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Location, location, location


 

Green Party communiqué: Elizabeth May will be campaigning in her riding of Central Nova this weekend — and will stay there for the rest of the campaign.


 

Location, location, location

  1. Wow. She really wants to get elected.

    A strategy to cool Green support throughout Canada and thus bolster Dion?

  2. Hasn’t Mackay’s vote total gone down in 3 straight elections?

    I’ve always thought that getting into the debates would cause May to get the “Party Leader Bounce” and ensure her win.

  3. In my opinion, probably a good strategy on her part on two fronts:

    Firstly: Unlike all the other party leaders, Ms. May will actually have to fight to get elected. Something she can’t really do if she’s all over the country. She’s raised her profile by getting in the debate, but she still has to get elected.

    Secondly: The Green Party, one can only assume, has a far smaller war chest to draw from than the other parties. If they’re not paying the expenses for her to travel around the country, then that leaves more money to allocate to candidates that might have a chance to get elected.

    That all said, while I wish Ms. May luck I doubt her chances of ultimately being elected in Central Nova are much greater than mine.

    On the other hand, can you even imagine the chaos if it were to happen? It would be worth it for the frantic emails from the Tory war room alone.

  4. Those three straight elections saw an NDP “surge” based on the Martin conservative budgets as well as some very good NDP candidates. It all depends where the 10,000 Liberal votes from last time go.
    A lot will stay home. Some will go NDP. Some will go Green. MacKay will win but it should be closer again.

  5. DR: Peter MacKay’s previous election results:

    1997 (Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough): 18,196 (42.34%)
    2000 (Pictou—Antigonish—Guysborough): 19,256 (48.31%)
    2004 (Central Nova): 16,376 (43.27%)
    2006 (Central Nova): 17,134 (40.66%)

  6. This seems like as good a place as any to ask a question regarding last night’s debate:

    Anybody know which (muslim) countries May is expecting to jump right in and help out in Afghanistan once Canada and NATO pull out?

    Seems to me that every country that’s willing to help is already there.

  7. Reform took 8% of the vote in 1997, and the CA took 14% in 2000. If the CA-PC merger was a happy family reunion, where the hell is everbody?

  8. Sorry – 7% CA in 2000.

  9. Lizzie is on a mission to avenge the old PC party. Her and David Orchard. This is religon for them, hence why she is running in Mackay’s riding. Of course with David Orchard it might be more about the David Orchard religon.

    Its quite personal, from Lizzies perspective. Peter did an unthinkable thing and deserves to be punished. This is a very old battle.

    It would be interesting to hear from anyone in that riding as to the local betting lines. She cannot be ignored, thats for sure. But interesting if she does lose….she probably could have won in a number of SWO or 905 Ontario ridings, especially if she could have cut the same deal she did for Central Nova.

    Be interesting to see if she stays or is allowed to stay if she loses. Or does she go off to become an Anglican Priest. Then David Orchard can take over that party.

  10. “will stay there for the rest of the campaign.” Lets hope that’s a promise.

  11. By now MacKay must have personally knocked on every door in Central Nova.

  12. BTW I agree this was a bad bad move on her part to run against MacKay. Winning *any* seat would have as much impact for the Greens as toppling a high-profile minister.

    There are any number of ridings down here in Southwestern Ontario where she’d be the favourite without a Liberal in the game. I think she’d have a good shot in Coastal BC as well.

  13. Lizzie is on a mission to avenge the old PC party.

    Stephen, I don’t agree – much more simple/complex than that. And I don’t agree that she was a PC – she’s far closer in ideology to the NDP, you need to look closer at some of the policies she has imposed upon the GPC since she became leader – very far left.

    Read her recent book – How to change the world in your spare time – you’ll find more insight on her motivations and media strategies.

  14. I see that there is another “Andrew” here. I will be known now and forever as “Andrew the Lesser”. The comment at 8:05 pm is mine. Sorry about that, just “Andrew”. Just to repeat it: “will stay there for the rest of the campaign.” Lets hope that’s a promise.

  15. Surely there are polls from the riding?

  16. She should be in southern B.C. where her Party has a better chance of winning.

  17. No she and the GPC need a win in “ordinary citizen” country, so that they will be taken seriously. Getting elected in yoga mat territory leaves them as marginal. GPC is more strategic than some people think.

  18. Charles H: dude, I’m not trashing your comment (“chaos in the Tory war room if she won”), but I must say, if there is any currently-Conservative-held riding across the country that Harper might not be sad to lose, Central Nova is it. The cock of the walk (esp now that Bernier is cabinet toast) disappears, and Harper gets to be an even bigger fish in small pond. I don’t have the time or inclination to look this stuff up, but I’d love to see where Central Nova ranks in terms of goodies handed out– must be more than any Lib riding but it must be last in terms of Conservative-held ridings…

  19. Has there been any polling published for Central Nova? Does May have a chance to beat MacKay?

  20. Seriously, what is the fuss over Elizabeth May about. She is a left wing fringe party crack pot who, like the rest of the opposition parties, is try to fear-monger us into believing Canada is some kind of toxic waste dump and that the green house gases coming from Canada are somehow more significant then the 98 or 99% of GHG’s that come from the rest of the world. She cites Denmark as a model of success, yet what does Denmark have in common with Canada? You could stuff it into some small corner of one of our bigger provinces. It took Lizzie a week to do her little cross country train ride, she could have done Denmark in a half day. I just don’t get the buzz with her.

  21. Dot, being a PC, especially from the Maritimes was a pretty malleable concept. It meant being anti liberal.

    It would have been easier for the old PC’s to form alliances with the NDP than the Liberals. Lots of of “red tories” felt closer to the socially “progressive” policies of the left. Some made the jump to the Liberals, because they licked power. But those who went NDP associated witht eh nobless oblige part of the PC party.

    May is ideologically happier in the Greens, she believes the main plank and it retains the fiscal conservatism that Red tories held.

    Now much of the rest of her philosphy is as utopian impractical as only a someone who has grown up in western civilization can be. While I dont doubt she works hard I dont think she has ever HAD to work hard. Its all about self actualization with this bunch, see the seminary on the side thing.

    As I said, the Mackay thing is personal for her and her bunch, its a private war. Clark is part of it, May, Orchard and a number of others that thought the Progressive Conservative party was a national treasure.

    They are old line tories, in the classic definition, and they will get their party again. Either by infecting the Liberal Party or by taking over the Green party.

    For the moment they are a group without a home and should the Liberals dimisih as a significant force, their reason for being will disappear. For all their passive aggressive niceness, the PC party was never for anything, it was always against, opposed to or a mirror image of something else. This was its fatal flaw and why it was so fractious.

    If May loses she will go off and do something else. I expect to the Orchard Davidians moving in after that, the Greens would be wise to keep them out as well.

  22. Derek Pearce: I don’t argue that Harper might be glad to see MacKay go, but at the same time it is a very high profile riding, and the results for Central Nova come out very early during the night. It’s the type of thing that would dominate the talking heads’ commentary for at least a little while.

  23. I agree with Charles…. there is no way Harper wants to lose any seats, regardless of his personal opinion about the conservative MP or candidate.

  24. May is ideologically happier in the Greens, she believes the main plank and it retains the fiscal conservatism that Red tories held.

    Not true – read the GPC platform pre/post May or read Jeffrey Simpson’s review of their policy platform or watch AC in last Thursday’s At Issue. Far, far left. The only reason she’s with the Greens is that the leadership position opened up, and it afforded her the maximum amount of personal exposure to put forward her agenda (which involves Harper bashing).

    Running against Cons Minister McKay is part of that strategy to generate maximum media exposure. It’s a bonus he was a former PC interim leader.

    And claiming she is “fiscally conservative” while her platform and often stated positions are clearly not, is an attempt to broaden the appeal beyond the protest NDP supporters, and appeal to ex PC’s. It’s obviously working to some degree. It appears you’ve been fooled.

    But, I agree, she is very close to Orchard in ideology (anti-NAFTA, anti-nuke, pro organic farming (he is one)… irritating to me whenever I hear them speak.) He would fit in with her Green Party, true.

    Her alliances/allegiances/positions are all tactical to affect maximum exposure/influence with a largely unquestioning media that she strives to ensure that they like her.

  25. May is running a distant 3rd place, far behind McKay and 2nd place Lorifice (NDP). May has essentially prevented the NDP from taking this race unless she drops out.
    That’s what happens when one parachuts yourself in a riding where you are not connected and there is no riding organization.
    In 2006, the Greens got a total of 846 votes. What was she thinking?

  26. And her application to Dion’s Liberal’s continues – look at what a dedicated local candidate she is!

    If there is an “oh-so-close” loss, there will be some hand wringing, some time off from the Green Party to think about her future and then after sufficient time has passed (say about 10-12 months or more) we’ll see Queen Elizabeth revealed as the Liberal Enviro critic (or some such)…

    That’s my conspiracy theory and I’m sticking to it!

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