New seat projection shows Tories up in Ontario


Barry Kay of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy sends along the latest LISPOP seat projection, and it shows the Tories picking up six seats in Ontario based on recent polling.

LISPOP projects seat counts in the House of Commons based on analysis of publicly available polls. In its Sept. 18 projection, using early-September polls from Ipsos, Nanos, Ekos and Strategic Counsel, the institute gave the Conservatives 134 seats, the Liberals 94, the NDP 31 and the Bloc 49.

But the new projection—blending the results of the Ekos Sept. 16-22 poll and the Ipsos Sept. 10-13 poll—sees the Tories up to 141 and the Liberals down to 88, with the NDP holding at 31 and the Bloc at 49.

The key part of the new projection is the Ontario shift. LISPOP had the Tories at 47 seats in Ontario earlier this month, tied with the Liberals. But taking into account the way the two more recent polls widened the Conservative lead in Ontario to eight points, LISPOP has the Tories climbing to 53 seats in the province and the Liberals slipping to 41.

The 2008 election returned 143 Tory MPs, 76 Liberals, 37 New Democrats, and 50 Blocquistes. Both of the two latest LISPOP projections show the Tories would lose four of their 10 Quebec seats, if voters cast their ballots in a way that reflected this month’s polling results.

Those Quebec losses would mean that to have any hope of a majority, the Conservatives need to make substantial Ontario gains. The latest projection charts some movement in that direction. Still, 144 remains long way from 155—the number of MPs needed for a House majority.

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New seat projection shows Tories up in Ontario

  1. What's the evidence on the reliability of seat projection models? Especially between election campaigns.

    • None….since you cant test it until there is an election.

      However, it is a worthwhile exercise to start to dig a little deeper in the polls and make some simple guesses about what it might mean. Dig even deeper and you can start to look at ridings that might be vulnerable for gain or loss for each party based on the numbers….which is always the play question "IF an election were held today….."

      But rathe rthan the horse race its more about trying to figure out how this is or is not affecting the parties and their strategies. It explains Jacks actions, it might explain some of Steve's actions….but does it explain Michael's actions???

      Back to EKOS and their Metro areas….there are some interesting questions that come up, which Liberals will get taken out in the GTA, would the Cons make 416 inroads based on these numbers? How vulnerable is Olivia Chow, based on the metro numbers from Ekos I would say its more likely than not that Jack would be sleeping on the couch if he let an election happen. Iggy might be in for an unpleasant surprise around Toronto and Steve might find his majority ambitions crashing like waves on the rocks of the East Coast.

  2. Nice to see the media driving the news cycle and the actions of politicians based on "science" like this.

    If only they'd do some real reporting.

    • Yeah, I too am sick and tired of the superficial John Geddes and his horse-race obsession.

  3. The numbers listed for the 2008 elections are inaccurate.
    The actual numbers as of election day:
    Conservative: 143
    Liberal: 77
    NDP: 37
    BQ: 49
    Independent: 2

    Currently 4 seats are vacant: 2 BQ, 1 NDP and 1 Independent.

    • Thanks very much. I've corrected the numbers in the post. (I had mistakenly typed in the previous LISPOP projection figures I had in front of me rather than the actual 2008 results.)

      By the way, in response to previous comments, I'm hardly trying to "drive the news cycle" with this stuff. It's just interesting to see what the widely reported polls might mean in terms of seats. As for the science of projections, it's about as good as the polling data fed into the models these guys use. Helpful but nothing to obsess over.

  4. No small wonder that Iggy is running around trying his best to get some .. I mean any press at all in anything relevant but much like Nero he is inundated by smoke from his own party burning out in Quebec. Meanwhile Harper has one of his best weeks yet and I have no doubt that by next friday Nanos rolling poll the regionals and leadership index will be looking even better for us CPC'ers – AH! there is nothing better than the smell of good polling trend lines in the morning!

    • As opposed to chubby stalin running around with surfboard sized cheques, donut science schmoozing, and continuing to denying Canadians of various origins the protection of Canadian citizenship?


      • Are you comparing Harper to Stalin?

  5. More good news! Will Ignatieff be backing down from all his threats this week, or will he wait till next week?

  6. And all of this is assuming that if there is an election campaign there are no further shifts in opinion. The assumption that the CPC will only loose 4 seats in quebec is probably off the mark. Leger and Leger leaves them with 1 or 2.

  7. Is it me or are there FAR too many pollsters and polls.

    • It's essentially reduced political journalism to crunching numbers and tossing out exclamation points like they're hockey pucks. Less polling and more political research by reporters would be a huge benefit to Canadian democracy.

    • Well, well, well, what do we see here.

      A couple of Liberal partisans complaining at the confirmation of political reality via a barrage of polls showing the Conservatives on the cusp of a majority. First they screamed they were outliers, now they just want pollsters and the media to stop publishing the polling results.

      • Thank you Jarrid for giving me a really good laugh. Partisan – you're not? That's just the point – a barrage of polls constantly.

        I did not mention the numbers, who's up or down – I just said too many polls – but you just wanted to get a useless partisan shot in.

        LOL, too funny about complaining about others being partisan.

  8. I know, I know, you have to feed the beast every day.

    But please, less polls, more news.

    • See my comment above.

    • Pontiac, maybe.

      Otherwise, Conservative losses go to Bloc, Bloc losses in Montreal area go to Libs.


    • These projections likely assume the CPC will lose seats to the Bloc and the Bloc will lose seats to the Libs. The final numbers may look like CPC seats in QC going to the Liberals but the reality is far different.

  9. Read in the Sept 28th edition of Macleans on page 19, “… if Harper doesn’t win a majority, he’s done..” So with a minority assured lets go to the polls. If another Harper minortiy, leads to the ousting of Harper as Leader and PM, whatever the cost of this election, it will be worth it!

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