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NDP plummets in Quebec, up three points


 

A cautionary tale about polling. La Presse is on fire this morning with news of horrible performance by the NDP in Quebec. A CROP poll has the party down to 29% in Quebec, its lead over the second-place party diminished from 14 points to 5 since December. This would seem to make my blog post from December germane again. The one about how the NDP, which has more than half of its caucus in Quebec, now has to pick a leader to “consolidate” a “hold” on Quebec that is becoming less and less of a hold.

But then I note that the December blog post was based on a Harris Decima poll that had the NDP at 26%. Three points lower than their current low-water mark in the CROP poll. 

Now, polling methodology varies from firm to firm, so comparing one firm’s December results with another firm’s January is a shaky business. It does seem like the NDP’s “free fall” in Quebec may have stabilized in mid-air, still a little ahead of the other parties. All of this can change, of course, and certainly will many times before an election.

The other thing that strikes me is the Conservative party’s numbers. There’s a very strong consensus among Quebec commentators to the effect that Stephen Harper is doing everything he can to tick Quebecers off, with his gun registry repeal and his Royal this and Royal that and his pictures of the Queen and the rest. But CROP has the Conservatives up seven points since election day, a larger rise than any other party’s.

UPDATE: To confuse matters further, here’s yesterday’s Harris Decima, which puts the NDP at 32% and the Conservatives at 19%.


 

NDP plummets in Quebec, up three points

  1. I thought the Liberals were up by nine in the CROP poll which I believe is bigger than seven.

    • I thought election day was on May 2. For the “Liberals up 9” angle, La Presse takes a mid-summer poll as their starting point. If you take that post-election swoon out of the measurement, the Liberals are up only 5 since election day. Take a look at the chart in the story I linked.

      • You are absolutely correct.  I took my nine points from the La Presse article but the article in Le Soleil (and yet not part of SUN News, haha) shows the Conservatives having grown by seven to 24% since election day compared to the LIberals having grown by five points to 19%.

        N’empêche que le NPD has certainly dropped a fair bit in Québec, leading or not.

        As “they” say, “It’s not the per centage.  It’s the trend.”

    • Wells is a tory toady.

       At least he refrained from pointing out the libs had dropped to 10%[?] which is historically mindboggling for that party.

      I suppose the point is that both main federal parties are gaining at the expense of the bloc and ndp. I can see why the libs have moved – where else could they go but up thanks largely to Rae; but why the Tories are moving up is, as PW seems to imply, a puzzler.

      • Paul is no Tory toady.

        In my opinion, he just shows an unhealthy admiration for people who can practice the darker arts or politics “well.”

        He is also very good at calling shenanigans or bs on any number of things (e.g. – Rights and Democracy).

      • Paul is no Tory toady.

        In my opinion, he just shows an unhealthy admiration for people who can practice the darker arts or politics “well.”

        He is also very good at calling shenanigans or bs on any number of things (e.g. – Rights and Democracy).

        • Paul is no tory toady…gottcha :)

          Not often i get a smart one.

        • Paul is no tory toady…gottcha :)

          Not often i get a smart one.

          “In my opinion, he just shows an unhealthy admiration for people who can practice the darker arts or politics “well.”

          Agree.

          I followed his R&D stuff cheering all the way. Didn’t ya notice me?

      • “Wells is a tory toady”

        At least you have Aaron Wherry on your side….unless you are suggesting he is providing objective reporting and isn’t leaning “a tad bit” to the left?

        • Your gift for understatement is admirable.

          • What exactly is HCI understating? An inabilty to actually read posts or comprehend them once she has? 

        • I haven’t a clue what you’re on about. I thought it was clear enough even for you i don’t think any such thing of Wells. As for AW, he’s entitled to his opinion, which i suspect is rather more rooted in experience and informed opinion then anything you might have to say. It’s why i come to read him not you.

  2. hmmm polling.  I see NDP is Orange, Conservatives as Blue and the Liberals as Red.  After that its a mugs game.  Call me tomorrow, it’ll be different.  At the end of the day, for the electorate of any province, its who’s going to bribe me with enough of my own money for me to vote for them. 

  3. ” …. Stephen Harper is doing everything he can to tick Quebecers off … ”

    ‘Treat them mean, keep them keen’ strategy? 

    I doubt very much Harper is going out of his way to irritate Quebecers but surely Cons are aware they don’t need Que to win majority now or in future.

  4. Quebec and polling simply don’t get along. Oui? Non?

  5. How come so many polls keep coming out? I thought with an election more than three years away, we wouldn’t need to worry about who is up or down each month? 

  6. Update: BC

    12pts up for the ndp and the pipeline barney has only just begun. What if anything can the federal libs do about their errant provincial family members? Clark seems to be betting the farm on tacking right – that will likely hurt the federal libs too. I wonder if they’re are going to be caught in a queeze play between the conservatives and ndp?

    • There’s basically nothing Christy Clark can do to save the BC Libs, as long as the BC Conservatives are eating their lunch on the right.  Clark and the BC Libs are toast come next election, and Adrian Dix will be Premier — barring an absolute miracle or force majeure event (e.g., giant asteroid slamming into the province and obliterating it).

      • Intersting. First firm opinion i’ve heard from a non lib/ndper. I’m out of the prvince for most of the year these days so i can’t really say. Can’t say i’m sorry though. The BC libs blew whatever credibility they had and choosing Clark only made it worse imo.

  7. The polls are all over the place right now.

    Let’s just look at national Conservative support:
    Angus Reid, Jan 24: 39%
    Abacus, Jan 25: 37%
    Nanos, Dec 18: 37%
    Forum, Jan 19: 35%
    Harris Jan 22: 32%
    Ekos Jan 17: 31%

    http://abacusdata.ca/2012/01/25/national-political-report-january-2012/
    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44302/tories-lead-liberals-gain-but-remain-in-third-place-in-canada/
    http://www.forumresearch.com/news_public/20120119-TOStar-LiberalSupportClimbingWithBobRae.pdf
    http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/01/12/beyond-the-horserace-a-new-morning-or-just-mourning/
    http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

    We should simply ignore the pollsters that release crap.  Therefore we should rank the pollsters according to their results at election time, as shown here:
    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/05/ranking-pollsters.html

    From a statistical standpoint, polling firms should be able to
    accurately predict the result of each party within the poll’s margin of
    error.

    ….

    If we use this standard, at the national level we would have to
    eliminate all but Ipsos-Reid, Abacus Data (assuming a random sample for
    this online pollster), and Nanos Research. These are the only three
    firms whose national poll findings were within the margin of error of
    the sample.

    I agree with that standard, so I think we should ignore all those crap polls above and use Abacus and Nanos.  The Harris poll is crap.

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