71

My eerily prescient call


 

Fascists 133

Crooks Notaleaders 88

Commies 34

Traitors 51

Tree-huggers 0

Loners 2


 
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My eerily prescient call

  1. Canadians 0.

    “News” media: Ka-CHING!

  2. Pretty close.

    But for the arts cuts and jailing 14 year-olds, methinks the numbers would be vastly different.

    C’est la vie.

  3. The plagiarised speech in Parliament was unfortunate as well.

  4. Gee. Not even one tree-hugger ? That’s cold.

  5. So, if you’re close to being correct, will anyone consider this a “victory”? Will anyone consider this a “defeat”?

    If Parliament was SO disfunctional before the writ was dropped that the PM felt he absolutely HAD to call an election, and the election just returns (basically) the same House, then don’t we have to go right back to the polls?

    Finally, will the Tories consider themselves to have a “mandate” under the above scenario to implement the platform that they unveiled a whole 6 days ago? ‘Cause I haven’t read it since Tuesday, and I’ve got to figure that 95% of Canadians are in the asme boat.

  6. It’s pretty much a defeat all around, at least in terms of the popular vote. If the polls are correct, the Tories will drop a couple of points from the last election (and half a dozen points from their intra-campaign high). The Liberals will give up four or five points, turning in their worst performance ever. The NDP and the Bloc, though they both climbed in the course of the campaign, will come in about the same as they were in 2006. The only unambiguous winners are the Greens, having doubled their vote — who will get no seats.

  7. Quickly now.
    Some one give the liberals some money so we can have another election.
    The three stooges, Dion-Layton-May are not going to be happy and will want to campaign again to prove to the messiah Obama that Canadians are worthy to live in his la-la land.

  8. Lord Kitchener, the motivation for this election was obvious. Harper obviously knew that the economic $hit was going to hit the fan, and didn’t want to be stuck in an election triggered by the Opposition shortly after that happened. So he tried to beat the financial turmoil. He missed it by three weeks. The “dysfunctional Parliament” was simply an excuse. After not hearing a peep about the possibility of an election for most of the summer, suddenly Harper decides in late August that Parliament is dysfunctional? It’s been dysfunctional for 30 years or more. Certainly even Harper cheer-leaders (like myself) can see through that one.

  9. I think the more modern terminology for “Loners” would be “Lone Wolves”.

  10. For what it’s worth, Ralph Klein was on CBC radio here this morning, and predicted a samll majority or big minority for Harper.

  11. Raging Ranter

    Mostly agree with your view but elections do stop dysfunctionality for a while. Whoever forms the government, I would argue a new minority government is thought of as having a mandate, at least for 12/18 months.

    I also think about what T Flanagan and his articles where he discusses the desire of Harper to put Libs in a jam. They aren’t doing well financially, they don’t like their leader, but what do they do about it.

  12. So much for a possible Notaleaders/Commie coalition if the Fascists lose a confidence vote. They’d need the Traitors to be part of the coalition, which would probably irk the ROC so much that the Fascists would win a majority the next time around. Not that it’s even in the cards. The head Traitor and Notaleader leader don’t really get along, and the head Traitor would be a traitor to the Traitors if he worked with the Notaleader leader.

  13. The prescience on display is truly impressive.

  14. Another for what it’s worth …

    Prior to our last Alberta provincial election, many pundits were predicting, and the polls were showing, a small majority for Stelmach’s PCs. The result was a surprisingly big majority of about 30 seats.

    Rod Love, Klein’s ex-right-hand man, writing in the Calgary Herald a few days afterwards, said that what the pundits and polls missed was the strength of the PCs Get Out the Vote machine.

    Last remaining question: How strong is the CPC GOTV machine, compared to the LPC (and NDP and BLOC) GOTV machines ?

    Just to show I’m not totally partisan, the Alberta Liberal Party had a fairly weak GOTV machine, compared to the PCs. But it seemed to me that Liberal voters here should have been pumped up by the polls, and gone out to help their party. In a previous by-election, the Libs managed to knock off Klein’s replacement in the Calgary Elbow riding.

  15. Raging,

    You may be right (re Loners vs Lone Wolves), but Lone Wolves is unacceptably positive-sounding.

  16. Ralph’s right.

    The national press corps doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, on the front lines. Even Quebec isn’t as bad as being portrayed.

    The CPC ground troops are in full action mode (the same ones that donated in exponentially greater numbers than to any other party).

    It’s going to be fun to read the headlines on Wed.

  17. LOL!

    Well done. My prediction is by next election the Liberals will have shed all the hype and returned to representing the hole in the donut.

    No easy task. Harper has it scheduled for Valentine’s Day.

  18. The national press corps doesn’t have a clue what’s going on, on the front lines. Even Quebec isn’t as bad as being portrayed.

    You don’t know this, you silly ConBot.

    It’s the fact that they’re not even wrong that’s so disturbing.

    *sigh*….It’s going to take a generation for society to re-learn the difference between an assertion and an argument.

  19. CJ/Kody,

    Remember that King Ralph predicted that Harper would lose at the start of the 2006 campaign. I wouldn’t bet the farm on his prognostication abilities.

  20. As for whether this was a victory or defeat, or what it was intended to be – incumbent parties have gained support in only one election since 1962. They fall by an average of 5.7%. So a Conservative minority means Harper did as much as he could have. That said he now gets saddled with any potential future recession, AND because he is in a minority parliament, the opposition can pull the plug at their convenience.

    On the other hand, the Liberals are mired in debt, and have a leadership race impending (and if not will run with the one man in the country that makes Harper look charismatic in contrast).

    “Last remaining question: How strong is the CPC GOTV machine, compared to the LPC (and NDP and BLOC) GOTV machines ?”

    That is definitely a good question. I do note that the Liberals tended to do surprisingly well in the 2004 and 2006 elections. That was partly because last minute momentum was on their side, but it wouldn’t surprise me if a good get out the vote effort was important as well.

  21. I think you’re being a bit generous for the notaleaders and that the fascists and commies will each get about 5 more seats than you predict.

    By the way, another winner will be Maxime Bernier.

    Given the slim Cabinet pickens in Quebec, Harper will likely be forced to give him a portfolio. The only condition will be that it does not have a security component because I hear he has problems with safekeeping documents. Bernier didn’t do badly as Industry Minister and may get Small Business or some other economic portfolio this time around as we begin to see his rehabilitation. If people in Quebec complain, Harper can simply remind them that he gave them 75 opportunities to find someone else fit for Cabinet and it was the voters that blew it, not him.

  22. LKO,

    Here is something to think about. The LPC will be in debt up its eyeballs post election, and still have leadership debt problems. The LPC relies almost entirely on the $1.75 per vote subsidy for its financial survival, and is therefore vulnerable in two ways:

    1. Less votes = less money. The govenment is not changing this election, so turnout will probably be 60%, for a 7% revenue drop. They will likely receive around 25% of the popular vote, a further 17% drop in vote count, the combined result being a roughly a 25% reduction in pulic subsidy.

    2. The CPC rely mainly on individual donors for funding, and continuing in government helps that process. Say PM Harper’s next budget contains a 50% reduction in the per vote subsidy as an austerity measure, think it gets defeated?

    The combination of these two results in the 75% revenue stream that step one left the LPC with being reduced by half to 37.5%. See where this is going? Defeats come in many forms. I think if you can’t service your debts, or meet your lease obligations, or pay your employees you go out of business.

    I hope there is a crash cart near wherever Ti-Guy is.

  23. “That said he now gets saddled with any potential future recession,”

    that won’t help. At least as important is the number of bridges he burned to hang on.

  24. On a side note, Andrew’s nicknames for the parties show how much more effective the Liberal war-room is than their Conservative counterparts. The Liberals have kept the story-line on how right-wing and frightening the Conservatives are, letting Coyne lampoon that as “Fascists”, and similarly marginalised the New Democrats as too far left. In contrast, the Conservatives have not generated any clear story about the Liberals other than “Dion is a weenie”.

  25. I hope there is a crash cart near wherever Ti-Guy is.

    You better hope Harper has a crash cart nearby when the Democrats remember who provided the Bushies with a billion dollar slush fund.

  26. I thought I read “boners.” I always love watching “Growing Pains” on the Christian channel, especially when Mike Seaver talks about his special friend, Boner. You can’t say “fugunicula” on CTS. Yet, you can say “boner.”

  27. “The Liberals have kept the story-line on how right-wing and frightening the Conservatives are, letting Coyne lampoon that as “Fascists”,”

    boohoo

    a party with no platform and a personality cult has the lead. take it from there.

  28. It’s probably a sign I’ve read too many American editorials where I’m not sure whether ‘commies’ and ‘traitors’ are the NDP and the Bloc, or vice-versa.

  29. Style, you are certainly right. Dion is a weenie is a craptastic attack – the fact that Dion’s dream of dreams is to do better than Paul Martin in 2006 (the second worst result in Liberal party history) supports this view. Dion’s “best Prime Minister” numbers staying consistently below Jack Layton’s are another reason why this wasn’t an effective line of attack.

    You see that was the Liberal plan all along. Let expectations get so low that Dion not crying during the debates would be seen as a victory. Then SURGE from 22% support to 26 or 27%. And remember that Dion clobbered Harper in the polls when first selected as leader.

  30. To Calgary Junkie:

    Alberta as a paradigm for Canada as a whole? I hope not. There just aren’t any unknowns in Alberta politics.

  31. I generally agree with your predictions, though I think you are under-estimating the Bloc support.

  32. Peter,

    That’s assuming that Elections Canada doesn’t come down on CPC first.

  33. Maybe the fact that Dion is not very good explains his low numbers? I am willing to be persuaded that the Tory war-room is more effective than the Liberal’s, but it will be a tough go. Every time Harper opened his mouth, the Liberal war-room was able to attack him as a right-wing demagogue – either saying “sure, he says that now, but what’s his real agenda?” or “see, this reveals his true agenda, even if you have to misinterpret what he’s said or ignore the facts”. With Dion, the Tories couldn’t keep attacking him without being accused of overly personal attacks or classlessness. Every time Dion saw a modest boost in his favourability ratings, it seemed the story was all about how off-base the Tory attacks had been. Dion hasn’t helped his party, but I’m not convinced the Tory war-room helped theirs either.

  34. Fascists 133

    Crooks Notaleaders 88

    Commies 34

    Traitors 51

    Tree-huggers 0

    Loners 2

    commandeers
    mouse-ears
    oversteers
    bombadiers
    disappears
    and…
    volunteers

    Cheers!

  35. With Dion, the Tories couldn’t keep attacking him without being accused of overly personal attacks or classlessness.

    And being accused of lying, don’t forget that one.

    Hey, if the Conservatives hadn’t been so transparently personal, classness or dishonest in their attacks, I suspect the Liberal “war room” would have had a much harder time.

  36. Where have the Conservatives been dishonest? On the other hand, Dion has an ad running saying Harper plans to “slash the social safety net” and nobody blinks.

  37. Style

    Many Lib supporters seem to think playing footage of Dion shrugging his shoulders, and moaning about how hard it is to make priorities, is a lie somehow and everything they say, no matter how outrageous, is fact/fair comment.

  38. Finn….you beat me to it. Having been here on past a decade now, I really fail to see how Albertans provincial polling/voting habits has any realtion to that of the rest of the country. You could make Layton the leader of the Provincial Cons here and he’d still win a majority.

  39. On the other hand, Dion has an ad running saying Harper plans to “slash the social safety net” and nobody blinks.

    Aren’t social programs and nanny-statism anathema to the Conservatives?

    When it comes to political rhetoric, the lies have to be judged on their gravitas…how far they depart from objective reality. Accusing Harper, who headed the NCC for many years, an agency the purpose of which is to get rid of universal health care, of wanting to slash the social safety net seems almost an acknowledgement of principle, consistency.

  40. Many Lib supporters seem to think playing footage of Dion shrugging his shoulders, and moaning about how hard it is to make priorities, is a lie somehow

    Actually, Conservative dishonesty has less to do with the Liberals and more to do with how’s they’ve governed…Emerson, Vellacott, Fortier, In-and-Out, Cadman, etc. etc. ad infinitum.

    What’s most disturbing is how silent Conservative supporters are in the face of all these outrages. I suppose a lot of you, being well, 14 year-old boys, think is how the game is played, but…it really isn’t, not for very long, anyway.

  41. Hazzard,

    Alberta voters must be the bovine equivalent of sheep. They are reminiscent of African Bongos, the “only Tragelaphid in which both sexes have horns.”

  42. Finn: “Alberta as a paradigm for Canada as a whole? I hope not. There just aren’t any unknowns in Alberta politics.”

    To Finn and Hazzard, you are reading more into my posting than I intended.

    I’m basically posting an interesting little tid-bid–Klein’s small majority/big minority prediction. And recalling Love’s Calgary Herald op-ed. You all can make what you want of Klein’s prediction and Love’s observation. They are what they are.

    I’m not putting Alberta up as a paradigm for Canada. Not at all. I’m saying the relative strengths of GOTV machines working on election day, is a legitimate consideration for any election–at the provincial and at the national level.

    And then Rod Love’s observation re “pundits GOTV blind spot” is surely worth pondering at this stage of the game. Love played a big role in getting Klein elected as mayor, MLA, PC leader, and as Premier.

    In some ways, Love is to Klein as Rove is to Bush. Except Love’s political landscape was a lot more friendly to him than Rove’s political landscape. So Rove is much more the genius.

  43. So how will the Harper = Bush thing work when Bush is no longer President. Hmmm Harper = Obama…can’t see the Libs running that ad.

    GOTV is key, its the one thing that the long term planning and resources of the Tories and NDP will payoff with. The rusty Liberal machine just isnt there and the Greens are too small, and arguing over whether their Robo Dialer should say

    “Vote Green, unless the Liberals are in the lead or if the NDP has a chance…but vote Green unless you think it isnt too much trouble and might not be a waste of your vote…er …, oh eff it nevermind”

  44. “Aren’t social programs and nanny-statism anathema to the Conservatives?”

    No, not really. Even on health care, Harper’s position when he was outside of politics was that Canada’s system should be more like the system in France or the UK. These are hardly fascist dystopias.

  45. I think a win is a win. The Liberals cannot hope to bring down the Tories anytime soon due to their party finances. The Conservatives will have a de facto majority as they were seeking. It will be interesting what they’ll do with it. I find it interesting that free trade with the EU has not come up during this election. Perhaps negotiations were contingent on a demonstratable mandate. Harper will indeed go in with a strong hand if he wins. His piece about free trade with the provinces were perhaps a “getting the house in order before we enter the trading big leagues” exercise.

  46. “If Parliament was SO disfunctional before the writ was dropped that the PM felt he absolutely HAD to call an election, and the election just returns (basically) the same House, then don’t we have to go right back to the polls?”

    The Liberals won’t resist the temptation to remove Dion. Unlike Harper, who get a few stabs at it from the Conservatives, mostly because of a lack of credible leadership alternatives, the Liberals have Ignatieff. His biggest plus: he’s popular in Quebec. His biggest negative, Iraq, is now essentially a non-issue.

    Mostly, it means a change in strategy the Libs absolutely have to pull off, which is a tack back to the centre. They’ve clearly not won any support by going Left, either from the NDP who are staying solid, or from the Greens, despite the fact that Dion’s pretty pro-enviro.

    “I think a win is a win. The Liberals cannot hope to bring down the Tories anytime soon due to their party finances”
    Actually, the only thing the Liberals can do soon IS bring down the government, the elections are free for them.

  47. Ti-Guy

    What do you have to say about the $40 Million of stolen taxpayers money that is still missing from ADSCAM and is still being investigated by the RCMP? And as you know Dion was a Liberal MP from PQ at that time and he says he knows nothing…right!

    It amazes me why anybody would vote for the Liberal Party until this money is found and people go to jail.

  48. Paul: “I find it interesting that free trade with the EU has not come up during this election.”

    It has, but so briefly I begin to think I was one of a VERY few people in the whole of Canada to catch it. The problem with free trade with the EU, at least from the Conservative point of view, is that they are most likely to require those they trade with to adhere to the EUs most/least stringent environmental policy. I’m sorry I don’t know–even now–whether they are discussing the most or the least stringent, but its almost as if there was a news blackout on this issue. The EU leaders were to have voted, I think last Tuesday or Wednesday on the issue, but I haven’t heard, or bothered to chase down, the result.

    Anyway, without the Green Shift or something similar, the EU is most likely not going to look at us as trading partners.

  49. Doesn’t the EU have a cap and trade system for carbon? I’d be surprised if environmental regulation was the deal-breaker between the EU and Canada – there’s supply management, investment restrictions (particularly in the financial sector), regional development grants…To be honest, I thought Paul was right when he earlier argued that the EU is not interested in Canada as a trade partner in any event.

  50. Al W:

    At least I don’t defend liars, lie for them and make up excuses for their lies, like Conservative rank-and-file supporters do all the time, day in and day out.

    The big reason I can’t vote Conservative is because of Conservative supporters themselves.

  51. Al, just as it amazes people that others vote Conservative despite the shenanigans they have and will continue to get up to.

    Give Harper another mandate, I’m sure we’ll have plenty more scandal in the next 18-30 months.

  52. A big, under-reported Conservative scandal involves the one billion Harper let the Americans keep as a result of the softwood sell-out. Now that’s a slush fund…who knows what that’s been able to finance.

  53. Ti-Guy…Andrew

    The Liberals have been throwing mud for years trying to make something stick and create a scandal to no avail.

    The only real scandals are by the Liberals…ADSCAM,HRDC,Shawinigate,BDC,Gun Registry,etc etc.! Combined these have cost the taxpayers billions of dollars!

    As for the softwood deal all the lumber companys in Canada praised the deal…but the lawyers hated it! (Liberal Lawyers)

  54. CTV airs lies 6:00 news ottawa time on the Cadman affair!! we all know the specialist indicated the tape was taped over in some parts but not the part the Prime minister Stephen Harper was in conversation with Mr. Cadman(diseased) and to hear one of the CTV reporters by phone reporting a seconds report by Liberals?? saying exactly the same thing that the facts are ” part of the rape was taped over but the section where there was a conversation between Stephen Harper and Cadman very clear and it was not tampered with!! that was very clear from both the Liberal and the conservative experts!!

    MY QUESTION IS WHY IS THE CTV NEWS MEDIA TRYING TO CONFUSION THE CADMAN AFFAIR BY REPORTING LIES TODAY?? SURPRISE!! DOES IT MEAN THEY ARE PRO CONSERVATIVES INSTEAD OF REPORTING THE TRUTH TO THE CANADIANS???

    this is very confusing when a media station takes a stand to report falsehood….

  55. kanly:

    What CTV is reporting is that the tape WAS tampered with…surprise surprise…the Liberals would not have anything to do with that would they? I am waiting for Dion to take back all his childish yelling and screaming about this. Looks like they will end up owing Harper $3.5 Mil for having their mouths work faster than their brains.

    For your viewing pleasure the new Nanos Poll just came out and the Conservatives are in majority territory:

    Conserv 37%

    Libs 26%

    NDP 20%

    Bloq 8%

    Green 7%

  56. Al: I think you’ll find that you are looking at only one day of a 3 day tracking poll that is not supposed to be looked at that way.

    Especially when the other two days are 32.7%.

  57. Had the Liberals elected Ignatieff 2 years ago… they would be winning now.

    but:

    Bush-lite: 131

    Vendus: 80

    Good Anglos: 40

    Liberator: 55

    May: 1 (I wish)

    Arthur: 1 (I regret)

  58. “The only unambiguous winners are the Greens, having doubled their vote — who will get no seats.”

    Bringing Blair Wilson on board means they will actually lose 100% of their seats and open themselves to “Greens Wiped Out” headlines…

  59. Too bad the real losers are all Canadians and the environment. In some ways Dion has shown himself to be the strongest leader – he put forward a plan that knowingly would have dubious political support, but he did so because he knew it was the right thing to do. And don’t kid yourselves, all these guys know the same thing. They all hear the same reports from the same scientific community and advisers. All the parties realize that they need to tax emissions and that these costs will ultimately be born by the general population. Some of the parties decided that now was the time that Canada had to act. Some (one?) of the parties decided to slough it off for a few years with soft targets. I can’t believe how this issue was pushed to the sidelines and marginalized by propaganda. In 4 years it will be THE issue, in Canada and elsewhere, and we’ll realize how dumb we were to do (almost) nothing about it now.

  60. To Doug:
    “I can’t believe how this issue was pushed to the sidelines and marginalized by propaganda.”

    …And I can’t believe how much Canada has changed since I left 2 years ago!

    How is it that people who I originally thought fairly bright (i.e., Canadian public) can actually buy into this environmentalist alarmism propaganda and lies.

  61. As the Greens are really the new Communist Party, shouldn’t “tree hugger” really be “watermelon”?

    Green on the outside but RED to the core.

  62. Al W:

    The poll you quoted is the decided voters.

    There’s still 16% undecided, according to the same CPAC-Nanos release. Please don’t confuse us.

  63. I’m still looking for the blog.

  64. Ti-Guy:
    “The big reason I can’t vote Conservative is because of Conservative supporters themselves.”

    That’s great. You don’t hate the party, or the policies, or the ideology, you hate… the actual people.

    You have now surpassed ‘Wayne’, ‘jwl’, and ‘boudica.’ It is between you and ‘kody’ for the “most-insulting-and-least-intersting-partisan commenter-award” here at Macleans.ca. Congratulations on reaching the finals.

  65. Dear Canadians,

    Best of luck at the polls today. Unfortunately we have not been invited to participate and therefore we will be unable to join you. We hope you will be satisfied with the substitutes you have chosen: Central Planning, Coercion, Rent Seeking, Moral Hazard, Omnipotent Bureaucracy, Perverse Incentives and Economic Sophistry.

    Signed,

    Common Sense
    Self Sufficiency
    Private Property
    Entrepreneurialism
    Thriftiness
    Sound Currency
    Responsibility
    Freedom

  66. Doug
    “Too bad the real losers are all Canadians and the environment…In 4 years it will be THE issue, in Canada and elsewhere, and we’ll realize how dumb we were to do (almost) nothing about it now.”

    Or, in 4 years it will be shown to be one of the silliest fads ever to become a major “issue”. My money’s on fad.

  67. Of harper had handled the in and out scandal like Martin handled the sponsorship scandal, he’d be praiseworthy indeed.

    Obviously Martin had self-serving reasons for the Gomery inquiry – he knew he hadn’t personally done anything, and that he might be able to make the “old liberals” look bad. but at least he did the right thing. And Harper’s unwillingness to acknowledge that pretty much ended the hope that we’d see a better class of politics where parties could take responsibility for their actions. Now it’s harper’s turn, and he knows that investigations and coming clean aren’t the way to go – what you do is make ridiculous accusations about elections Canada.

  68. EPIC FAIL.

    What a loser. Now we are stuck with this creep well beyond his best before date. Meanwhile the next majority Prime Minister Rae / Ignatieff (take your pick) folds his arms and smiles.

    What a dork.

  69. From yesterday:

    “1. Less votes = less money. The govenment is not changing this election, so turnout will probably be 60%, for a 7% revenue drop. They will likely receive around 25% of the popular vote, a further 17% drop in vote count, the combined result being a roughly a 25% reduction in pulic subsidy.”

    AC, I don’t know if your prognostication qualifies as eery, but my numbers do.

    If my step 2 happens, we are in interesting times. Of course, that could only happen if we have a PM who plays the long game, and thinks getting rid of the LPC is a good thing…………………

  70. “Now it’s harper’s turn, and he knows that investigations and coming clean aren’t the way to go – what you do is make ridiculous accusations about elections Canada.”

    The Chretien approach to scandals works. It gave us three straight majority governments that got things done. If I were Harper I would take some golf balls my inquiry.

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