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LATEST POLL SHOCKER!!!


 

Unweighted average, first three polls (Ekos, Harris-Decima, Angus Reid) taken after the first day of the campaign:

Con 37     Lib 26     NDP 18     Green 9     Bloc 9

Unweighted average, four most recent polls (Ekos, Nanos, Harris-Decima, Strategic Counsel) as of Sept 30:

Con 36     Lib 25     NDP 19     Green 10    Bloc 10

All those polls (more than 50 in all), all those breathless headlines, all that instant analysis, all that money…

And they are all within a percentage point of where they started.


 

LATEST POLL SHOCKER!!!

  1. All those polls (more than 50 in all), all those breathless headlines, all that instant analysis, all that money…

    …and all the Maclean’s blogs and irrelevant commentary and theories.

  2. Which Dot reads religiously and comments on all the time…

  3. …in apparently a futile effort to increase the level of “debate”.

  4. Because apparently she can’t find the magazine anywhere.

  5. Paul–That’s irrelevant, Dot said so.

  6. Ah. Point taken.

  7. Oh, stop being the voice of sanity re punditry, Coyne. (Two times, now — on plagiarism, then on polls.)

    Let us have our fun with breathless reactions and instant analyses.

  8. Think of it this way. Lots of people like to ride roller coasters even though they inevitably end up right where they started.

    On an unrelated note, how come nobody has mentioned that the NY Sun suddenly folded yesterday?

  9. Speaking of can’t finding anything..

    I was just this moment trying to find the link to The Sunday Edition with Michael Enright, September 21, 2008, the portion on Negative Advertising (first hour) with guests:

    “Allan Gregg, Research Professional and Social Commentator, founder of several polling/consulting firms, host of TVO’s Allan Gregg in Conversation and regular guest on CBC Television’s At Issue; Warren Kinsella, Toronto Lawyer, Consultant, Political commentator and author. Former Liberal Back Room Honcho; Joan M. Phillips Professor of Marketing at Loyola University in Chicago, author of numerous works on political advertising and an assiduous follower of political campaigns’.

    There was commentary about the nature of younger journalists – reporting more on process than substance -I believe someone (Kinsella?) referenced one of my pet peeves – the free publicity of “Oily the Splot”. I probably read more into that commentary than he/they meant.

    I’d link, but I’ll be screened.

  10. In music, the pauses and silence are every bit as important as the notes. So too can we say that unchanging numbers are no less significant than wildly swinging ones.

  11. On an unrelated note, how come nobody has mentioned that the NY Sun suddenly folded yesterday?

    Hurra…oh, wait. I thought that read New York Post. Oh, well…a small victory every time the free market speaks with regard to the value of “conservative” ideas.

  12. how come nobody has mentioned that the NY Sun suddenly folded yesterday?

    Only if by “suddenly” you mean “talked about nonstop for the past month on US media blogs”

    http://gawker.com/5045130/sun-setting

  13. Frankly, the only poll that matters right now is the one showing voting intentions in Quebec.

    Speaking of “saving the furniture,” sounds to me like the Harperites should focus on savind their existings seats in La Belle Province rather than trying to expand at this point.

  14. On their worst polling day the Cons are comfortable above their ’06 election day mark in Quebec. Just as importantly the Bloc is well below their ’06 mark. I don’t see how the Cons could possibly lose seats in Quebec.

    The same math applies to Ontario as well: the Cons are well up, and the Libs are well down.

  15. Thank you.

    So, how do we get the media to stop breathlessly reporting on each poll and start covering the fact that the Conservatives have NO PLATFORM.

  16. I wish the media would examine the widely-held view that polls serve mostly to delineate the boundaries of acceptable opinion as much as they survey that opinion. Frankly, I think they should be banned during election campaigns. And I’ve been saying that since the 80’s, so it’s not that I’m teh biast! or anything.

  17. Keep wishing, Ti-Guy. As far as I saw from the podcast of that issue panel thing Coyne is on, he thinks wall-to-wall polls are just peachy.

    Which makes sense. What kind of reporter or editor is going to give up the almost ludicrously easy copy that polls provide?

    Sure, they’ll rail against them, go on and on about “elections about nothing” in columns and blogs…but if editors didn’t actually love the horse-race, they would direct their bloggers and writers and hacks and whatnot to not write about it. They could write about real policy discussions.

    (You know, like all that policy stuff in the Rae speech that Coyne ignored in his rush to defend Steve’s lacy-white virtue.)

  18. Comparing that poll to the 2006 results, we see that the the Libs have lost maybe 5 points to the NDP and Greens, while the CPC hasn’t increased its support measurably.

    So will the split be good for the Tories, such that they get an increase in seats, maybe even a majority?

    That appears to be about all that’s in question, at least at this point.

    – JV

  19. Weren’t the Libs/Cons tied in several polls before the election?

  20. “Weren’t the Libs/Cons tied in several polls before the election?”

    Yep. That sweater vest pre-writ ad campaign was a lulu.

    (More sensible explanation: it’s only once campaigns begin that many people start to pay attention and give their vote serious thought.)

  21. boudica: “Speaking of “saving the furniture,” sounds to me like the Harperites should focus on savind their existings seats in La Belle Province rather than trying to expand at this point.”

    You’re joking, right? The CPC owns Quebec City, and will sweep every seat there this time. Fortier might be toast, but it wasn’t his seat to begin with.

    If the CPC register less than 11 seats in Quebec (what they had), I’ll jump up my own a-hole.

  22. I remember watching one of Nik Nanos’ poll analyses once… …dear God he was going on and on about one-to-two percent daily blips. Everything was within the margin of error, and then he went on to analyse REGIONAL figures, which are practically worthless in a 1200-nationwide poll.

    It was so pointless and banal that I was pretty sure at some point he was gonna let one rip and then explain how the noxious fumes give insight into the rising NDP numbers or something.

  23. Is this unique to the 2008 election – the poll rigor mortis that is – or is this common in all elections? Don’t the polls always start to move in the last fortnight unless there is a major event (e.g. RCMP in 2006) to cause a shift earlier?

  24. Plugging those numbers in the Hill Knowlton election predictor you get a very strong Conservative minority.

    Barry Kay’s current seat projection is as follows:

    Cons 155
    Libs 79
    NDP 30
    Bloc 43
    Other 1

    Kay’s numbers on a the Conservative getting a very conservative 5 seat pick-up in Quebec. I suspect they’ll do better than that.

    Anyway looks grim for the Libs.

  25. Plugging those numbers in the Hill Knowlton election predictor

    Would you like me to write you up a script for that? I could also automate it to post a comment here when required. Then you wouldn’t have to interrupt your sessions of World of Warcraft.

  26. I forgot to mention that Kay’s numbers place the Conservatives into a majority.

    Anyway the French debate is set to begin soon. I sure hope that Quebeckers will turn away from the perpetual oppositon mode and finally break from the Bloc. Harper’s got his chance tonight, hope he makes the best of it.

  27. I don’t know, the Polling Observatory (which is corrects for margin of error and for the historic bias of each polling firm) shows some very interesting trends through the campaign. They may be at the point where they started at (sort of) but the trends suggest that the campaign has mattered to some degree.

    http://pollob.politics.ox.ac.uk/

  28. Does anyone think the Green vote will be that high on election day? Once you distribute a chunk of their vote away I suspect the Cons are still out of majority territory.

  29. We can’t ban polling because it influences us. Then we’d have to ban everything that influences us. There has to be some other reason for banning polling during a campaign.

    A poll is a poll. I think we ought to ban the Sunshine Girl before we ban polling data during a campaign.

  30. Then we’d have to ban everything that influences us.

    Polls don’t influence us…they manipulate us (and the politicians, with their marketing approach to campaigning), especially in the absence of effective reporting on issues relevant to democratic governance.

    I’m mystified by some people’s full-throated support of propaganda these days.

  31. “A poll is a poll. I think we ought to ban the Sunshine Girl before we ban polling data during a campaign.”

    Where can I vote for that policy proposal?

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