Nanolyse this! (33/27/22/9/10)


Conservatives: 33 (+1)

Liberals: 27 (-1)

NDP: 22 (-)

Greens: 9 (+1)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-)

Undecided 17 (-1)

Examine the latest entries in the case file here.


Nanolyse this! (33/27/22/9/10)

  1. Liberal pollster Nic Nanos has caught up with what all the other pollsters have been saying for days now. The Liberals are frozen at 32% in Ontario, down 8 from their result in 2006 when they captured well over half of their seats 54 on 40% of the Ontario vote.

    It’ll be a strong Conservative minority government.

    Welcome aboard Nic!

  2. Further to my post above, the NDP are up to 26% in Ontario, and trending upwards. They were at 19% in Ontario in ’06 so they’re way up. Speaking of way up the Greens got 4.5% in Ontario in ’06, Nanos has them at twice that much this go round in Ontario at 9% and trending upwards. With the Conservatives up from their ’06 numbers in Ontario as well, one can only draw one conclusion: the Libs will be pulverized in Ontario on Tuesday.

  3. You’re going to join the projection pool, right, Jarrid? It closes tomorrow at 6, but if you’re feeling confident, make your guess now!

  4. Kady, is there a particular thread where you’re collecting said predictions, or just by email?

  5. dark – whistling – graveyard Jarrid!
    Did you factor in the seats Harper is going to lose in Quebec yet – I’m hearing net (-10) – maybe MacKay in Atlantic – Lunn in BC – it’s a good job you folks still have believers in Alberta!
    I also think Jack is overblown – if you look at his leadership numbers – they dropped all over – now trailing Dion – so – all the bucks spent on Advertising the next Prime Minister of Canada blowing in the wind.
    I see a small CPC minority – but then the GG is going to be presented with a coalition option..which she might find attractive…

  6. hmmm….
    I predict a tie.
    Or, if not an e x a c t tie, damn close to one. Which, of course, means that we’ll be doing this again come easter.

  7. A reader – there’s a thread – I’ll bump it. Not sure if I can make it an ITQ-specific sticky, but I’ll see what I can do.

  8. Wascally;

    MacKay is up 20 points on May. He will sail to victory.

    Word from the Island is that Lunn is tracking better than Penn. I expect a hold.

    A loss of 10 in Quebec is ridiculous. At most a loss of 4-5, but if 2006 is any indication it may be a surprise hold of all 11 seats, perhaps with gains.

    The momentum is clearly on the CPC side, and there is no majority talk this time around to quell that momentum.

    Finally, a coalition? Seriously? Yeah, I’m sure that would be met by the voters very nicely.

  9. CPC 121
    Libs 101
    Bloc 54
    NDP 30
    Green 1
    Independent 1

  10. Is that your prediction, WW? If so, would you mind reposting it in the dedicated thread (which should be at the top of the page now)? Easier to stick ’em all in one place.

  11. Here’s a prediction I’m ready to make right now Kady and WW. Conservatives lose no Quebec seats, not a one!

    You’ll have trouble changing the channel Tuesday night WW. The story will be the other parties’ pincer movements on the Libs in Ontario.

    About Quebec, the Conservatives did run a train wreck of a campaign there, you’ll get no argument from me on that. But that will result in no gains, which is a shame, but they’ll come out with their 2006 beachhead intact. The 08′ Tory campaign in Quebec was a missed opportunity.

    They got 10 seats in 06′ with 24.5 of the vote. A Leger poll which came out yesterday, has them at 23%.

    I back up my comments with figures and data WW. I don’t see much of those in your comment. 48 hours before the election and all the Lib cheerleaders have left is empty spin and rhetoric.

    P.S. – You’re wise not to add commentary justification to your electoral numerical prediction.

  12. Okay, there are probably a couple safe conclusions for Tuesday:

    -Harper will be PM, and likely with a minority
    -The NDP ain’t gonna be the official opposition. Sorry. Their vote is so ridiculously inefficient that they’d have to be polling well over the Liberals to gain more seats.

  13. Jarrid, could you repost that in the dedicated thread? Much easier to keep track that way. BTW, has anyone else been running these numbers through the H&K predictor? Both the national numbers and the regional breakdown deliver fascinating results. I won’t bore you with the details, but my favourite is how the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois may end up tied for third party status with 54 seats each, which would make for some great House wrangling, I suspect.

  14. Ah, Jarrid – it is known that Nanos is a conservative – so get over your paranoia.

  15. 17% undecided when twice that amount won’t even vote.

    what are we measuring?

  16. Anyone know when the “pollsters” have to stop publishing their numbers due to EC law??

    just curious

    thanks in advance

  17. Kady AND Jarrid,

    Hi, Aye.

    Dunno who’s right, who’s wrong…

    Foo Fighters say:

    Is someone getting the best of you?
    I’ve got a another confession, my friend
    I’m no fool
    I’m getting tired of starting again
    Somewhere new
    Were you born to resist or be abused?
    I swear I’ll never give in I refuse

  18. I see that the balanced and well-respected Stephen Maher of the Halifax Chronicle Herald concurs with my view:

    “Ontario, for 20 years the base of Liberal support, will likely be bluer on Wednesday than it has been since the Mulroney era. This will continue a trend that began in 2003, when the Tories and Canadian Alliance merged.

    Mr. Harper struggled in the middle of this campaign to respond to the collapse of stock markets, but the polls show his message of resolve has prevailed over Mr. Dion’s message of change. That should boost the Tory seat count in Ontario, giving Mr. Harper a stronger minority.”

  19. Mr. Maher is not only balanced and well-respected, but is one of my favourite people in the world – but I still have every confidence that I will beat him senseless in the Hot Room pool.

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