handed the keys of the country to Dion or Martin, but they managed to attract the confidence of at least the voters of St-Laurent — Cartierville and LaSalle — Emard, respectively. The people of Vancouver Quadra kept reelecting John Turner for almost a decade after he failed to become Prime minister. In their cases, the decision to keep hanging around — or not — was greatly facilitated by voter support somewhere, a luxury that has eluded Mr Ignatieff, which was compounded by the loss of Official Opposition status.

      • Well… i mean the Liberals could have found him a by-election somewhere to win… but with Justine in the wings and all the old hands wanting to rush the Cannabis King onto the stage, Iggy was punted back to Harvard or was it the Munk Centre… i forget.

    • The luxury of “suffer(ing) the long hard winter of opposition like Stephen Harper did” involves the prerequisite of getting elected by the people of his own riding (Etobicoke). They tossed him out in favour of a no-name, relatively young Conservative MP, which pretty much says it all.

      Otherwise, while it’s feasible to be leader of a party without being a sitting MP (like the Bloc’s current leader), it really doesn’t help much. He’d be accused of being even more out-of-touch (since he wouldn’t participate in the House), and of arrogance/power grab by staying on as leader. The attack ads practically write themselves.

    • Very well written

  8. Wherry can barely contain himself. This is a long column for him.