New seat projection shows Liberals gaining even before Duffy spoke out -

New seat projection shows Liberals gaining even before Duffy spoke out

Conservatives are losing ground, polls show


Adrian Wyld/CP

The latest seat projection, showing how the federal parties would fare in an election, show the Conservatives losing ground even before Prime Minister Stephen Harper was thrown onto the defensive by the latest revelations in the Senate expense affair.

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy,  a research center at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., released projection this morning, based on own blending polls, conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 29, by Ekos, Ipsos, Abacus, Forum Research and, in Quebec only, CROP. The institute runs the data through its own model to forecast what the polls mean for the parties’ standing in the House of Commons.

Based on those mid-October samples, it projects 136 seats in the House for the Liberals, compared to 119 for the Conservatives and 72 for the NDP. In its previous projection, based on polls conducted from Aug. 12 to Sept. 9, the institute had the Liberals at 125, Tories at 124, and NDP at 81. So the fall trend is obviously upbeat for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Most of the opinion surveys relied on for today’s projection came before the Conservative leadership in the Senate moved to try to suspend embattled senators Mike Duffy, Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau. That means the polling was done mainly before Duffy’s explosive Oct. 22 speech in the upper chamber focused renewed attention on the episode in which Nigel Wright, Harper’s then-chief of staff, wrote Duffy a $90,000 cheque to allow him to pay back disputed Senate housing allowance payments.

Since Duffy’s speech, Harper has been on the defensive, and Mulcair has been playing his often effective prosecutor’s role in Question Period. So it is possible that polls conducted in late October and into November will register further erosion for the Conservatives and, New Democrats hope, reflect approval for their leader’s performance.

But these numbers, at least, suggest where the parties stood when the latest, extraordinary phase of the Senate saga began to dominate the federal scene:


Canada 136 119 72 10 1
Atlantic 25 4 3 0 0
Quebec 33 8 27 10 0
Ontario 55 48 18 0 0
Prairies/North 9 15 7 0 0
Alberta 3 30 1 0 0
British Columbia 11 14 16 0 1




New seat projection shows Liberals gaining even before Duffy spoke out

  1. Well there are 2 years to go, but Harp’s been in office 3X already which is about the public limit on a govt….any govt. And blotting his copy book this badly certainly isn’t helping.

    So unless there’s a miracle to pull his buns out of the fire…..

    • Hey! Have you read my Hockey Book?……… Can I buy you a Timmies?……. I’m all for the troops!………The NDP have a job killing Economy Destroying Carbon Tax………I don’t even know a Dean Del Mastro……. Justin Trudeau is a lesbian……. I HAVE PANDA BEARS!!!!

      • Ooooh pandas! LOL

  2. So it is possible that polls conducted in late October and into November will register further erosion for the Conservatives

    It’s also possible that current polls will show further erosion for the NDP and Liberals, especially since Duffy’s “speeches” didn’t in fact reveal anything new, and we now see the Liberals and NDP defending Duffy et al.’s theft of taxpayer money.

    • Here’s the straw you are grasping at…=========

    • Here is the straw you are grasping at ============

        • Conservatives at 30%(probably about what those seat projections were working with) – Rick is vindicated!
          But hey, if they could manage to split the rest of the vote a little closer, 30% would be a strong, stable mandate.

        • Except national percentages mean precisely nothing in a riding based system. If you have 100% in the riding of Oak Ridge, Ontario, and 10% in the ridings of Nunavut, Labrador, and the Yukon, you have an overall percentage of 72%.

          And you’ll only get 1 out of 4 seats.

          From your link we see that the CPC has a very large percentage in Alberta, SK, and Manitoba.. and losses everywhere else except Ontario.. where they’re tied with the NDP.

    • You’re right – obviously smooth sailing for Harper in 2015 and beyond.

  3. “So it is possible that polls conducted in late October and into November will register further erosion”

    And it is possible that they don’t.

    Nice to know which side you’re on, Geddes.

    “extraordinary phase of the Senate saga”

    Yep, there’s another advertisement for it. Keep up the cheerleading. Feel free to use the words “conspiracy” and “corruption” as much as possible. Assume that everybody in the government knew about everything and everyone outside the government knew about nothing.

    • most thinking people are asking questions about Harper’s conduct, especially in the case of the Senate scandal.
      True blue partisans: it was that nasty, duplicitous Nigel Wright

      • You must be confusing me for someone else. Who are you replying to? I’ve said nothing about Wright in that comment, nor have I ever said much of anything about Wright at all.

    • Thank you, I will.

  4. So Justin Trudeau hides in a cave for 5 months, and this is the best he can do? Wait until he starts talking publicly again, and making himself look like a fool.

    • He was busy in Washington this week, acting as a leader should.

      • Hahaha, “acting” like a drama teacher?

        He’s finally started pushing the KXL pipeline that Harper’s been pushing for years. Glad he’s finally figured out what’s good for Canada. Too bad it took him this long. I guess it takes longer to figure these things out between bong hits. I wonder if he shared his affection for smoking dope with the people down there.

        • Madeline Allbright looks like she enjoys a puff now and then.

        • Harper has been ineffective in pushing the XL pipeline, which was Trudeau’s point in Calgary. The Harper government’s denial of climate change and their hostile attitude toward environmental regulation gave ammunition to the Keystone opponents. If this government had a more moderate approach to governing, things might have been different.

          • So you’re saying that the Canadian government should just do whatever the American government tells us to? Talk about selling out Canadian sovereignty.

        • Harper’s pushing has gotten us where we are today. Clearly, if something needs to be promoted Harper is the last person you want doing it.

          • Got it. Harper pushing = bad. Junior pushing = good. Excellent and well argued points.

      • And then he was in Calgary talking to the oil crowd. What a hider.

        • FYI – parliament was sitting this week. But he’s too busy for such menial things, he’s got speeches to give. I wonder how much he was charging for those speeches.

  5. But how long will it be before most Canadians quietly forget the Senate saga after all is said and done?….if the allegations end up being the truths will this government come clean one way or another… or will they stay silent? It’s funny how most Canadians react & take notice to this kind of drama & hype, especially in a political arena, only to forget the seriousness of these events once they are no longer headlining news. And thus we repeat and repeat the course of events over and over only to stay in the same place time and time again, never moving forward. Never changing. Sad. Very sad.