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Nanomatopoeia – THWAP! (35/28/19/8/10)


 

Conservatives: 35 (-)

Liberals: 28 (-2)

NDP: 19 (+1)

Greens: 8 (-1)

Bloc Quebecois: 10 (-)

Undecided: 16 (-)

Click.


 
Filed under:

Nanomatopoeia – THWAP! (35/28/19/8/10)

  1. Cons dropped in Quebec, Libs dropped in Alberta. MOE gives enough wiggle room for all to be pleased.

  2. It’s the west, for the love of God, not Alberta.

  3. It looks like the debates have had almost ZERO effect on the popularity of any party. Surprise Surprise!

  4. The Undecideds call it wtf? no change Saturday. Usually, followed with an increase or a decrease on forgive me Sunday, but not necessarily.

  5. Cady, Mr. Wells et. al.

    Time for the release of the negative adds pronto

    Not much time left.

    Question: Why do liberals love to kill innocent babies so much, I mean mention the word “life” and Cady and her fellow liberals go crazy chanting:

    “let us Kill” ….”Let us Kill”….”let us kill”

    just askin

    just askin

  6. I still find it strange that polls with -1 for the Liberals seemed to make headlines with “Liberals Losing Ground” but the +5 poll after the debates received no mention from the mainstream media..

  7. WE CAN DO THIS! Now is the time to throw the kitchen sink, to firm up & increase our support. NOW NOW NOW! The Coyne Two-Step gives us an opening – we are once again the bridge from QC to ROC. I WANT MY CANADA BACK!-again & again. Harper Cons bad, uncanadian, vs. Dion Libs good, Great Canadian, LIBS=PARTY OF CANADA: Team & History – Laurier, King, St-Laurent, Pearson, Trudeau, Chrétien, Martin, Dion! “We had teams then, we have team now!” “We’ve always stood up for Canada. We’re doing it again. Oct 14, help us bring Canada back (from the brink?)” Do it do it do it!

    Coyne: “But there is a kind of two-step that goes on between Ontario and Quebec voters at election time. To win seats in Ontario, especially urban Ontario, you must first show that you have at least some degree of credibility in Quebec. But once you have established yourself as a contender in Ontario — and therefore as a potential government — that is when Quebecers really take a look at you. And so on, back and forth. Quite how, and when, that little dance takes place is hard to predict. It is, as the game theorists say, an “unstable equilibrium.”
    http://andrewcoyne.com/2006/01/three-tipping-points.php

  8. funny i lived in Ontario all my life and NEVER have I even been aware of how Quebec is voting.

    Nice try, but don’t panic, Stephan Harper will fix everything

    lower taxes, tax free savings plan, etc.

  9. Usually a slow response for numbers to come out, however, they will show up shortly after they have been tallied. Cons are still leaders overall and unless there is a gaffe, they are expected to score a minority at the very least.
    Mr. Harper is still the top choice to lead Canada by the majority of Canadians.

  10. It just goes to show you can’t win an election if you don’t keep loading up the gravy train to Quebec with new pork.

  11. Look for more pork for Quebec in the Conservative platform.

  12. I guess the blip in Nanos showing a Liberal upswing due to Dion not falling on his face in the french debate is already receding.

    Eugene Forsey Liberal, sorry to rain on your parade but the Liberal party is toast in Quebec, they didn’t even try out there this election except Trudeau’s kid who may win his riding.

    “..help us bring Canada back (from the brink?)”

    It’s the Liberal Party of Canada, with it’s Trudeau-style centralism that brought us to the bring in 1995. My goodness people have short memories!

    Decima has the Libs at 22% in their rolling poll today folks. Nanos is the only pollster that has them over 25%. 28% what Turner got in the 1984 Liberal debacle. Just bringing some cold realism to the discussion folks.

  13. “the Liberal party is toast in Quebec, they didn’t even try out there this election except Trudeau’s kid who may win his riding.”

    That’s why it’s outpolling the CPC there?

  14. Forget these numbers, I want the polls from three weeks in the future that apparently the Liberal party is sitting on to release at their cunning convenience.

    WHY ARE YOU HOARDING THE NUMBERS, CADY/KADY??!!!

  15. Coyne is correct….the argument used againt the conservatives was that they werent a national party. That they couldnt realy defeat the bogeyman of unity challenges…remember charest looked quite weak and there were numerous challenges.

    Ontario voters were subject to this, Toronto voters and the chattering classes in particular. You forget how unlikely it was that the Cons would even get 2 seats in Quebec.

    The two step continues and ridings that should have been Con last time in Ontario and hung on Liberal look to fall into the Conservative column this time.

  16. Andrew, contrary to everyone’s expectations, Dion didn’t actually fall on his face or start crying in the french debate. He’s had a post-debate bump as a result.

    In the English debate, as Vincent Marissal of La Presse said, it looked like he was going to actually start crying during one of his jousts with Harper. He didn’t do well in the English debate for a variety of reasons, not all of which were his fault. The Lib numbers will continue to drop.

    The last CROP poll had the the Libs tied with the NDP at 16%, both well behind the Conservatives and the Bloc. If you’re a Nanos kool-aid drinker, you’ll prefer his regional Quebec numbers with their hopelessly high margin of error, but for the non kool-aid drinkers out there CROP is authoritative.

  17. The interesting point on Nanos other than showing the conservative maxed out at 35% (along with harris and ekos) is the gradual but real trend in the leadership rankings between harper and dion and layton..the gap is shrinking and shrinking fast. The last week of the election will be fast and furious!!!
    Francesco

  18. I watched the English debates. I didn’t see no crying by Dion. His performance was uneven, but he did well.

    I’m going to the store now, anybody need anything?

  19. Am I the only one who’s noticed that Dion’s leadership numbers are down in this poll, like way down?

    “Stephen Harper 89 (+10)
    Jack Layton 59 (+11)
    Stephane Dion 52 (-19)
    Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
    Gilles Duceppe 12 (+1)”

    He’s back behind Layton folks.

    Q. What will happen to the Lib numbers when the Wednesday night numbers are rolled out of the poll?

    Jarrid’s answer: The Liberal numbers will fall even further.

    It looks like yesterday’s poll was, as Liberal Attack dog Warren Kinsella said today, an outlier – that rogue one in twenty poll. (He said that by the way, before today’s new Nanos numbers.) It sure had tongues a-wagging at Blog Central yesterday, generating 112 comments.

  20. Dear bub Jarrid and Co. Bots –

    All that money and effort and yes – former respect – that you folks pee’d down the well to smear Dion with innuendo and negative advertising has just poisoned your own water…
    And now HE’s the one with a TEFLON coat…
    and if you actually analyzed the numbers – you would see that Layton’s current crescendo of stridency is due to the fact that he has shot his bolt and it fell far short of the target – Prime Minister of what pray?
    He’s encircled by Dion and May – and from now to Oct 14th will bleed to both of them…

  21. Wascaly Wabit

    i with you, I’m going to vote liberal and why??

    I miss the constitutional fights the libs and BQ had over the past 30 years.

    I miss the endless talks of “not with standing clauses”

    Talks of what Quebec really wants.

    The separation of families via the “old battle”

    I like it when families split along linguistic lines.
    I also like the endless non productive talk and concern about the constitution above EVERYTHING ESLE in the country.

    So for that reason and many other ( i like paying taxes to funnel into boon doggles – HRDC – gun registry, national day car that won’t help one child, but employ more government employees

    ya Dion is the er…well kinda a MAN??

    thanks Wabit for showing me the light

    P.S. I know Cady is right behind me …er well whatever

  22. WW – read Kinsella’s piece on the election to date and his prognosis that’s on his blog today. I have little time for Kinsella’s politics and methods, but I tip my hat to his acute political antenna.

    It’a probably the most accurate anaysis of the election to date, bar none.

  23. Two point up on Fri for the Libs,

    then two points down the very next day???

    After the cons surged just a few days previously?

    Nanos has become inherently unreliable.

    Best bet is to follow the “poll of polls” from the Globe.

    It will lag, yes,

    but it’ll likely be the most accurate.

  24. kody: Hrm. You seem to have difficulty tracking the poll.

    It was 4 points up on Friday for the Liberals, and mostly decreases for the CPC — save for two one-point gains, hardly surges — unless one goes back over a week.

  25. Conservative partisans praising the written word of Warren Kinsella. Funny.

  26. That said, the poll of polls isn’t necessarily the most accurate. It too has a margin of error, they just don’t tell you what it is.

  27. So the Globe led with the Harris-Decima Poll that says the Tories are at 35%, but that there also only two points between the Libs and NDP (22 to20), and the Greens are now up at 13%. Quite different from this one.

    So why do paper keep reporting on the actual poll numbers>???

  28. Two point up on Fri for the Libs, then two points down the very next day??? After the cons surged just a few days previously? Nanos has become inherently unreliable. [d o u b l e s p a c i n g removed

    How does a swing of a couple points make a poll ‘inherently unreliable?’

  29. Anyone know if Dion will go back to teaching in Montreal.

    He is very good in theory but not much good in reality, therefore he makes a great prof.

    P.s. Maybe Cady can attend his classes and get Dion to write her term paper. It would be just like old times. Then Cady could apply for employment at a regular, you know “news paper”

    just askin

  30. “One common view is that the use of government-sponsored polls constitutes an abdication of leadership.(53) On this, one observer remarked, “the essence of democracy is that we elect politicians to lead, to take risks, to stand for something more than the latest popular sentiment or the collective wisdom, which may be based more on short-term emotional or outright ignorance than anything else.”

    Author unknown unless harper siad it in a speech ? mulrooney should have taken the report to heart including how polls sway the populus and are outlawed in most democratic countries during periods of writ ?

  31. Love to see you play bob…

    The attempt at humour? Sorry…needs a lot more work.

    Austin

  32. Nobody pays any attention to Kinsella anymore. Doesn’t stop him from yelping from the sidelines, though :-)

    The poor guy still thinks he matters in Canadian politics, assuming that he ever really did except in his own fantasies and books.

  33. It’s not just a swing in two days.

    Nanos has been all over the place.

    In two days from now he’ll probably have the CPC up by fifteen points again, after showing just the day before yesterday it being virtually a tie (a notion that no one on the ground believed)

    The public simply doesn’t change its perceptions that wildly in such a short period of time, absent catastrophic events.

  34. comment by bob ward on Saturday, October 4, 2008 at 7:08 pm:

    ok ok

    watch the video on you tube (link below)

    Does that make up for steve’s Xmas pic where he was holding a childs hockey stick backwards or the utube of Dion’s wrist shot from centre ice against the boys in Kandhar ?

    Wonder who the goalie is . Who edited out his backhand score . You know eh ?

  35. Anon – you mean control-freak, in the tank Federal Liberal partisans like you don’t listen to Warren Kinsella, or more probably secretly read him and wished nobody else did.

    He’s currently rated 7th in Canada’s Top 25 political blogs this month.

    His piece today is a prime example of why his blog is one of Canada’s top-rated political blogs.

  36. Election Canada : Please run a full investigation on ” polling 2008 ” , who paid , who benefited and who made up the questions . Apparently our free press has all the methology ?

    Am I at least warm Kady ?

  37. kody, kody, kody. There you go proving my point that you have difficulty following the numbers.

    “[S]howing just the day before yesterday it being virtually a tie”? You mean yesterday when it was 35/30/18/10/9? (It couldn’t have actually been the day before yesterday, because that was 36/26/20/9/10.) So, two things:

    1. I’d hardly call 5 points “virtually a tie”.
    2. The margin of error has been approx. +/-3% for most of the campaign. You do know what that means, right?

    You know, you really should double check your data before spouting off — especially with the ‘Nanos’ category link at the bottom of the post that lets anyone easily check your claims.

  38. The “poll of polls” isn’t a poll at all.

    Just an aggragator of polls, like the US Realclearpolitics.

    As such, it diversifies out the outliers and gives one a pretty good picture.

    I suspect when Nanos has Harper up by around 15 again (which could be as early as tomorrow),

    you’ll all be in agreement that he’s unreliable.

    It seems that Liberals looking for a “safe harbour” amidst the sea of bad news are finding themselves with less and less options.

    By next week there will be no friendly ports of call.

    Just the prospect of being adrift in a sea of political dispair.

  39. Anyone know if Harper will be back working in economics, er, i guess will finally work in economics after his beach muscle man impression fails to overwhelm the proletariat despite having a garden path to walk in?
    Just because he can lower taxes like George Bush doesn’t seem to be guaranteeing sunshine and lollipops for CON ale spikers everywhere.
    Let the insurrection begin…

  40. “more probably secretly read him”

    I openly read him. I just don’t pay attention to him, Jarrid.

    I also read Small Dead Animals. I don’t pay attention to her either.

    Some of us are capable of thinking independently, something I hope you’ll learn some day.

  41. The eye of the storm approaches mateys,

    Battn down the hatches,
    the noreaster blows like the witches breath,
    as Dions fate draws near.

    harrrrr, harrrrr

  42. Opinion Polls Must Comply with Election Law
    Rules governing publishing poll results set out in Canada Elections Act
    OTTAWA, Tuesday, September 9, 2008

    The publication of opinion polls during the 40th general election is regulated by sections 326 to 328 of the Canada Elections Act.
    The first person or media outlet to release the results must indicate:

    who sponsored the survey (for example, the news organization or political party that paid for the poll)
    who conducted the poll
    when the poll was conducted
    the population from which the survey was drawn
    how many persons were contacted
    the survey’s margin of error
    if the survey was not conducted using recognized statistical methods
    Print and Internet publishers must include the wording of the survey questions and instructions on how readers can obtain the written report.
    The survey sponsor must make the written report available on request, at a cost of no more than $0.25 per page.
    Any media outlet that broadcasts or publishes survey results within 24 hours of initial publication must provide the same information.
    No new opinion survey results may be published on election day before polling stations close.
    Elections Canada is an independent body set up by Parliament.

    Information:
    Elections Canada Media Relations
    1-877-877-9515
    or at http://www.elections.ca

  43. “Some of us are capable of thinking independently, something I hope you’ll learn some day.”

    Why is it that lefties always seem to fall into ad hominem instead of simply making a point?

    You admit to reading Kinsella, thereby being another one of many who help “make him matter in Canadian politics” to quote your own words back to you. That’s why his is one of the top political blogs in Canada.

  44. The media narrative going into this last week seems to be the Conservatives slipping just out of majority contention, which is probably just what the Cons want it to be.

  45. The funny thing is… a Conservative minority wouldn’t at all make the Conservative party mad. Yes a majority would be better. But a minority keeps the Liberal neck under the Conservative boot.

    As broke as they are, with an upcoming ousting of Dion and subsequent leadership race, and the prospect of another election in a year or two, a Conservative minority is the Liberals worst nightmare.

    At least a Conservative majority would give them time to retool, try and find some money, and not have to worry about another election for 4 years.

  46. I’m sure that’s what Stephen Harper planned as well, months ago… slipping out of majority territory on the last week of the campaign. Brilliant.

  47. Reid, you do get the picture. Majority or minority, who cares? The Libranos have been morally and ethically bankrupt for some time, but now they face the prospect of financial bankruptcy as well. Harper will now address whoever has the misfortune to replace Dion with one of four options, depending on the day.

    Sit!
    Speak!
    Rollover!
    Play dead!

    Sad times for Liberal mutts.

  48. The Lib numbers will continue to drop.

    In order for something to continue doing something, they have to have been doing that something to begin with.

  49. The Tories are flirting with majority territory. Chantal Hebert said on the “At Issues Panel” on CBC on Thursday night that she didn’t think the Bloc stranglehold on Quebec votes was necessarily the final word and implied that the Tories could still pull it out of the fire.

    Who knows but Hebert has the Quebec pulse like few have. There is some voter volatility there.

  50. I’d like to see a regional breakdown in Quebec. Do the attacks on the Conservative (argued) cultural cuts and neglect of the manufacturing sector have that much resonance in Conservative target ridings?

    Also what are the Conservatives prospects in the 905? Their platform seems almost tailer-made to break through there.

  51. The public simply doesn’t change its perceptions that wildly in such a short period of time, absent catastrophic events.

    I clearly know a different public than you do.

  52. First of all, stewacide, the Conservatives don’t HAVE a platform until Tuesday, remember?

    Secondly, I cannot understand why anyone in Ontario would vote Conservative. I certainly understand the ‘what’s in it for me’ voting mentality–but an Ontario voter won’t get anything, unless they move to Alberta. We don’t get our proper number of seats in the House (alone of all the provinces), we don’t get the amount per capita for health care as other provinces, our manufacturing sector (a vital part of Ontario’s economics) is in trouble, and the Conservative answer is “don’t invest in Ontario”.

    Watching people prepare to stab themselves in their own gut is sad, and I just can’t understand the ideology that allows them to ignore all this.

  53. “Just an aggragator of polls”. Aggragator; a large angry reptile common to the equatorial regions, eg., Florida.

    I plagiarized that.

  54. Was just looking at the admittedly volatile and uncertain regional breakdowns. If the Liberals can have about a net 15 seat advantage over the Tories from the Altantic and Quebec, with the Tories having about a net 65 seat advantage for Manitoba west, looks like the Liberals would have to be pacing pretty much at about 75 seats minimum in Ontario to surpass the Tories overall. And if the Liberals can defend and improve their upwards momentum in the Atlantic and Quebec, that might well ease the steep hill to climb in Ontario, but still, what a challenge. I think the Liberals are well positioned with their economic attacks, but with so little time left, gotta wonder how effective it will be. They definitely will need to continue the argument that a vote for the opposing parties is a vote against one’s own personal economic interests, as well as that of the whole country. Will be interesting to see if they can win back support from other parties. I hope for an exciting finish.

  55. Cripes, watching Tory trolls like Jarrid there try to spin things is really, really sad. Especially when they have the example of Liberal spinning to learn from, and the (admitted) skill of Republican spinners to emulate.

    If that poll was an outlier, the numbers would have fallen more drastically today; that they didn’t implies that it wasn’t. And considering that the Liberal numbers continued to rise in Quebec and Conservative numbers continued to fall, I suspect that that trend is solid. The Conservatives may be able to arrest their slide, and may benefit from regional divisions in Quebec; but unless that cobbled-together platform is dynamite, it seems unlikely at best.

  56. As for Kinsella, it’s well known by now that he has an axe to grind over Dion’s audacity in not exiling each and every Liberal who supported Paul Martin to Siberia.

    (Or some such thing.)

    The only interesting thing about Kinsella’s latest piece was his revelation that Ian Brodie broke the Tory code of silence, implying that he might not be as happy with his hurried pre-election ouster as is generally implied. That’s a problem. A big one.

  57. Peter- I’m affraid I am not as happy as you about the notion that we will potentially have a PM (likely supported by less than 40% of the populace) who will have largely unchecked power and, according to you will treat those who oppose him like dogs. In most functioning democracies this is seen as a BAD thing.
    For what it’s worth I think that Majority vs. Minority has a BIG impact. The simple fact is that with the numbers as they are now there is no chance of a Majority. Not only are Tory nuumbers not high enough their vote concentration is too concentrated to get the required seats. The opposition (Liberal and otherwise) has started to hit its stride lately and if they can gain any momentum at all in the next couple of weeks they may be able to carry that into the next sitting of parliament thus making it work like a proper minority should. Also, depending on the size and distribution of the minonrity there is always the possibility that the Tories wont be in the driver’s seat at all. Only time will tell.

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