Justin Trudeau, Quebec and the possibility of an early test - Macleans.ca

Justin Trudeau, Quebec and the possibility of an early test

Looking ahead to a by-election in Bourassa


Martin Patriquin takes a good look at Justin Trudeau’s appeal and success in Quebec.

The likely Liberal leader’s standing in the province might be tested very quickly. Denis Coderre, the MP for Bourassa, is thought to be preparing to run for mayor of Montreal. Last fall, he said he would remain an MP until at least the next Liberal leader is chosen in April. If Mr. Coderre steps down, the Liberals have a seat to defend and it’s not obviously a safe one for them. In 2011, the New Democrats got within 3,280 votes of Mr. Coderre and he finished with his lowest vote total in his seven elections there.

So Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals will have to hope to hold it and the Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats will, with some justification, be hoping to pick it up—with visions of Outremont possibly dancing in each side’s respective heads—and the final result will no doubt be interpreted as having some greater meaning for both sides.

(And then, as well, partisans and pundits might bother Daniel Paille, the seatless leader of the Bloc, with questions about whether he’ll run in Bourassa.)


Justin Trudeau, Quebec and the possibility of an early test

  1. Fun and entirely baseless speculation: Brian Topp said he was going to run in Quebec.

    More fun and baseless speculation: The NDP wins Bourassa the same night the Liberals win Trinity-Spadina.

    • On the first point: Unlikely. Topp is managing the NDP campaign in BC.

      On the second point: I doubt Chow gives up her seat soon enough (next Toronto municipal election isn’t until 2014).

  2. It all depends: if the Justin Campaign will replay the video tape which was aired just before the Calgary by-election, then the Justin Liberals will do very well in Quebec.

    But then again, maybe Justin will need to up that offer since Mulcair has basically sold out Canada when being in the US (of all places, but that scores bonus points in Quebec). Perhaps Justin will announce something even more promising to Quebeckers before the next by-election. Exciting times indeed!